Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Equatorial Energia S.A BRL 29.44, price BRL 39.79, upside -26.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$18.78 – R$44.97 · fair‑value band R$29.44 – R$49.67 · the R$39.79 price screens above the R$29.44 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Equatorial S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, distribution, and commercialization of energy in Brazil. The company is also involved in sanitation activities, such as water supply and sewage services; sewer connections, water meter installation, water connections, and reconnections; and construction related to works or improvements.
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Equatorial S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, distribution, and commercialization of energy in Brazil. The company is also involved in sanitation activities, such as water supply and sewage services; sewer connections, water meter installation, water connections, and reconnections; and construction related to works or improvements. In addition, it provides telephone service and internet telecommunications integration. The company was formerly known as Equatorial Energia S.A. and changed its name to Equatorial S.A. in August 2024. Equatorial S.A. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in São Luís, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3) currently trades at R$39.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$29.44, implying the stock looks roughly 35.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$43.35 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the R$39.79 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$13.73, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$29.44 (bear) to R$49.67 (bull), the price of R$39.79 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Equatorial Energia S.A reported revenue of R$52.1B in FY2025 versus R$23.6B in FY2021, a compound +21.9%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.7B in FY2025, compounding −17.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$50.0B (≈ $9.6B) · P/E ratio 71.1 · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) R$0.5600 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −26%, EQTL3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$29.44Fair Value R$29.44Bull R$49.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.5% vs 6.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 10%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (13 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−26.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.94× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)71.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.94× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.36× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA12.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.00× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)51· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)3· sector 53
DIVIDEND (yield)80· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Equatorial Energia S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EQTL3
Frequently asked questions
Is Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$29.44 versus a price of R$39.79, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EQTL3?
Our model-based fair value for Equatorial Energia S.A is R$29.44 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$39.79.
What is the quality score of EQTL3?
Equatorial Energia S.A has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$29.44 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$29.44, optimistic scenario R$49.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Equatorial Energia S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$29.44, about −26% upside versus a price of R$39.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$29.44, optimistic scenario R$49.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
Equatorial Energia S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$54.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Equatorial Energia S.A pay a dividend?
Equatorial Energia S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Equatorial Energia S.A it is R$29.44 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R$39.79. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Equatorial Energia S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, EQTL3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$39.79, fair value R$29.44, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EQTL3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$39.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$29.44). For Equatorial Energia S.A the two are R$10.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Equatorial Energia S.A worth?
The market values Equatorial Energia S.A at about R$50.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R$39.79; our models calculate a fair value of R$29.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EQTL3?
Our models span a range for Equatorial Energia S.A: cautious scenario R$29.44, base R$29.44, optimistic R$49.67 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R$39.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EQTL3?
Equatorial Energia S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 71.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$29.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 12.7.
What is the PEG ratio of EQTL3?
The PEG ratio of Equatorial Energia S.A is 3.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Equatorial Energia S.A (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 1.94 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EQTL3 from its 52-week high?
Equatorial Energia S.A trades at R$39.79, about 12% below its 52-week high of R$44.97 and 19% above the low of R$33.47 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$29.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Equatorial Energia S.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Equatorial Energia S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R$39.79, calculated fair value R$29.44 (−26%), Quality Score 36/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EQTL3 calculated?
We run Equatorial Energia S.A through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$29.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Equatorial Energia S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was R$39.79. Our model-based fair value is R$29.44, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Equatorial Energia S.A right now?
Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3) come from?
Earnings per share at Equatorial Energia S.A grew +10.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.2 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Equatorial Energia S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
The market capitalisation of Equatorial Energia S.A is R$50.0B (≈ $9.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Equatorial Energia S.A is 2.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
Earnings per share at Equatorial Energia S.A are R$0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 71.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
The dividend yield of Equatorial Energia S.A is 4.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
The net margin of Equatorial Energia S.A is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Equatorial Energia S.A is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Equatorial Energia S.A is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
The operating margin of Equatorial Energia S.A is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
Revenue at Equatorial Energia S.A is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3)?
Earnings per share at Equatorial Energia S.A are growing −54.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3) generate?
The free cash flow of Equatorial Energia S.A is −R$4.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Equatorial Energia S.A (EQTL3) carry?
The net debt of Equatorial Energia S.A is R$53.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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