Erbud SA (ERB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Erbud SA PLN 24.13, price PLN 18.10, upside +33.3%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 18.06 PLN – 88.33 PLN · fair‑value band 15.66 PLN – 32.59 PLN · the 18.10 PLN price screens below the 24.13 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Erbud S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction business in Poland and internationally. It constructs hotels, office buildings, schools, housing, shopping centers, hospitals, apartments, public utility facilities, and industrial facilities.
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Erbud S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction business in Poland and internationally. It constructs hotels, office buildings, schools, housing, shopping centers, hospitals, apartments, public utility facilities, and industrial facilities. The company engages in designing and construction of renewable energy, including solar and wind farm; and offers operation and maintenance services. In addition, it offers road engineering and renewable energy sources, engineering services, and support services; management services; modular timber construction; design services; and maintenance services in industrial construction. Additionally, the company engages in the development contracting activities in the renewable energy source business. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
Erbud SA (ERB) currently trades at 18.10 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 24.13 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 25.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 44.63 PLN per share, and 8 of the 8 models we run sit above the 18.10 PLN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 18.73 PLN, and 0 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 15.66 PLN (bear) to 32.59 PLN (bull), the price of 18.10 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Erbud SA reported revenue of 3.3B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.1B PLN in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −35.8M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 277M PLN (≈ $72.0M) · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) −3.45 PLN · Dividend yield 9.6% · Net margin −1.1% · Return on equity −5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin −2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 33%, ERB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 15.66 PLNFair Value 24.13 PLNBull 32.59 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.2% (2020) → 0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 838 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+32% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erbud SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERB
Frequently asked questions
Is Erbud SA (ERB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 24.13 PLN versus a price of 18.10 PLN, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ERB?
Our model-based fair value for Erbud SA is 24.13 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 18.10 PLN.
What is the quality score of ERB?
Erbud SA has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erbud SA (ERB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 24.13 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.66 PLN, optimistic scenario 32.59 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erbud SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 24.13 PLN, about +33% upside versus a price of 18.10 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 15.66 PLN, optimistic scenario 32.59 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Erbud SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Erbud SA pay a dividend?
Erbud SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erbud SA it is 24.13 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 18.10 PLN. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Erbud SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ERB trades below its calculated fair value: price 18.10 PLN, fair value 24.13 PLN, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (18.10 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (24.13 PLN). For Erbud SA the two are 6.03 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erbud SA worth?
The market values Erbud SA at about 277M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 18.10 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 24.13 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERB?
Our models span a range for Erbud SA: cautious scenario 15.66 PLN, base 24.13 PLN, optimistic 32.59 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 18.10 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erbud SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.7%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERB from its 52-week high?
Erbud SA trades at 18.10 PLN, about 48% below its 52-week high of 34.80 PLN and at the low of 18.06 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 24.13 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erbud SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erbud SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 18.10 PLN, calculated fair value 24.13 PLN (+33%), Quality Score 51/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERB calculated?
We run Erbud SA through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 24.13 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Erbud SA currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 18.10 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 24.13 PLN, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erbud SA right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (15.66 PLN to 32.59 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Erbud SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The market capitalisation of Erbud SA is 277M PLN (≈ $72.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erbud SA is 0.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Earnings per share at Erbud SA are −3.45 PLN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The dividend yield of Erbud SA is 9.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The net margin of Erbud SA is −1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erbud SA is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Erbud SA (ERB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Erbud SA is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The operating margin of Erbud SA is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erbud SA (ERB)?
Revenue at Erbud SA is growing −20.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erbud SA (ERB)?
Earnings per share at Erbud SA are growing −92.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Erbud SA (ERB) generate?
The free cash flow of Erbud SA is −61.4M PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Erbud SA (ERB) carry?
The net debt of Erbud SA is 116M PLN (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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