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Erbud SA (ERB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Erbud SA stock PLN 20.86, price PLN 24.20, that is 13.8% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials PL · ISIN PLERBUD00012

ES Erbud SA logo Some data Nov 9, 2026

Erbud SA

ERB · WAR
Expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 14% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 51/100
Some data
Fair value 20.86 PLN · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −5.5 %/yr in PLN)
Loss-making · -10.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

83.46 PLN 18.06 PLN Fair Value 20.86 PLN Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 18.06 PLN – 83.46 PLN · fair‑value band 15.66 PLN – 31.13 PLN · the 24.20 PLN price screens above the 20.86 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Erbud S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction business in Poland and internationally. It constructs hotels, office buildings, schools, housing, shopping centers, hospitals, apartments, public utility facilities, and industrial facilities.

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The company engages in designing and construction of renewable energy, including solar and wind farm; and offers operation and maintenance services.

In addition, it offers road engineering and renewable energy sources, engineering services, and support services; management services; modular timber construction; design services; and maintenance services in industrial construction.

Additionally, the company engages in the development contracting activities in the renewable energy source business. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Warsaw, Poland.

Stock analysis

Erbud SA (ERB) currently trades at 24.20 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.86 PLN, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 24.13 PLN per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the 24.20 PLN price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 18.46 PLN, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 15.66 PLN (bear) to 31.13 PLN (bull), the price of 24.20 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Erbud SA reported revenue of 3.3B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.1B PLN in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −35.8M PLN in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 289M PLN (≈ $73.7M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) −1.80 PLN · Dividend yield 9.0% · Net margin −1.1% · Return on equity −9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −14%, ERB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 15.66 PLN Fair Value 20.86 PLN Bull 31.13 PLN
Price 24.20 PLN · Downside -13.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV 17.66 PLN 18.46 PLN 19.10 PLN 74
ROIC Compounder 17.66 PLN 18.46 PLN 19.10 PLN 72
EV/EBITDA 52.39 PLN 73.10 PLN 93.81 PLN 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV 17.66 PLN 18.46 PLN 19.10 PLN 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT 15.66 PLN 24.13 PLN 32.59 PLN 65
EV/EBITDA 52.39 PLN 73.10 PLN 93.81 PLN 67
EV/Revenue 8.39 PLN 16.16 PLN 23.93 PLN 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 15.57 PLN 20.86 PLN 31.13 PLN 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 17.66 PLN 18.46 PLN 19.10 PLN 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 29
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 19
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 38
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 65
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 30
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 26
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.2% (2020) → 0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ERB screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −13.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −10.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 2.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −5.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 9.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.33× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.67× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.09× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)15 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)83 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vinci SA DG €111.60 €186.68 +67% vs ERB
Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX $1,018 $1,119 +10% vs ERB
EMCOR Group EME $608.45 $524.14 −14% vs ERB
ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS €87.00 €62.21 −28% vs ERB
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 273,500 KRW 159,702 KRW −42% vs ERB
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,118 ₹2,302 −44% vs ERB
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €365.60 €203.86 −44% vs ERB
APi Group APG $40.87 $19.20 −53% vs ERB
Ferrovial N.V FER $58.71 $23.06 −61% vs ERB
Quanta Services, Inc PWR $540.90 $162.41 −70% vs ERB

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Erbud SA: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erbud SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERB

Frequently asked questions

Is Erbud SA (ERB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 20.86 PLN versus a price of 24.20 PLN, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ERB?
Our model-based fair value for Erbud SA is 20.86 PLN (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.20 PLN.
What is the quality score of ERB?
Erbud SA has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erbud SA (ERB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 20.86 PLN (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.66 PLN, optimistic scenario 31.13 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erbud SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 20.86 PLN, about 14% lower versus a price of 24.20 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 15.66 PLN, optimistic scenario 31.13 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Erbud SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Erbud SA pay a dividend?
Erbud SA currently shows a dividend yield of 8.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Erbud SA has a dividend yield of 9.0%.
What is the intrinsic value of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erbud SA it is 20.86 PLN per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of 24.20 PLN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Erbud SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ERB trades above its calculated fair value: price 24.20 PLN, fair value 20.86 PLN, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.20 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (20.86 PLN). For Erbud SA the two are 3.34 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erbud SA worth?
The market values Erbud SA at about 289M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is 24.20 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 20.86 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERB?
Our models span a range for Erbud SA: cautious scenario 15.66 PLN, base 20.86 PLN, optimistic 31.13 PLN per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price 24.20 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erbud SA (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −9.1%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERB from its 52-week high?
Erbud SA trades at 24.20 PLN, about 30% below its 52-week high of 34.80 PLN and 34% above the low of 18.06 PLN (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 20.86 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erbud SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erbud SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price 24.20 PLN, calculated fair value 20.86 PLN (−14%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERB calculated?
We run Erbud SA through 6 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 20.86 PLN builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Erbud SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 24.20 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 20.86 PLN, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erbud SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (15.66 PLN to 31.13 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Erbud SA

How large is the market capitalisation of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The market capitalisation of Erbud SA is 289M PLN (≈ $73.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erbud SA is 0.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erbud SA (ERB)?
Earnings per share at Erbud SA are −1.80 PLN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The dividend yield of Erbud SA is 9.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The net margin of Erbud SA is −1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erbud SA is −9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Erbud SA (ERB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Erbud SA is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Erbud SA (ERB)?
The operating margin of Erbud SA is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erbud SA (ERB)?
Revenue at Erbud SA is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erbud SA (ERB)?
Earnings per share at Erbud SA are growing −92.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Erbud SA (ERB) generate?
The free cash flow of Erbud SA is −61.4M PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Erbud SA (ERB) carry?
The net debt of Erbud SA is 116M PLN (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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