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Erste Group (ERBAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Erste Group CZK 2,525, price CZK 2,775, upside -9.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Erste Group
ERBAG · PRNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
Quality 62/100
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.4 %/yr in EUR)
Highly profitable · 30.4% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Wide moat 68/100
Fair value 2,525 CZK · Fairly valued (−9.0%)
Some data
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 447.69 CZK – 3,008 CZK · fair‑value band 1,894 CZK – 3,156 CZK · the 2,775 CZK price screens above the 2,525 CZK fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Erste Group Bank AG provides a range of banking and other financial services to retail, corporate, and public sector customers.
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Erste Group Bank AG provides a range of banking and other financial services to retail, corporate, and public sector customers. It offers savings and current accounts, and term deposit products; consumer credit and mortgage lending; commercial real estate, investment loan, acquisition and leveraged finance, project finance, and product neutral financial advice; and factoring, accounts receivable purchasing, working capital finance, and structured trade finance, and ErsteConfirming, a supply chain finance solution. The company also provides interests and FX hedging, letters of credit, documentary collections, and guarantees; cash-management solutions, such as cash pooling, payment transactions, digital banking, payment factory, VIRTUAL.IBAN, and POS-terminals and e-commerce; equity interests and investments, revolving export credit lines, and customer financing. In addition, it offers loan syndication, debt capital market, and equity capital market services; custody and brokerage services, including safekeeping, settlement, corporate action events, tax reclaim assistance, proxy voting, brokerage services, securities lending, clearing services for remote members on Vienna Stock Exchange, and market news services; and George, a digital retail product. The company operates in Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, and internationally. Erste Group Bank AG was founded in 1819 and is based in Vienna, Austria.
Stock analysis
Erste Group (ERBAG) currently trades at 2,775 CZK, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,525 CZK, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 2,311 CZK per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the 2,775 CZK price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,106 CZK, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 1,894 CZK (bear) to 3,156 CZK (bull), the price of 2,775 CZK sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Erste Group reported revenue of €11.8B in FY2025 versus €7.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was €3.5B in FY2025, compounding +16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1T CZK (≈ $49.6B) · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 4.00 · EPS (TTM) 206.90 CZK · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 29.8% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −9%, ERBAG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,894 CZK
Fair Value 2,525 CZK
Bull 3,156 CZK
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (156.45 CZK per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
1,586 CZK
1,970 CZK
2,891 CZK
75
P/E Multiple
2,149 CZK
2,865 CZK
3,581 CZK
63
P/B Multiple
1,734 CZK
2,311 CZK
2,889 CZK
55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple
2,149 CZK
2,865 CZK
3,581 CZK
63
P/B Multiple
1,734 CZK
2,311 CZK
2,889 CZK
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
825.53 CZK
1,106 CZK
1,651 CZK
51
Economic Profit
Residual Income
1,586 CZK
1,970 CZK
2,891 CZK
75
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Profitability
45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+34.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%
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Compare Erste Group with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1058 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 78.00 SGD | 40.39 SGD | −48% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 600036 | ¥40.69 | ¥52.73 | +30% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €79.53 | €77.12 | −3% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $11.05 | $6.82 | −38% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.38 | €4.06 | −36% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €91.54 | €105.99 | +16% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK | ₹721.20 | ₹406.44 | −44% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 32.01 SGD | 19.78 SGD | −38% |
| Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 | 63.15 SAR | 36.95 SAR | −41% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €12.03 | €8.46 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Erste Group (ERBAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,525 CZK versus a price of 2,775 CZK, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ERBAG?
Our model-based fair value for Erste Group is 2,525 CZK (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,775 CZK.
What is the quality score of ERBAG?
Erste Group has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erste Group (ERBAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,525 CZK (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,894 CZK, optimistic scenario 3,156 CZK. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erste Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,525 CZK, about −9% upside versus a price of 2,775 CZK (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 1,894 CZK, optimistic scenario 3,156 CZK. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
Erste Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Erste Group pay a dividend?
Erste Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Erste Group (ERBAG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Erste Group would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ERBAG use?
Our models discount Erste Group at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for Czechia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Erste Group that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Erste Group (ERBAG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Erste Group grew +10.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Erste Group (ERBAG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Erste Group (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.46 %: that much free cash flow Erste Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erste Group it is 2,525 CZK per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 2,775 CZK. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Erste Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, ERBAG trades above its calculated fair value: price 2,775 CZK, fair value 2,525 CZK, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERBAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,775 CZK); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,525 CZK). For Erste Group the two are 250.18 CZK per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erste Group worth?
The market values Erste Group at about 1.1T CZK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 2,775 CZK; our models calculate a fair value of 2,525 CZK per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERBAG?
Our models span a range for Erste Group: cautious scenario 1,894 CZK, base 2,525 CZK, optimistic 3,156 CZK per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 2,775 CZK). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ERBAG?
Erste Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,525 CZK is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.6, P/B 1.9, P/S 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ERBAG?
The PEG ratio of Erste Group is 7.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erste Group (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 12.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERBAG from its 52-week high?
Erste Group trades at 2,775 CZK, about 8% below its 52-week high of 3,008 CZK and 39% above the low of 1,998 CZK (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,525 CZK is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erste Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erste Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 2,775 CZK, calculated fair value 2,525 CZK (−9%), Quality Score 62/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERBAG calculated?
We run Erste Group through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,525 CZK, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Erste Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 2,775 CZK. Our model-based fair value is 2,525 CZK, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erste Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Erste Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The market capitalisation of Erste Group is 1.1T CZK (≈ $49.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erste Group is 4.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
Earnings per share at Erste Group are 206.90 CZK (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The dividend yield of Erste Group is 0.0% (payout 0.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The net margin of Erste Group is 29.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erste Group is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Erste Group is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Erste Group (ERBAG)?
The operating margin of Erste Group is 43.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erste Group (ERBAG)?
Revenue at Erste Group is growing +28.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erste Group (ERBAG)?
Earnings per share at Erste Group are growing +18.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Erste Group (ERBAG) carry?
The net debt of Erste Group is €13.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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