ERG S.p.A (ERG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · IT · Market cap €3.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €8.04 to €7.60 (−5.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €14.62 – €29.83 · fair‑value band €6.03 – €9.50 · the €21.68 price screens above the €7.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
ERG S.p.A (ERG) currently trades at €21.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.60, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ERG S.p.A generated revenue of €776M at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 14.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. Net debt stands at €2.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €6.03 (bear case) to €9.50 (bull case); at €21.68, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -65%, ERG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€9.97) versus Growth DCF (€3.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when ERG reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ERG S.p.A., through its subsidiaries, produces energy through renewable sources in Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, Bulgaria, Sweden, Romania, the United States of America, and Spain. It also generates electricity through wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric power plants, as well as natural gas cogeneration plants.
Full company description
ERG S.p.A., through its subsidiaries, produces energy through renewable sources in Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, Bulgaria, Sweden, Romania, the United States of America, and Spain. It also generates electricity through wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric power plants, as well as natural gas cogeneration plants. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Genoa, Italy. ERG S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Sq Renewables S.p.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ERG S.p.A reported revenue of €744M in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was €65.0M in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −19.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ERG screens 65% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ERG SpA (FRA:ER9) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Solid H1 Results and Strategic PPA Signal ...
- ERG SpA (STU:ER9) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth Amid Market Challenges
- ERG SpA (FRA:ER9) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth Amid Strategic Investments
- A Closer Look at ERG (BIT:ERG) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Surge
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
Compare ERG S.p.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Utilities stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is ERG S.p.A (ERG) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of ERG?
What is the quality score of ERG?
What is the revenue of ERG S.p.A (ERG)?
What is the net profit margin of ERG?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track ERG S.p.A and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.