Empire State Realty OP, L.P. (ESBA) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.4B
Empire State Realty OP, L.P.
ESBA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $2.91 to $3.00 (+3.1%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −12.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.71 – $11.61 · fair‑value band $2.25 – $3.75 · the $4.79 price screens above the $3.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. (ESBA) currently trades at $4.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.00, implying the stock looks roughly 37.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Empire State Realty OP, L.P. generated revenue of $777M at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.25 (bear case) to $3.75 (bull case); at $4.79, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -37%, ESBA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($3.99) versus Asset-Based ($2.63). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. operates as a subsidiary of Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. reported revenue of $768M in FY2025 versus $608M in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $47.6M in FY2025.
ESBA screens 37% overvalued. Compare with MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A →
Peer Group
REIT - Office · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €15.23 | €6.46 | -58% |
| BXP, Inc BXP | $69.11 | $53.27 | -23% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $51.75 | $41.59 | -20% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $50.12 | $59.48 | +19% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $15.38 | $4.60 | -70% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.28 SGD | 1.14 SGD | -11% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $32.15 | $17.62 | -45% |
| Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC | $39.42 | $40.37 | +2% |
| Keppel DC REIT AJBU | 2.20 SGD | 1.68 SGD | -24% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.64 | A$4.49 | -20% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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