Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of Vornado Realty Trust $48.95, price $33.23, upside +47.3%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.79 – $44.03 · fair‑value band $30.03 – $73.34 · the $33.23 price screens below the $48.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 10, 2026.
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Vornado Realty Trust is a fully integrated real estate investment trust with a 26 million square-foot portfolio of premier New York City office, retail and multifamily assets and the developer of the new PENN DISTRICT. While concentrated in New York, Vornado also owns premier assets in both Chicago and San Francisco.
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Vornado is a real estate industry leader in sustainability, with 100% of our in-service office buildings LEED certified and over 95% certified LEED Gold or Platinum. Vornado Realty Trust was incorporated in 1946 in Maryland, USA.
Stock analysis
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) currently trades at $33.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.95, implying the stock looks roughly 32.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $89.09 per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the $33.23 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $13.74, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $30.03 (bear) to $73.34 (bull), the price of $33.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Vornado Realty Trust reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $905M in FY2025, compounding +50.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.9B · P/E ratio 845.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.0400 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 50.0% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 47%, VNO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$30.03Fair Value $48.95Bull$73.34
Price $33.23 · Upside +47.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Per share before 2017divided by the spin-off factor 1.237
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.5% vs 2.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
0.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.3% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Vornado keeps adding notable tenants to its Penn District properties, bringing more leasing visibility to its core New York assets. Redevelopment efforts, however, run into higher funding costs that already show up in the pipeline and balance sheet. Will new occupancy gains outweigh the constraints on external growth and earnings timing, or will capital discipline prove the bigger driver?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 71 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+47.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.6% · Below median
Return on assets5.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
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Is Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.95 versus a price of $33.23, about +47% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VNO?
Our model-based fair value for Vornado Realty Trust is $48.95 (as of Oct 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.23.
What is the quality score of VNO?
Vornado Realty Trust has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.95 (as of Oct 10, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.03, optimistic scenario $73.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vornado Realty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.95, about +47% upside versus a price of $33.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $30.03, optimistic scenario $73.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
Vornado Realty Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 10, 2026).
Does Vornado Realty Trust pay a dividend?
Vornado Realty Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.23% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vornado Realty Trust would have to grow free cash flow by 0.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Oct 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VNO use?
Our models discount Vornado Realty Trust at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vornado Realty Trust that is 0.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vornado Realty Trust grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies 0.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vornado Realty Trust (0.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.22 %: that much free cash flow Vornado Realty Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vornado Realty Trust it is $48.95 per share (as of Oct 10, 2026), against a price of $33.23. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vornado Realty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 10, 2026, VNO trades below its calculated fair value: price $33.23, fair value $48.95, a gap of about +47% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VNO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.95). For Vornado Realty Trust the two are $15.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vornado Realty Trust worth?
The market values Vornado Realty Trust at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 10, 2026). Per share that is $33.23; our models calculate a fair value of $48.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VNO?
Our models span a range for Vornado Realty Trust: cautious scenario $30.03, base $48.95, optimistic $73.34 per share (as of Oct 10, 2026, price $33.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of VNO?
The PEG ratio of Vornado Realty Trust is 2.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vornado Realty Trust (as of Oct 10, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 1.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VNO from its 52-week high?
Vornado Realty Trust trades at $33.23, about 19% below its 52-week high of $40.91 and 34% above the low of $24.71 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vornado Realty Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vornado Realty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 10, 2026: price $33.23, calculated fair value $48.95 (+47%), Quality Score 57/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VNO calculated?
We run Vornado Realty Trust through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Vornado Realty Trust currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was $33.23. Our model-based fair value is $48.95, about +47% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vornado Realty Trust right now?
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($30.03 to $73.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) come from?
Earnings per share at Vornado Realty Trust grew −9.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.0 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vornado Realty Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
The market capitalisation of Vornado Realty Trust is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Vornado Realty Trust is 845.3 (as of Oct 10, 2026 ex one-offs 7.9 (fiscal year 2025), median at FY-end 36.8 (7 FY)). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
Earnings per share at Vornado Realty Trust are $0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 845.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
The dividend yield of Vornado Realty Trust is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
The net margin of Vornado Realty Trust is 50.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vornado Realty Trust is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vornado Realty Trust is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
The operating margin of Vornado Realty Trust is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
Revenue at Vornado Realty Trust is growing +5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)?
Earnings per share at Vornado Realty Trust are growing −97.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) carry?
The net debt of Vornado Realty Trust is $7.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 10, 2026