Esenboga Elektrik Üretim A.S. (ESEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · TR · Market cap 6.1B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −4.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 88% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.03 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (0.3900 TRY to 1.03 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.9396 TRY – 20.30 TRY · fair‑value band 0.3900 TRY – 1.03 TRY · the 3.37 TRY price screens above the 0.3900 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Esenboga Elektrik Üretim A.S. (ESEN) currently trades at 3.37 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.3900 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 88.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Esenboga Elektrik Üretim A.S. generated revenue of 1.4B TRY at a net margin of -16.7%. Revenue declined 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. Net debt stands at 4.0B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.3900 TRY (bear case) to 1.03 TRY (bull case); at 3.37 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -88%, ESEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (0.7753 TRY) versus Growth DCF (0.2779 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Esenboga Elektrik Üretim A.S. engages in the establishment, commissioning, production, and sale of electricity in Turkey. The company owns solar power plants; and is involved in solar power plant contracting business.
Full company description
Esenboga Elektrik Üretim A.S. engages in the establishment, commissioning, production, and sale of electricity in Turkey. The company owns solar power plants; and is involved in solar power plant contracting business. It also provides operation and maintenance solutions; and project development and turnkey engineering, procurement and installation for solar energy projects. Esenboga Elektrik Üretim A.S. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Ankara, Turkey. Esenboga Elektrik Üretim A.S. is a subsidiary of Naturel Yenilenebilir Enerji Ticaret A.S.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Esenboga Elektrik Üretim A.S. reported revenue of 1.5B TRY in FY2025 versus 555M TRY in FY2021, a compound +28.0%/yr. Reported net income was −1.2B TRY in FY2025.
ESEN screens 88% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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