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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (ESLA) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · AT · Market cap €26.0B

TE The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. ESLA · VI
Price€88.76
Fair Value€18.84
Upside-78.8%
Quality49/100
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Risks

!Trades 371% ABOVE our fair value of €18.84
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.7% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.0 %/yr)
Loss-making · -1.7% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
1.94% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 31/100
Evidence: Medium Range €8.70 – €33.59 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 24, 2026, revised from €22.00 to €18.84 (−14.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +25.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and trading another 371% above our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€33.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (€8.70 to €33.59). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€304.68 €44.32 Fair Value €18.84 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €44.32 – €304.68 · fair‑value band €8.70 – €33.59 · the €88.76 price screens above the €18.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

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Analysis

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (ESLA) currently trades at €88.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €18.84, implying the stock looks roughly 78.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. generated revenue of €14.8B at a net margin of -1.7%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.0%. Net debt stands at €4.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €8.70 (bear case) to €33.59 (bull case); at €88.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -79%, ESLA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €9.79 €19.82 €36.99 80
Rev-Margin DCF €16.04 €34.67 €57.25 74
ROIC Compounder €16.95 €23.64 €31.04 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €8.56 €18.90 €38.05 38
5Y Revenue Exit €16.04 €34.05 €60.27 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €33.24 €63.82 €104.32 41
10Y Revenue Exit €11.79 €24.96 €39.31 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €23.33 €43.37 €65.18 37
Earnings-Based
EPV €16.95 €22.74 €27.80 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT €41.06 €60.67 €80.28 53
EV/EBITDA €59.91 €85.80 €111.69 54
EV/Revenue €24.22 €42.22 €60.21 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €7.81 €10.47 €15.63 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €9.79 €19.82 €36.99 80
Rev-Margin DCF €16.04 €34.67 €57.25 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder €16.95 €23.64 €31.04 72

Widest divergence: Multiples (€60.67) versus Asset-Based (€10.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 1.75 TTM
Dividend yield 1.9%
Net margin -1.7% TTM
Return on equity -6.0% TTM
Return on assets 4.9% TTM
Operating margin 14.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
EPS (TTM) €-0.6200
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €14.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.6% 3y avg -6.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -45.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €670M FY2025
Net debt €4.4B FY2025 · ≈ 6.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 62
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide.

Full company description

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising parfum, eau de parfum, eau de toilette, eau de cologne, and body spray, as well as lotions, creams, powders, candles and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair colour products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. The company offers its products under the La Mer, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, AERIN Beauty, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, KILIAN PARIS, BALMAIN Beauty, Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, The Ordinary, Aveda, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, Bumble and bumble, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, Smashbox, Darphin Paris, Lab Series, NIOD, Aramis, and GLAMGLOW brands. It sells its products through department stores, duty-free retailers, specialty multi retailers, online pure players, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and top-tier salons and spas, as well as direct-to-consumer businesses across freestanding stores, and brand websites and third-party online platforms. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. reported revenue of €14.3B in FY2025 versus €16.2B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€1.1B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 23/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€14.3B
Latest YoY
−8.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.0%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −3.0%/yr
FY21 €16.2B
FY22 €17.7B
FY23 €15.9B
FY24 €15.6B
FY25 €14.3B
Net income
FY21 €2.9B
FY22 €2.4B
FY23 €1.0B
FY24 €390M
FY25 −€1.1B

ESLA screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Unilever PLC →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESLA

Peer Group

Household & Personal Products · 251 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.6% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.89× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 7.85× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.05× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 45.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 14.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.40× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 25
FUTURE23 · sector 4
PAST0 · sector 27
HEALTH5 · sector 98
DIVIDEND32 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Household & Personal Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Unilever PLC UNA €54.17 €40.47 -25%
Colgate-Palmolive Company CL $92.32 $55.28 -40%
500696 500696 ₹2,093 ₹641.55 -69%
Hindustan Unilever Limited HINDUNILVR ₹2,015 ₹789.46 -61%
Kenvue Inc KVUE $18.98 $10.97 -42%
Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB $108.93 $79.71 -27%
Henkel AG HEN3 €77.52 €85.95 +11%
Church & Dwight Co CHD $102.53 $65.12 -36%
Beiersdorf Aktiengesellschaft, BEI €78.84 €68.36 -13%
Essity AB ESSITYA kr 273.00 kr 250.02 -8%

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Frequently asked questions

Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (ESLA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €18.84 versus a price of €88.76, about −79% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESLA?
Our model-based fair value for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is €18.84 (as of Aug 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €88.76.
What is the quality score of ESLA?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (ESLA)?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €14.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ESLA?
The net profit margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is about -1.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. pay a dividend?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.78% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 24, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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