Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Essity AB (publ) SEK 266, price SEK 258, upside +3.2%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 190.02 – kr 302.88 · fair‑value band kr 169.33 – kr 384.36 · the kr 257.50 price screens below the kr 265.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Essity AB (publ) develops, produces, and sells hygiene and health products and services in Europe, North and Latin America, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Health & Medical, Consumer Goods, and Professional Hygiene.
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Essity AB (publ) develops, produces, and sells hygiene and health products and services in Europe, North and Latin America, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Health & Medical, Consumer Goods, and Professional Hygiene. The Health & Medical segment offers incontinence products, wound care, compression therapy, orthopedics, skincare products, and digital solutions with sensor technology under the TENA, Leukoplast, JOBST, Actimove, Cutimed, Delta-Cast, AquaCast Liner, and Hydrofera brands to family carers, professional caregivers, and patients and consumers through pharmacies, medical device stores, hospitals, distributors, care institutions, and e-commerce. The Consumer Goods segment provides pads, panty liners, tampons, diapers, wet wipes, shampoos, lotions, baby oil, skin creams, intimate soaps, intimate wipes, leakproof apparel, menstrual cups, toilet papers, household towels, handkerchiefs, facial tissues, and napkins under the TENA, Knix, Modibodi, Libero, Lotus, Libresse, Bodyform, Nana, Saba, Nosotras, TOM Organic, Tempo, Zewa, Cushelle, Plenty, Regio, and Familia brands through retail trade and e-commerce. The Professional Hygiene segment offers toilet papers, paper hand towels, napkins, hand soaps, hand lotions, hand sanitizers, dispensers, and cleaning and wiping products, as well as vision cleaning and data-driven cleaning solutions under the Tork brand to companies and office buildings, universities, healthcare facilities, airports, industries, restaurants, hotels, stadiums, and other public venues through direct to the end-customer, e-commerce, or distributors. Essity AB (publ) was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A) currently trades at kr 257.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 265.67, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 316.36 per share, and 10 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 257.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 84.35, and 12 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 169.33 (bear) to kr 384.36 (bull), the price of kr 257.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Essity AB (publ) reported revenue of 138B SEK in FY2025 versus 122B SEK in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 12.7B SEK in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 189B SEK (≈ $18.8B) · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) kr 18.16 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at 3%, ESSITY-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 169.33Fair Value kr 265.67Bull kr 384.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 7.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.0% vs 9.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (16 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 240 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.0% · Above median
Return on assets6.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Essity AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESSITY-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 265.67 versus a price of kr 257.50, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ESSITY-A?
Our model-based fair value for Essity AB (publ) is kr 265.67 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 257.50.
What is the quality score of ESSITY-A?
Essity AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 265.67 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 169.33, optimistic scenario kr 384.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Essity AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 265.67, about +3% upside versus a price of kr 257.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 169.33, optimistic scenario kr 384.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
Essity AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 138B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Essity AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Essity AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Essity AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +7.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESSITY-A use?
Our models discount Essity AB (publ) at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Essity AB (publ) that is +7.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Essity AB (publ) grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies +7.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Essity AB (publ) (+7.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.78 %: that much free cash flow Essity AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Essity AB (publ) it is kr 265.67 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of kr 257.50. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Essity AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, ESSITY-A trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 257.50, fair value kr 265.67, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESSITY-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 257.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 265.67). For Essity AB (publ) the two are kr 8.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Essity AB (publ) worth?
The market values Essity AB (publ) at about 189B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is kr 257.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 265.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESSITY-A?
Our models span a range for Essity AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 169.33, base kr 265.67, optimistic kr 384.36 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price kr 257.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESSITY-A?
Essity AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 265.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.6, P/B 2.2, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ESSITY-A?
The PEG ratio of Essity AB (publ) is 3.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Essity AB (publ) (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 14.0%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESSITY-A from its 52-week high?
Essity AB (publ) trades at kr 257.50, about 9% below its 52-week high of kr 282.50 and 8% above the low of kr 237.44 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 265.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Essity AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Essity AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price kr 257.50, calculated fair value kr 265.67 (+3%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESSITY-A calculated?
We run Essity AB (publ) through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 265.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Essity AB (publ) currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 257.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 265.67, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Essity AB (publ) right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 169.33 to kr 384.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A) come from?
Earnings per share at Essity AB (publ) grew +12.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Essity AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
The market capitalisation of Essity AB (publ) is 189B SEK (≈ $18.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Essity AB (publ) is 1.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
Earnings per share at Essity AB (publ) are kr 18.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
The dividend yield of Essity AB (publ) is 3.4% (payout 48.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
The net margin of Essity AB (publ) is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Essity AB (publ) is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Essity AB (publ) is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
The operating margin of Essity AB (publ) is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
Revenue at Essity AB (publ) is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A)?
Earnings per share at Essity AB (publ) are growing −10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A) carry?
The net debt of Essity AB (publ) is 30.1B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 30, 2026