XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of XL Axiata Tbk PT IDR 5,745, price IDR 2,380, upside +141.4%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,507 IDR – 4,490 IDR · fair‑value band 3,490 IDR – 8,485 IDR · the 2,380 IDR price screens below the 5,745 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication, telecommunications network, and multimedia services for consumers and businesses in Indonesia. It operates through the GSM Mobile and Telecommunications Network Services, and Managed and Information Technology Services.
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PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication, telecommunications network, and multimedia services for consumers and businesses in Indonesia. It operates through the GSM Mobile and Telecommunications Network Services, and Managed and Information Technology Services. The company provides cellular mobile and closed fixed network, Internet, Internet telephony and interconnection, data communication system, packet switched local fixed network, telephony, and voice over Internet protocol services. It also offers digital content and home broadband services; voice and short message services; data and digital services; mobile communication services; call center services; and other telecommunication services, such as subscriber identity module (SIM) cards, and leased lines and towers. PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk was formerly known as PT XL Axiata Tbk and changed its name to PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk in April 2025. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL) currently trades at 2,380 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5,745 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 58.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 7,109 IDR per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the 2,380 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,098 IDR, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3,490 IDR (bear) to 8,485 IDR (bull), the price of 2,380 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
XL Axiata Tbk PT reported revenue of 42.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 26.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was −4.4T IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 43.3T IDR (≈ $2.4B) · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) −248.95 IDR · Dividend yield 9.3% · Net margin −10.4% · Return on equity −13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% · Operating margin 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 141%, EXCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3,490 IDRFair Value 5,745 IDRBull 8,485 IDR
Price 2,380 IDR · Upside +141.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.7% (2020) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.4% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+141.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−8.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5,745 IDR versus a price of 2,380 IDR, about +141% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXCL?
Our model-based fair value for XL Axiata Tbk PT is 5,745 IDR (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,380 IDR.
What is the quality score of EXCL?
XL Axiata Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5,745 IDR (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3,490 IDR, optimistic scenario 8,485 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XL Axiata Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5,745 IDR, about +141% upside versus a price of 2,380 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 3,490 IDR, optimistic scenario 8,485 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
XL Axiata Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 47.3T IDR (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does XL Axiata Tbk PT pay a dividend?
XL Axiata Tbk PT currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.27% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, XL Axiata Tbk PT would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXCL use?
Our models discount XL Axiata Tbk PT at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For XL Axiata Tbk PT that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at XL Axiata Tbk PT grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into XL Axiata Tbk PT (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.93 %: that much free cash flow XL Axiata Tbk PT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XL Axiata Tbk PT it is 5,745 IDR per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 2,380 IDR. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XL Axiata Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, EXCL trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,380 IDR, fair value 5,745 IDR, a gap of about +141% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXCL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,380 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5,745 IDR). For XL Axiata Tbk PT the two are 3,365 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XL Axiata Tbk PT worth?
The market values XL Axiata Tbk PT at about 43.3T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 2,380 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 5,745 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXCL?
Our models span a range for XL Axiata Tbk PT: cautious scenario 3,490 IDR, base 5,745 IDR, optimistic 8,485 IDR per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 2,380 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of EXCL?
The PEG ratio of XL Axiata Tbk PT is 0.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
Balance-sheet figures for XL Axiata Tbk PT (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −13.4%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXCL from its 52-week high?
XL Axiata Tbk PT trades at 2,380 IDR, about 47% below its 52-week high of 4,490 IDR and 4% above the low of 2,285 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5,745 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XL Axiata Tbk PT?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XL Axiata Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 2,380 IDR, calculated fair value 5,745 IDR (+141%), Quality Score 23/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXCL calculated?
We run XL Axiata Tbk PT through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5,745 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. XL Axiata Tbk PT currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 2,380 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 5,745 IDR, about +141% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XL Axiata Tbk PT right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (23/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (3,490 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (3,490 IDR to 8,485 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of XL Axiata Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
The market capitalisation of XL Axiata Tbk PT is 43.3T IDR (≈ $2.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XL Axiata Tbk PT is 0.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
Earnings per share at XL Axiata Tbk PT are −248.95 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
The dividend yield of XL Axiata Tbk PT is 9.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
The net margin of XL Axiata Tbk PT is −10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XL Axiata Tbk PT is −13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XL Axiata Tbk PT is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
The operating margin of XL Axiata Tbk PT is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
Revenue at XL Axiata Tbk PT is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL)?
Earnings per share at XL Axiata Tbk PT are growing −28.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does XL Axiata Tbk PT (EXCL) carry?
The net debt of XL Axiata Tbk PT is 90.4T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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