PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, (EXCL) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · ID · Market cap 47.0T IDR

Below-average quality, screening 105% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (22/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case (3,254 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• A fairly wide model range (3,254 IDR to 8,237 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,507 IDR – 4,490 IDR · fair‑value band 3,254 IDR – 8,237 IDR · the 2,800 IDR price screens below the 5,745 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, (EXCL) currently trades at 2,800 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5,745 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 105.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, generated revenue of 45.7T IDR at a net margin of -12.1%. Revenue grew 37.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.1%. Net debt stands at 90.4T IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 3,254 IDR (bear case) to 8,237 IDR (bull case); at 2,800 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at 105%, EXCL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (5,620 IDR) versus Asset-Based (1,098 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication, telecommunications network, and multimedia services for consumers and businesses in Indonesia. It operates through the GSM Mobile and Telecommunications Network Services, and Managed and Information Technology Services.

Full company description

PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication, telecommunications network, and multimedia services for consumers and businesses in Indonesia. It operates through the GSM Mobile and Telecommunications Network Services, and Managed and Information Technology Services. The company provides cellular mobile and closed fixed network, Internet, Internet telephony and interconnection, data communication system, packet switched local fixed network, telephony, and voice over Internet protocol services. It also offers digital content and home broadband services; voice and short message services; data and digital services; mobile communication services; call center services; and other telecommunication services, such as subscriber identity module (SIM) cards, and leased lines and towers. PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk was formerly known as PT XL Axiata Tbk and changed its name to PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk in April 2025. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, reported revenue of 42.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 26.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was −4.4T IDR in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Telecom Services · 253 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.