Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Fletcher Building Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.26 – A$6.38 · fair‑value band A$1.60 – A$3.78 · the A$3.01 price screens above the A$2.79 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Fletcher Building Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes building products in New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Building Products, Distribution, Concrete, Australia, Residential and Development, and Construction segments.
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Fletcher Building Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes building products in New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Building Products, Distribution, Concrete, Australia, Residential and Development, and Construction segments. The company manufactures, distributes, and markets light building products, including insulations, plasterboards, steel products, laminate surfaces, plastic and concrete piping, sinks, and drywall systems used in the residential, industrial, and commercial markets; and distributes building and plumbing products, as well as bathroom products, such as piping, valves, baths, and vanities under the PlaceMakers and Mico brands. It also engages in the extraction and production of aggregates; manufacture of cement, ready-mix concrete, and concrete products, as well as purlin and flooring products; bulk transportation solutions; supply and hire of road systems and safety products, including road safety barriers, lighting and utility columns, poles, and corrugated metal structures; and supply of roofing, cladding, architectural tray, solar roofing products, wires, and steel products. In addition, the company builds and sells residential homes and apartment buildings; develops and sells commercial and residential land; manages retirement village assets; and sells land properties. Further, it provides civil construction; ground engineering; and treatment, storage, and distribution of infrastructure projects, as well as rehabilitation of existing pipelines; piling solutions; construction and maintenance services for roads; residential developments, airports, ports, and windfarms; and supply of asphalt and bitumen products under the Fletcher Construction, Higgins, and Brian Perry Civil brands. Fletcher Building Limited was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU) currently trades at A$3.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.79, implying the stock looks roughly 7.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$2.26 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the A$3.01 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at A$1.70, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$1.60 (bear) to A$3.78 (bull), the price of A$3.01 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Fletcher Building Ltd reported revenue of 7.0B NZD in FY2025 versus 8.1B NZD in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was −419M NZD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$3.4B (≈ $2.4B) · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1900 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −6.0% · Return on equity −6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −7%, FBU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.60Fair Value A$2.79Bull A$3.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.1% (2020) → 0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fletcher Building Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FBU
Frequently asked questions
Is Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.79 versus a price of A$3.01, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FBU?
Our model-based fair value for Fletcher Building Ltd is A$2.79 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.01.
What is the quality score of FBU?
Fletcher Building Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.79 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.60, optimistic scenario A$3.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fletcher Building Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.79, about −7% upside versus a price of A$3.01 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$1.60, optimistic scenario A$3.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
Fletcher Building Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$7.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Fletcher Building Ltd pay a dividend?
Fletcher Building Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fletcher Building Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FBU use?
Our models discount Fletcher Building Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fletcher Building Ltd that is +5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fletcher Building Ltd grew -0.9 % a year. The price currently implies +5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fletcher Building Ltd (+5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.25 %: that much free cash flow Fletcher Building Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fletcher Building Ltd it is A$2.79 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$3.01. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fletcher Building Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, FBU trades above its calculated fair value: price A$3.01, fair value A$2.79, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FBU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.79). For Fletcher Building Ltd the two are A$0.2210 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fletcher Building Ltd worth?
The market values Fletcher Building Ltd at about A$3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$3.01; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FBU?
Our models span a range for Fletcher Building Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.60, base A$2.79, optimistic A$3.78 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$3.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of FBU?
The PEG ratio of Fletcher Building Ltd is 5.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fletcher Building Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −6.0%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FBU from its 52-week high?
Fletcher Building Ltd trades at A$3.01, about 13% below its 52-week high of A$3.44 and 36% above the low of A$2.22 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fletcher Building Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Vulcan Materials Company, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fletcher Building Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$3.01, calculated fair value A$2.79 (−7%), Quality Score 32/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FBU calculated?
We run Fletcher Building Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Fletcher Building Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Fletcher Building Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$1.60 to A$3.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Fletcher Building Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
The market capitalisation of Fletcher Building Ltd is A$3.4B (≈ $2.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fletcher Building Ltd is 0.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
Earnings per share at Fletcher Building Ltd are A$−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
The dividend yield of Fletcher Building Ltd is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
The net margin of Fletcher Building Ltd is −6.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fletcher Building Ltd is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fletcher Building Ltd is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
The operating margin of Fletcher Building Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
Revenue at Fletcher Building Ltd is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU)?
Earnings per share at Fletcher Building Ltd are growing −42.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fletcher Building Ltd (FBU) carry?
The net debt of Fletcher Building Ltd is A$2.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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