FG Merger II Corp (FGMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $106M
FG Merger II Corp
FGMC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −53.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (18 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range $3.94 – $14.89 · fair‑value band $1.35 – $2.25 · the $4.57 price screens above the $1.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
FG Merger II Corp (FGMC) currently trades at $4.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.80, implying the stock looks roughly 60.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 85.8. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.35 (bear case) to $2.25 (bull case); at $4.57, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -61%, FGMC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($5.37) versus Earnings-Based ($1.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 5
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
FG Merger II Corp. does not have significant operations. It focuses on businesses in the financial services industry. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Itasca, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
FG Merger II Corp reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $8.2M in FY2023. Reported net income was $1.4M in FY2025.
FGMC screens 61% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →
Peer Group
Shell Companies · 70 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Shell Companies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Shell Companies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company COLA | C$27.96 | C$10.91 | -61% |
| Lionheart III Corp LION | $13.47 | $18.15 | +35% |
| Agriculture & Natural Solutions Acquisition Corporation ANSC | $11.45 | $4.13 | -64% |
| AA Mission Acquisition Corp AAM | $0.0320 | $0.0314 | -2% |
| GP-Act III Acquisition Corp GPAT | $10.91 | $4.30 | -61% |
| Berto Acquisition Corp TACO | $10.48 | $2.73 | -74% |
| Axiom Intelligence Acquisition Corp AXIN | $10.29 | $1.46 | -86% |
| Bold Eagle Acquisition Corp BEAG | $10.67 | $4.00 | -63% |
| Lionheart Holdings CUB | $10.80 | $5.06 | -53% |
| Graf Global Corp GRAF | $10.82 | $3.63 | -66% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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