FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of FG Merger II Corp. $1.61, price $4.21, upside -61.8%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
19‑month range $3.89 – $14.89 · fair‑value band $1.14 – $2.18 · the $4.21 price screens above the $1.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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FG Merger II Corp. does not have significant operations. It focuses on businesses in the financial services industry. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Itasca, Illinois.
Stock analysis
FG Merger II Corp. Common stock (FGMC) currently trades at $4.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.61, implying the stock looks roughly 161.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $5.37 per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the $4.21 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.15, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.14 (bear) to $2.18 (bull), the price of $4.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
FG Merger II Corp. Common stock reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $8.2M in FY2023. Reported net income was $1.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $106M · P/E ratio 85.8 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3,797% · EPS growth (YoY) −32.5% · Free cash flow $1.5M · Net cash $487K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −62%, FGMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.14Fair Value $1.61Bull $2.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0881 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Shell Companies · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−62% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Return on assets−1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Shell Companies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)85.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.29× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF71.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)41· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 0
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FG Merger II Corp. Common stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FGMC
Frequently asked questions
Is FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.61 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $4.21, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FGMC?
Our model-based fair value for FG Merger II Corp. Common stock is $1.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $4.21.
What is the quality score of FGMC?
FG Merger II Corp. Common stock has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.14, optimistic scenario $2.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FG Merger II Corp. Common stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.61, about −62% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $4.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.14, optimistic scenario $2.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FG Merger II Corp. Common stock would have to grow free cash flow by +19.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FGMC use?
Our models discount FG Merger II Corp. Common stock at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FG Merger II Corp. Common stock that is +19.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FG Merger II Corp. Common stock (+19.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.37 %: that much free cash flow FG Merger II Corp. Common stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FG Merger II Corp. Common stock it is $1.61 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.21. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FG Merger II Corp. Common stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FGMC trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.21, fair value $1.61, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FGMC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.61). For FG Merger II Corp. Common stock the two are $2.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FG Merger II Corp. Common stock worth?
The market values FG Merger II Corp. Common stock at about $106M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.21; our models calculate a fair value of $1.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FGMC?
Our models span a range for FG Merger II Corp. Common stock: cautious scenario $1.14, base $1.61, optimistic $2.18 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FGMC?
FG Merger II Corp. Common stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 85.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
Balance-sheet figures for FG Merger II Corp. Common stock (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FGMC from its 52-week high?
FG Merger II Corp. Common stock trades at $4.21, about 72% below its 52-week high of $14.89 and 8% above the low of $3.89 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FG Merger II Corp. Common stock?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Lionheart III Corp, AA Mission Acquisition Corp, Berto Acquisition Corp, Metals Acquisition Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FG Merger II Corp. Common stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.21, calculated fair value $1.61 (−62%), Quality Score 62/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FGMC calculated?
We run FG Merger II Corp. Common stock through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. FG Merger II Corp. Common stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $4.21. Our model-based fair value is $1.61, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FG Merger II Corp. Common stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.14 to $2.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of FG Merger II Corp. Common stock
How large is the market capitalisation of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
The market capitalisation of FG Merger II Corp. Common stock is $106M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
Earnings per share at FG Merger II Corp. Common stock are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 85.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FG Merger II Corp. Common stock is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FG Merger II Corp. Common stock is −3,797% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast are earnings growing at FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC)?
Earnings per share at FG Merger II Corp. Common stock are growing −32.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does FG Merger II Corp. (FGMC) hold?
FG Merger II Corp. Common stock holds more cash than debt, $487K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026