Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Alfa Energi Investama Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, trading, and transportation of coal in Indonesia. It conducts stockpile management and crushing of coal. The company also owns a coal mine with 2,089 hectares located in Kutai Kartanegara, East Kalimantan.
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PT Alfa Energi Investama Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, trading, and transportation of coal in Indonesia. It conducts stockpile management and crushing of coal. The company also owns a coal mine with 2,089 hectares located in Kutai Kartanegara, East Kalimantan. In addition, the company engages in investment business; and operation of power plant, as well as provides management consulting services. PT Alfa Energi Investama Tbk was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE) currently trades at 122.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 38.85 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 214.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 122.90 IDR per share, and 1 of the 9 models we run sit above the 122.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 97.64 IDR, and 8 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 31.85 IDR (bear) to 48.21 IDR (bull), the price of 122.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT reported revenue of 312B IDR in FY2025 versus 841B IDR in FY2021, a compound −22.0%/yr. Reported net income was 58.5M IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 180B IDR (≈ $18.0M) · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) −2.67 IDR · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 3.4% · Revenue (TTM) 261B IDR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −68%, FIRE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.4400 IDR to 122.90 IDR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 31.85 IDRFair Value 38.85 IDRBull 48.21 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−34.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.9%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−65.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−65.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−66% vs −38%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → −1%
Compare Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−51% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FIRE.JK
Frequently asked questions
Is Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 38.85 IDR versus a price of 122.00 IDR, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FIRE?
Our model-based fair value for Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is 38.85 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 122.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of FIRE?
Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 38.85 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario 31.85 IDR, optimistic scenario 48.21 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 38.85 IDR, about −68% upside versus a price of 122.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 31.85 IDR, optimistic scenario 48.21 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 261B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT it is 38.85 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 122.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, FIRE trades above its calculated fair value: price 122.00 IDR, fair value 38.85 IDR, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FIRE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (122.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (38.85 IDR). For Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT the two are 83.15 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT worth?
The market values Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT at about 180B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 122.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 38.85 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FIRE?
Our models span a range for Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT: cautious scenario 31.85 IDR, base 38.85 IDR, optimistic 48.21 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 122.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −1.6%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FIRE from its 52-week high?
Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT trades at 122.00 IDR, about 58% below its 52-week high of 288.00 IDR and 74% above the low of 70.00 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 38.85 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 122.00 IDR, calculated fair value 38.85 IDR (−68%), Quality Score 46/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FIRE calculated?
We run Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 38.85 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (48.21 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
The market capitalisation of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is 180B IDR (≈ $18.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is 0.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT are −2.67 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
The net margin of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is −1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
The operating margin of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
Revenue at Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is growing −51.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT are growing −89.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE) generate?
The free cash flow of Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT is −2.6B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT (FIRE) hold?
Alfa Energi Investama Tbk PT holds more cash than debt, 6.5B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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