Fold Holdings (FLD) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $28.9M

Below-average quality, screening 44% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (25/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.5270). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($0.5270 to $1.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

54‑month range $0.3800 – $11.38 · fair‑value band $0.5270 – $1.05 · the $0.4899 price screens below the $0.7055 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Fold Holdings (FLD) currently trades at $0.4899, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7055, implying the stock looks roughly 44.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $30.3M. Revenue declined 21.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -92.2%. Net debt stands at $71.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.5270 (bear case) to $1.05 (bull case); at $0.4899, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 44%, FLD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Fold Holdings, Inc., a bitcoin financial services company, provides access to bitcoin through a suite of consumer financial products in the United States. Its financial services platform allows consumers to accumulate, save, and use bitcoin to accomplish financial goals.

Full company description

Fold Holdings, Inc., a bitcoin financial services company, provides access to bitcoin through a suite of consumer financial products in the United States. Its financial services platform allows consumers to accumulate, save, and use bitcoin to accomplish financial goals. The company offers consumers an FDIC insured checking account, a Visa prepaid debit card, bill payments services, and an extensive catalog of merchant reward offers, as well as partners with third-party service providers that offer bitcoin exchange and custody services. It also invests in and accumulates bitcoin for treasury. The company offers its products and services through the Fold mobile application. Fold Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Fold Holdings reported revenue of $31.8M in FY2025 versus $28.9M in FY2022, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$69.6M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Capital Markets · 423 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.