Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Focus Minerals Ltd A$4.81, price A$1.86, upside +158.6%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1150 – A$4.43 · fair‑value band A$3.20 – A$5.90 · the A$1.86 price screens below the A$4.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Focus Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of gold properties in Western Australia. The company owns 100% interest in the Coolgardie Gold Project located in the East of Perth, Western Australia. It also operates Three Mile Hill Processing plant; and open pit and underground deposits.
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Focus Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of gold properties in Western Australia. The company owns 100% interest in the Coolgardie Gold Project located in the East of Perth, Western Australia. It also operates Three Mile Hill Processing plant; and open pit and underground deposits. The company was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia. Focus Minerals Limited operates as a subsidiary of Shandong Gold International Mining Corporation Limited.
Stock analysis
Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) currently trades at A$1.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.81, implying the stock looks roughly 61.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$40.94 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$1.86 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.8600, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$3.20 (bear) to A$5.90 (bull), the price of A$1.86 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Focus Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$301M in FY2025 versus A$97.0K in FY2021, a compound +646.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$272M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$628M (≈ $441M) · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 7.01 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2400 · Net margin 90.4% · Return on equity 29.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 39.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 159%, FML screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$3.20Fair Value A$4.81Bull A$5.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1788 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+161.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+163.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+270.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +52.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,176.7% (2020) → 29.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+158.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)90.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)39.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth202.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.81 versus a price of A$1.86, about +159% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FML?
Our model-based fair value for Focus Minerals Ltd is A$4.81 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.86.
What is the quality score of FML?
Focus Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.81 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.20, optimistic scenario A$5.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Focus Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.81, about +159% upside versus a price of A$1.86 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$3.20, optimistic scenario A$5.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Focus Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$301M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Focus Minerals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +270.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FML use?
Our models discount Focus Minerals Ltd at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.63, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Focus Minerals Ltd that is +0.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Focus Minerals Ltd grew +270.3 % a year. The price currently implies +0.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Focus Minerals Ltd (+0.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.54 %: that much free cash flow Focus Minerals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Focus Minerals Ltd it is A$4.81 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$1.86. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Focus Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, FML trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.86, fair value A$4.81, a gap of about +159% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.81). For Focus Minerals Ltd the two are A$2.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Focus Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Focus Minerals Ltd at about A$628M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$1.86; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FML?
Our models span a range for Focus Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.20, base A$4.81, optimistic A$5.90 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$1.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FML?
Focus Minerals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 1.7, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
What is the PEG ratio of FML?
The PEG ratio of Focus Minerals Ltd is 1.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Balance-sheet figures for Focus Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 29.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FML from its 52-week high?
Focus Minerals Ltd trades at A$1.86, about 58% below its 52-week high of A$4.43 and 77% above the low of A$1.05 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Focus Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Focus Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$1.86, calculated fair value A$4.81 (+159%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FML calculated?
We run Focus Minerals Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$4.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Focus Minerals Ltd currently trades 159 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$1.86. Our model-based fair value is A$4.81, about +159% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Focus Minerals Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (73/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$3.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (A$3.20 to A$5.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Focus Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The market capitalisation of Focus Minerals Ltd is A$628M (≈ $441M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Focus Minerals Ltd is 7.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Earnings per share at Focus Minerals Ltd are A$0.2400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The net margin of Focus Minerals Ltd is 90.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Focus Minerals Ltd is 29.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Focus Minerals Ltd is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The operating margin of Focus Minerals Ltd is 39.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Revenue at Focus Minerals Ltd is growing +202% versus a year earlier (3y avg +163%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Earnings per share at Focus Minerals Ltd are growing +787% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) hold?
Focus Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$125M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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