Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Focus Minerals Ltd stock A$1.68, price A$1.76, that is 4.1% below the price, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1108 – A$4.27 · fair‑value band A$1.12 – A$2.07 · the A$1.76 price screens above the A$1.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
Follow Focus Minerals in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Focus Minerals is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Focus Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of gold properties in Western Australia. The company owns 100% interest in the Coolgardie Gold Project located in the East of Perth, Western Australia.
Show moreShow less
It also operates Three Mile Hill Processing plant; and open pit and underground deposits. The company was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia. Focus Minerals Limited operates as a subsidiary of Shandong Gold International Mining Corporation Limited.
Stock analysis
Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) currently trades at A$1.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.68, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.3%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$6.27 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$1.76 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.4200, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.12 (bear) to A$2.07 (bull), the price of A$1.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Focus Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$301M in FY2025 versus A$97.0K in FY2021, a compound +646.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$272M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$503M (≈ $342M) Small · P/E ratio 3.6 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) A$0.4900 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 28.5% · Return on equity 36.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 90 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −4%, FML screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.12Fair Value A$1.68BullA$2.07
Price A$1.76 · Downside -4.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.3561 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$2.65A$3.51A$6.0176
Growth DCFA$2.51A$3.74A$5.6575
EPVA$2.27A$2.49A$2.6674
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$2.65A$3.51A$6.0176
Owner EarningsA$9.50A$18.05A$32.8071
5Y Revenue ExitA$2.00A$2.91A$4.7869
5Y EBITDA ExitA$3.54A$6.01A$10.8570
5Y P/E ExitA$8.97A$21.34A$38.4865
10Y Revenue ExitA$2.20A$3.73A$4.5565
10Y EBITDA ExitA$3.19A$6.52A$12.3262
10Y P/E ExitA$6.53A$16.34A$33.0357
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$6.47A$45.09A$63.2761
Lynch FVA$23.29A$33.28A$43.2659
PEG = 1.0A$23.29A$33.28A$43.2655
EPVA$2.27A$2.49A$2.6674
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$12.12A$16.16A$20.2063
P/S MultipleA$1.18A$1.58A$1.9758
P/B MultipleA$0.6400A$0.8600A$1.0755
EV/EBITA$3.72A$4.81A$5.9066
EV/EBITDAA$4.03A$5.23A$6.4367
EV/RevenueA$1.54A$2.01A$2.4954
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.2800A$0.4200A$0.520055
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$2.51A$3.74A$5.6575
Rev-Margin DCFA$2.15A$3.26A$5.6068
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$3.70A$6.28A$16.0659
ROIC CompounderA$2.71A$3.60A$4.5370
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$28.66A$40.94A$53.2265
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+161.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+163.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+270.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +52.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.0%
’12
’13
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,176.7% (2020) → 29.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 280 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−4.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets61.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)28.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)44.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)229.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.68 versus a price of A$1.76, about 4% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FML?
Our model-based fair value for Focus Minerals Ltd is A$1.68 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.76.
What is the quality score of FML?
Focus Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.68 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.12, optimistic scenario A$2.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Focus Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.68, about 4% lower versus a price of A$1.76 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$1.12, optimistic scenario A$2.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Focus Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$480M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Focus Minerals Ltd pay a dividend?
Focus Minerals Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.56% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Focus Minerals Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.08 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. The payout ratio is 16.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.22 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Focus Minerals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +270.3 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FML use?
Our models discount Focus Minerals Ltd at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.66, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Focus Minerals Ltd that is -0.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Focus Minerals Ltd grew +270.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -0.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Focus Minerals Ltd (-0.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.11 %: that much free cash flow Focus Minerals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Focus Minerals Ltd it is A$1.68 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$1.76. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Focus Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, FML trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.76, fair value A$1.68, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.68). For Focus Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0715 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Focus Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Focus Minerals Ltd at about A$503M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$1.76; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FML?
Our models span a range for Focus Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.12, base A$1.68, optimistic A$2.07 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$1.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FML?
Focus Minerals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.6 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 1.4.
What is the PEG ratio of FML?
The PEG ratio of Focus Minerals Ltd is 1.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Balance-sheet figures for Focus Minerals Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 36.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FML from its 52-week high?
Focus Minerals Ltd trades at A$1.76, about 59% below its 52-week high of A$4.27 and 20% above the low of A$1.46 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Focus Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Focus Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$1.76, calculated fair value A$1.68 (−4%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FML calculated?
We run Focus Minerals Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.68 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Focus Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$1.76. Our model-based fair value is A$1.68, about 4% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Focus Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$1.12 to A$2.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Focus Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The market capitalisation of Focus Minerals Ltd is A$503M (≈ $342M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Focus Minerals Ltd is 1.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Earnings per share at Focus Minerals Ltd are A$0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The dividend yield of Focus Minerals Ltd is 4.6% (payout 16.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The net margin of Focus Minerals Ltd is 28.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Focus Minerals Ltd is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Focus Minerals Ltd is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
The operating margin of Focus Minerals Ltd is 44.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Revenue at Focus Minerals Ltd is growing +230% versus a year earlier (3y avg +163%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Focus Minerals Ltd (FML)?
Earnings per share at Focus Minerals Ltd are growing −61.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Focus Minerals Ltd (FML) hold?
Focus Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$125M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Why does Focus Minerals Ltd meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is lower?
Peak profit dampened: A$4.81 → A$1.68. The latest annual profit is far above the years before, and such peaks rarely last. So we calculate cautiously with A$1.68 instead of A$4.81. If the profit stays high, we ease the caution year by year. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: +174% against the price.
Free · no account needed
Watch Focus Minerals Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Focus Minerals Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 9, 2026