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Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Fletcher Building Limited $0.91, price $2.10, upside -56.7%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN NZFBUE0001S0

FB Fletcher Building Limited logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Fletcher Building Limited

FRCEF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.9100 · Strongly overvalued (−56.7%)
!Quality 33/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.59 $0.0004 Fair Value $0.9100 Jul 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0004 – $5.59 · fair‑value band $0.5500 – $1.31 · the $2.10 price screens above the $0.9100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Fletcher Building Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes building products in New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Building Products, Distribution, Concrete, Australia, Residential and Development, and Construction segments.

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Fletcher Building Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes building products in New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Building Products, Distribution, Concrete, Australia, Residential and Development, and Construction segments. The company manufactures, distributes, and markets light building products, including insulations, plasterboards, steel products, laminate surfaces, plastic and concrete piping, sinks, and drywall systems used in the residential, industrial, and commercial markets; and distributes building and plumbing products, as well as bathroom products, such as piping, valves, baths, and vanities under the PlaceMakers and Mico brands. It also engages in the extraction and production of aggregates; manufacture of cement, ready-mix concrete, and concrete products, as well as purlin and flooring products; bulk transportation solutions; supply and hire of road systems and safety products, including road safety barriers, lighting and utility columns, poles, and corrugated metal structures; and supply of roofing, cladding, architectural tray, solar roofing products, wires, and steel products. In addition, the company builds and sells residential homes and apartment buildings; develops and sells commercial and residential land; manages retirement village assets; and sells land properties. Further, it provides civil construction; ground engineering; and treatment, storage, and distribution of infrastructure projects, as well as rehabilitation of existing pipelines; piling solutions; construction and maintenance services for roads; residential developments, airports, ports, and windfarms; and supply of asphalt and bitumen products under the Fletcher Construction, Higgins, and Brian Perry Civil brands. Fletcher Building Limited was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.

Stock analysis

Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF) currently trades at $2.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9100, 56.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $1.26 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $2.10 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.1900, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.5500 (bear) to $1.31 (bull), the price of $2.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Fletcher Building Limited reported revenue of 7.0B NZD in FY2025 versus 8.1B NZD in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was −419M NZD in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.1B · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1400 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −6.0% · Return on equity −6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin 4.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −57%, FRCEF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5500 Fair Value $0.9100 Bull $1.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $0.8700 $1.25 $1.94 80
Growth DCF $0.9100 $1.27 $1.88 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.5200 $0.8600 $1.33 74
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.8700 $1.25 $1.94 80
5Y Revenue Exit $0.1100 $0.1500 $0.2300 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.5200 $0.8600 $1.33 74
10Y Revenue Exit $0.4300 $0.5100 $0.5800 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $0.6700 $0.9300 $1.21 69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.0200 $0.0200 $0.0300 69
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0200 $0.0300 $0.0300 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.3800 $0.6700 $0.9700 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9400 $1.26 $1.88 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.9100 $1.27 $1.88 78
Rev-Margin DCF $0.1100 $0.1900 $0.3200 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 26
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 17
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 21/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.1% (2020) → 0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price and −6.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−5.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−5.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)−4.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)−3.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)−2.9%

FRCEF screens overvalued: fair value 57% below the price. Compare with CRH plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 249 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −64.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 2.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −4.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.31× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.49× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.25× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 7.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 6.21× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $85.04 $74.79 −12%
Holcim AG HOLN CHF 64.66 CHF 33.08 −49%
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM $484.30 $207.85 −57%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,155 ₹4,719 −58%
Vulcan Materials Company VMC $245.00 $131.66 −46%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥43.06 ¥28.26 −34%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,191 ₹1,245 −61%
Amrize AG AMRZ $38.22 $35.08 −8%
James Hardie Industries plc JHX A$36.98 A$8.06 −78%
Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 ¥17.51 ¥28.02 +60%

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Fletcher Building Limited · Fair Value
$0.9100 −57%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fletcher Building Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FRCEF

Frequently asked questions

Is Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9100 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $2.10, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FRCEF?
Our model-based fair value for Fletcher Building Limited is $0.9100 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $2.10.
What is the quality score of FRCEF?
Fletcher Building Limited has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9100 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5500, optimistic scenario $1.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fletcher Building Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9100, about −57% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $2.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5500, optimistic scenario $1.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
Fletcher Building Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.0B NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Fletcher Building Limited pay a dividend?
Fletcher Building Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fletcher Building Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FRCEF use?
Our models discount Fletcher Building Limited at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fletcher Building Limited that is +12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fletcher Building Limited grew -0.9 % a year. The price currently implies +12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fletcher Building Limited (+12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.84 %: that much free cash flow Fletcher Building Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fletcher Building Limited it is $0.9100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.10. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fletcher Building Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FRCEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.10, fair value $0.9100, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FRCEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9100). For Fletcher Building Limited the two are $1.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fletcher Building Limited worth?
The market values Fletcher Building Limited at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.10; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FRCEF?
Our models span a range for Fletcher Building Limited: cautious scenario $0.5500, base $0.9100, optimistic $1.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of FRCEF?
The PEG ratio of Fletcher Building Limited is 6.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fletcher Building Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.0%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FRCEF from its 52-week high?
Fletcher Building Limited trades at $2.10, about 4% below its 52-week high of $2.19 and 30% above the low of $1.61 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.9100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fletcher Building Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fletcher Building Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.10, calculated fair value $0.9100 (−57%), Quality Score 33/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FRCEF calculated?
We run Fletcher Building Limited through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.9100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Fletcher Building Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $2.10. Our model-based fair value is $0.9100, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fletcher Building Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($0.5500 to $1.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Fletcher Building Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
The market capitalisation of Fletcher Building Limited is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fletcher Building Limited is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
Earnings per share at Fletcher Building Limited are $−0.1400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
The dividend yield of Fletcher Building Limited is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
The net margin of Fletcher Building Limited is −6.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fletcher Building Limited is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fletcher Building Limited is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
The operating margin of Fletcher Building Limited is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
Revenue at Fletcher Building Limited is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF)?
Earnings per share at Fletcher Building Limited are growing −42.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fletcher Building Limited (FRCEF) carry?
The net debt of Fletcher Building Limited is 2.5B NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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