Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc $20.51, price $11.25, upside +82.3%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Fortuna Silver Mines Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.09 – $13.66 · fair‑value band $13.24 – $33.12 · the $11.25 price screens below the $20.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Follow Fortuna Silver Mines in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Fortuna Silver Mines is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Fortuna Mining Corp. engages in the precious and base metal mining and related activities in Argentina, Côte d'Ivoire, Mexico, Peru, and Senegal. The company operates through Mansfield, Sango, and Bateas segments. It operates the Lindero gold mine and the Séguéla gold mine, as well as the Caylloma silver, lead, and zinc mine.
Show more
Fortuna Mining Corp. engages in the precious and base metal mining and related activities in Argentina, Côte d'Ivoire, Mexico, Peru, and Senegal. The company operates through Mansfield, Sango, and Bateas segments. It operates the Lindero gold mine and the Séguéla gold mine, as well as the Caylloma silver, lead, and zinc mine. The company was formerly known as Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. and changed its name to Fortuna Mining Corp. in June 2024. Fortuna Mining Corp. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM) currently trades at $11.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.51, implying the stock looks roughly 45.1% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.48 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the $11.25 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.79, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.24 (bear) to $33.12 (bull), the price of $11.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc reported revenue of $960M in FY2025 versus $600M in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was $302M in FY2025, compounding +51.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.7B · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 2.98 · EPS (TTM) $1.19 · Net margin 31.5% · Return on equity 24.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 51.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 82%, FSM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.24Fair Value $20.51Bull $33.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8998 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.0% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+48.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+48.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.44.2% vs 21.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 39%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.8% a year for the price and +13.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Fortuna Silver Mines Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−33.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24.2% · Above median
Return on assets16.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)32.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)51.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth38.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.51 versus a price of $11.25, about +82% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FSM?
Our model-based fair value for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc is $20.51 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.25.
What is the quality score of FSM?
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.51 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.24, optimistic scenario $33.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fortuna Silver Mines Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.51, about +82% upside versus a price of $11.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.24, optimistic scenario $33.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fortuna Silver Mines Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.0 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FSM use?
Our models discount Fortuna Silver Mines Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fortuna Silver Mines Inc that is +4.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fortuna Silver Mines Inc grew +28.0 % a year. The price currently implies +4.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (+4.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.96 %: that much free cash flow Fortuna Silver Mines Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fortuna Silver Mines Inc it is $20.51 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $11.25. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fortuna Silver Mines Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, FSM trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.25, fair value $20.51, a gap of about +82% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FSM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.51). For Fortuna Silver Mines Inc the two are $9.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fortuna Silver Mines Inc worth?
The market values Fortuna Silver Mines Inc at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $11.25; our models calculate a fair value of $20.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FSM?
Our models span a range for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc: cautious scenario $13.24, base $20.51, optimistic $33.12 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $11.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FSM?
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.51 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 8.3 (reported for FY2025: 12.5). Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 24.2%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FSM from its 52-week high?
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc trades at $11.25, about 18% below its 52-week high of $13.66 and 43% above the low of $7.84 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fortuna Silver Mines Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fortuna Silver Mines Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $11.25, calculated fair value $20.51 (+82%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FSM calculated?
We run Fortuna Silver Mines Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Fortuna Silver Mines Inc currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.25. Our model-based fair value is $20.51, about +82% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fortuna Silver Mines Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($13.24 to $33.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM) come from?
Earnings per share at Fortuna Silver Mines Inc grew +19.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +5.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
The market capitalisation of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc is 2.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
Earnings per share at Fortuna Silver Mines Inc are $1.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
The net margin of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc is 31.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
The operating margin of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc is 51.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
Revenue at Fortuna Silver Mines Inc is growing +38.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)?
Earnings per share at Fortuna Silver Mines Inc are growing +101% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM) hold?
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc holds more cash than debt, $286M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Fortuna Silver Mines Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Fortuna Silver Mines Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Oct 2, 2026