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Firstrand Ltd (FSR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Firstrand Ltd stock ZAR 70.72, price ZAR 96.95, that is 27.1% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services ZA · ISIN ZAE000066304

FL Firstrand Ltd logo Broad data Nov 11, 2026

Firstrand Ltd

FSR · JSE

Expensive (fair value 27% below the price), but solid company and rising price: meets 2 of 3 rules.

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Quality 63/100 
Rising price (uptrend) 
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.6 %/yr in ZAR) 
Highly profitable · 28.2% net margin (TTM) 
5.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
Wide moat 72/100
Broad data 
Mixed vs. peers (7/15) 
Fair value R70.72 · Overvalued 

Main risks:

🚩UK motor finance redress forces exit
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R98.40 R39.66 Fair Value R70.72 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R39.66 – R98.40 · fair‑value band R44.86 – R88.40 · the R96.95 price screens above the R70.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments.

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The company offers deposits and savings products; personal loans; and asset and invoice finance, as well as SME commercial, residential, and buy-to-let mortgages.

It also provides life and short-term insurance products; and vehicle finance, instalment credit and fleet management, and corporate and investment banking services. In addition, the company offers asset management, as well as vehicle-related insurance services.

Further, it provides franchise advisory, market risk management, capital market flow, and trading and structuring services. It serves retail and public sector customers, small and medium-sized enterprises, businesses, agricultural industry, medium corporates, and institutions.

The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Firstrand Ltd (FSR) currently trades at R96.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R70.72, 27% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R71.54 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the R96.95 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R25.77, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R44.86 (bear) to R88.40 (bull), the price of R96.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Firstrand Ltd reported revenue of 133B ZAR in FY2026 versus 166B ZAR in FY2022, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was 37.5B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap 543B ZAR Large · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 4.08 · EPS (TTM) R6.88 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 28.2% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −27%, FSR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R44.86 Fair Value R70.72 Bull R88.40
Price R96.95 · Downside -27.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6781 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income R38.22 R46.32 R60.13 76
Gordon GGM R44.86 R78.40 R106.22 68
DDM Multi-Stage R44.86 R64.67 R82.54 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R44.86 R78.40 R106.22 68
DDM Multi-Stage R44.86 R64.67 R82.54 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple R65.69 R87.58 R109.48 63
P/B Multiple R40.38 R53.85 R67.31 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R19.23 R25.77 R38.46 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R38.22 R46.32 R60.13 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 40
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 92
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 13
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 80
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 88
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 52
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 79
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.4% vs 5.1%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 40%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

FSR screens overvalued: fair value 27% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −27.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 17.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 28.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 38.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 9.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 14.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.51× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 4.08× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 10.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 48.46× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)50 · sector 33
PAST (return on equity)69 · sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 67

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥7.26 ¥9.14 +26% vs FSR
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥8.69 ¥10.52 +21% vs FSR
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥12.01 ¥13.33 +11% vs FSR
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥7.04 ¥7.73 +10% vs FSR
Bank of America Corporation BAC $50.51 $51.63 +2% vs FSR
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $85.76 $81.15 −5% vs FSR
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $21.75 $17.36 −20% vs FSR
Citigroup Inc C $124.06 $96.55 −22% vs FSR
Royal Bank of Canada RY $202.64 $152.38 −25% vs FSR
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $342.82 $218.18 −36% vs FSR

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Firstrand Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Firstrand Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FSR

Frequently asked questions

Is Firstrand Ltd (FSR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R70.72 versus a price of R96.95, about 27% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FSR?
Our model-based fair value for Firstrand Ltd is R70.72 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R96.95.
What is the quality score of FSR?
Firstrand Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R70.72 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R44.86, optimistic scenario R88.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Firstrand Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R70.72, about 27% lower versus a price of R96.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R44.86, optimistic scenario R88.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Firstrand Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 133B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Firstrand Ltd pay a dividend?
Firstrand Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Firstrand Ltd (FSR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Firstrand Ltd pays a dividend of R5.06 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 7, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1996. The payout ratio is 73.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What is the intrinsic value of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Firstrand Ltd it is R70.72 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of R96.95. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Firstrand Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, FSR trades above its calculated fair value: price R96.95, fair value R70.72, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FSR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R96.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R70.72). For Firstrand Ltd the two are R26.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Firstrand Ltd worth?
The market values Firstrand Ltd at about 543B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is R96.95; our models calculate a fair value of R70.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FSR?
Our models span a range for Firstrand Ltd: cautious scenario R44.86, base R70.72, optimistic R88.40 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price R96.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FSR?
Firstrand Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R70.72 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 10.9. Other multiples: PEG 48.5, P/B 2.5, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
What is the PEG ratio of FSR?
The PEG ratio of Firstrand Ltd is 48.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Firstrand Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 17.1%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FSR from its 52-week high?
Firstrand Ltd trades at R96.95, about 1% below its 52-week high of R98.40 and 27% above the low of R76.16 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R70.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Firstrand Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Firstrand Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price R96.95, calculated fair value R70.72 (−27%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FSR calculated?
We run Firstrand Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R70.72 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Firstrand Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was R96.95. Our model-based fair value is R70.72, about 27% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Firstrand Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R88.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R44.86 to R88.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Firstrand Ltd (FSR) come from?
Earnings per share at Firstrand Ltd grew +6.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Firstrand Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The market capitalisation of Firstrand Ltd is 543B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Firstrand Ltd is 4.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Earnings per share at Firstrand Ltd are R6.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The dividend yield of Firstrand Ltd is 5.2% (payout 73.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The net margin of Firstrand Ltd is 28.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Firstrand Ltd is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Firstrand Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The operating margin of Firstrand Ltd is 38.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Revenue at Firstrand Ltd is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Earnings per share at Firstrand Ltd are growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Firstrand Ltd (FSR) generate?
The free cash flow of Firstrand Ltd is 54.2B ZAR (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Firstrand Ltd (FSR) hold?
Firstrand Ltd holds more cash than debt, 32.9B ZAR net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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