Firstrand Ltd (FSR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Firstrand Ltd ZAR 70.72, price ZAR 92.30, upside -23.4%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R38.59 – R101.51 · fair‑value band R40.66 – R88.40 · the R92.30 price screens above the R70.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments.
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FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments. The company offers deposits and savings products; personal loans; and asset and invoice finance, as well as SME commercial, residential, and buy-to-let mortgages. It also provides life and short-term insurance products; and vehicle finance, instalment credit and fleet management, and corporate and investment banking services. In addition, the company offers asset management, as well as vehicle-related insurance services. Further, it provides franchise advisory, market risk management, capital market flow, and trading and structuring services. It serves retail and public sector customers, small and medium-sized enterprises, businesses, agricultural industry, medium corporates, and institutions. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Firstrand Ltd (FSR) currently trades at R92.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R70.72, implying the stock looks roughly 30.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R76.65 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R92.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R26.03, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R40.66 (bear) to R88.40 (bull), the price of R92.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Firstrand Ltd reported revenue of 133B ZAR in FY2026 versus 166B ZAR in FY2022, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was 37.5B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 517B ZAC · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 3.78 · EPS (TTM) R6.88 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 28.2% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −23%, FSR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R40.66Fair Value R70.72Bull R88.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4488 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.4% vs 5.1%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 40%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.9% a year for the price and +6.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 42 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)28.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)38.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Firstrand Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FSR
Frequently asked questions
Is Firstrand Ltd (FSR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R70.72 versus a price of R92.30, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FSR?
Our model-based fair value for Firstrand Ltd is R70.72 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R92.30.
What is the quality score of FSR?
Firstrand Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R70.72 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R40.66, optimistic scenario R88.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Firstrand Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R70.72, about −23% upside versus a price of R92.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R40.66, optimistic scenario R88.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Firstrand Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 133B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Firstrand Ltd pay a dividend?
Firstrand Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Firstrand Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -17.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FSR use?
Our models discount Firstrand Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Firstrand Ltd that is -17.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Firstrand Ltd (FSR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Firstrand Ltd grew -3.6 % a year. The price currently implies -17.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Firstrand Ltd (FSR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Firstrand Ltd (-17.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.50 %: that much free cash flow Firstrand Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Firstrand Ltd it is R70.72 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R92.30. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Firstrand Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, FSR trades above its calculated fair value: price R92.30, fair value R70.72, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FSR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R92.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R70.72). For Firstrand Ltd the two are R21.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Firstrand Ltd worth?
The market values Firstrand Ltd at about 517B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R92.30; our models calculate a fair value of R70.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FSR?
Our models span a range for Firstrand Ltd: cautious scenario R40.66, base R70.72, optimistic R88.40 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R92.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FSR?
Firstrand Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R70.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 48.5, P/B 2.4, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
What is the PEG ratio of FSR?
The PEG ratio of Firstrand Ltd is 48.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Firstrand Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 17.1%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FSR from its 52-week high?
Firstrand Ltd trades at R92.30, about 9% below its 52-week high of R101.51 and 26% above the low of R73.04 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R70.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Firstrand Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Firstrand Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R92.30, calculated fair value R70.72 (−23%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FSR calculated?
We run Firstrand Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R70.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Firstrand Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was R92.30. Our model-based fair value is R70.72, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Firstrand Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R88.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R40.66 to R88.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Firstrand Ltd (FSR) come from?
Earnings per share at Firstrand Ltd grew +6.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Firstrand Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The market capitalisation of Firstrand Ltd is 517B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Firstrand Ltd is 3.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Earnings per share at Firstrand Ltd are R6.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The dividend yield of Firstrand Ltd is 5.5% (payout 73.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The net margin of Firstrand Ltd is 28.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Firstrand Ltd is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Firstrand Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
The operating margin of Firstrand Ltd is 38.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Revenue at Firstrand Ltd is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Firstrand Ltd (FSR)?
Earnings per share at Firstrand Ltd are growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Firstrand Ltd (FSR) hold?
Firstrand Ltd holds more cash than debt, 32.9B ZAR net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 27, 2026