Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd stock A$0.17, price A$0.29, that is 41.4% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0958 – A$0.4000 · fair‑value band A$0.1500 – A$0.1800 · the A$0.2900 price screens above the A$0.1700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Fitzroy River Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manages royalties and equity investments for oil and gas, and mineral assets in Australia, New Zealand, and the Gulf of Mexico. Its royalty portfolio includes oil and gas, gold, silver, lead, zinc, and copper properties.
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The company was formerly known as European Gas Limited and changed its name to Fitzroy River Corporation Limited in December 2012. Fitzroy River Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Gwelup, Australia.
Stock analysis
Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR) currently trades at A$0.2900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1700, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$0.1900 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the A$0.2900 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.1300, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1500 (bear) to A$0.1800 (bull), the price of A$0.2900 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd reported revenue of A$593K in FY2026 versus A$1.3M in FY2022, a compound −17.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$201K in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$31.3M (≈ $21.6M) Micro · P/S ratio 54.6 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −33.9% · Return on equity −7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −69.9% · Revenue (TTM) A$593K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −41%, FZR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.1500Fair Value A$0.1700BullA$0.1800
Price A$0.2900 · Downside -41.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−106.8% (2021) → −161.2% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.3% a year for the price.
Compare Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside−41.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−33.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−69.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FZR
Frequently asked questions
Is Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1700 versus a price of A$0.2900, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FZR?
Our model-based fair value for Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is A$0.1700 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2900.
What is the quality score of FZR?
Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1700 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1500, optimistic scenario A$0.1800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1700, about 41% lower versus a price of A$0.2900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1500, optimistic scenario A$0.1800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$593K (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd pay a dividend?
Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.0%.
What growth is priced into Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +34.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.0 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FZR use?
Our models discount Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd that is +34.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd grew -3.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +34.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (+34.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.63 %: that much free cash flow Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd it is A$0.1700 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of A$0.2900. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, FZR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2900, fair value A$0.1700, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FZR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1700). For Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd the two are A$0.1200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd worth?
The market values Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd at about A$31.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2900; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FZR?
Our models span a range for Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1500, base A$0.1700, optimistic A$0.1800 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price A$0.2900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −7.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FZR from its 52-week high?
Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd trades at A$0.2900, about 28% below its 52-week high of A$0.4000 and 107% above the low of A$0.1400 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price A$0.2900, calculated fair value A$0.1700 (−41%), Quality Score 50/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FZR calculated?
We run Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.1700 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.2900. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1700, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
The market capitalisation of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is A$31.3M (≈ $21.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is 54.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
The dividend yield of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
The net margin of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is −33.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is −7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is −4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
The operating margin of Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is −69.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
Revenue at Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd is growing +12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR)?
Earnings per share at Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd (FZR) hold?
Fitzroy River Corporation Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$13.2M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 3, 2026