State GAS Ltd (GAS) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$6.3M (≈ $4.6M) · ISIN AU000000GAS2
What is State GAS Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 29% above our fair value of A$0.0085.
As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of State GAS Ltd is A$0.0085 per share against a price of A$0.0110, so the fair value sits 23% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price −8.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0094). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (19/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0085 to A$0.0094), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0110 – A$0.5500 · fair‑value band A$0.0085 – A$0.0094 · the A$0.0110 price screens above the A$0.0085 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
State GAS Ltd (GAS) currently trades at A$0.0110, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0085, implying the stock looks roughly 29.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$0.0500 per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the A$0.0110 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
It earns a return on equity of −5.5%. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0085 (bear case) to A$0.0094 (bull case); at A$0.0110, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −23%, GAS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$0.0500) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (64).
Notify me when GAS reaches fair value
Put GAS on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
State Gas Limited engages in the exploration and development of gas fields in Australia. Its flagship projects are the Reid's Dome gas project comprising the production lease 231 permit and the Rolleston-West project covering an area of approximately 1,414 square kilometers located in the Bowen Basin in Central Queensland.
Full company description
State Gas Limited engages in the exploration and development of gas fields in Australia. Its flagship projects are the Reid's Dome gas project comprising the production lease 231 permit and the Rolleston-West project covering an area of approximately 1,414 square kilometers located in the Bowen Basin in Central Queensland. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
State GAS Ltd reported revenue of A$112K in FY2025 versus A$146K in FY2021, a compound −6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$3.3M in FY2025.
GAS screens 29% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 293 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.78 | C$44.78 | −36% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $199.22 | $105.24 | −47% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
Compare State GAS Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is State GAS Ltd (GAS) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of GAS?
What is the quality score of GAS?
What is the price target for State GAS Ltd (GAS)?
What is the State GAS Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
What is the net profit margin of GAS?
Does State GAS Ltd pay a dividend?
Watch State GAS Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts State GAS Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.