Green Critical Minerals Limited (GCM) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · AU · Market cap A$1.7M
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0340). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0170 to A$0.0340) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0300 – A$0.5550 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0340 · the A$0.1250 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Green Critical Minerals Limited (GCM) currently trades at A$0.1250, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, implying the stock looks roughly 79.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$29.9K. Revenue grew 23.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -29.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$2.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0170 (bear case) to A$0.0340 (bull case); at A$0.1250, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -80%, GCM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Green Critical Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia and Canada. The company explores for graphite, topaz, tungsten, nickel, copper, base metal, and rare earth elements deposits. Its flagship property is the 80% owned McIntosh Graphite project located in Western Australia.
Full company description
Green Critical Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia and Canada. The company explores for graphite, topaz, tungsten, nickel, copper, base metal, and rare earth elements deposits. Its flagship property is the 80% owned McIntosh Graphite project located in Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Chase Mining Corporation Limited and changed its name to Green Critical Minerals Limited in December 2022. Green Critical Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Green Critical Minerals Limited reported revenue of A$29.9K in FY2025 versus A$130K in FY2021, a compound −30.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.8M in FY2025.
GCM screens 80% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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