Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Green Critical Minerals Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.09, upside -70.7%, quality 12 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0300 – A$0.5550 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0340 · the A$0.0870 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Green Critical Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia and Canada. The company explores for graphite, topaz, tungsten, nickel, copper, base metal, and rare earth elements deposits. Its flagship property is the 80% owned McIntosh Graphite project located in Western Australia.
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Green Critical Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia and Canada. The company explores for graphite, topaz, tungsten, nickel, copper, base metal, and rare earth elements deposits. Its flagship property is the 80% owned McIntosh Graphite project located in Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Chase Mining Corporation Limited and changed its name to Green Critical Minerals Limited in December 2022. Green Critical Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM) currently trades at A$0.0870, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, 70.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0170 (bear) to A$0.0340 (bull), the price of A$0.0870 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Green Critical Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$29.9K in FY2025 versus A$130K in FY2021, a compound −30.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.7M (≈ $1.2M) · P/S ratio 58.1 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0400 · Return on equity −29.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.1% · Revenue (TTM) A$29.9K · Revenue growth (YoY) +23.1% · Free cash flow −A$2.2M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −71%, GCM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0170Fair Value A$0.0255Bull A$0.0340
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−43.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −40.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−900.6% (2020) → −9,316.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−70.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−18.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
PEG0.38× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0255 versus a price of A$0.0870, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GCM?
Our model-based fair value for Green Critical Minerals Ltd is A$0.0255 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0870.
What is the quality score of GCM?
Green Critical Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 12/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0255 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0340. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Green Critical Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0255, about −71% upside versus a price of A$0.0870 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0340. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
Green Critical Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$29.9K (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Green Critical Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0255 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.0870. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Green Critical Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GCM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0870, fair value A$0.0255, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GCM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0870); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0255). For Green Critical Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0615 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Green Critical Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Green Critical Minerals Ltd at about A$1.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0870; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0255 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GCM?
Our models span a range for Green Critical Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0170, base A$0.0255, optimistic A$0.0340 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.0870). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GCM?
The PEG ratio of Green Critical Minerals Ltd is 0.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Green Critical Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −29.6%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 12/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GCM from its 52-week high?
Green Critical Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.0870, about 76% below its 52-week high of A$0.3600 and at the low of A$0.0870 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0255 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Green Critical Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Green Critical Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.0870, calculated fair value A$0.0255 (−71%), Quality Score 12/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GCM calculated?
We run Green Critical Minerals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Green Critical Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.0870. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0255, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Green Critical Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0340). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0170 to A$0.0340) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Green Critical Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
The market capitalisation of Green Critical Minerals Ltd is A$1.7M (≈ $1.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Green Critical Minerals Ltd is 58.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
Earnings per share at Green Critical Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Green Critical Minerals Ltd is −29.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Green Critical Minerals Ltd is −10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM)?
Revenue at Green Critical Minerals Ltd is growing +23.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −43.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM) generate?
The free cash flow of Green Critical Minerals Ltd is −A$2.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Green Critical Minerals Ltd (GCM) hold?
Green Critical Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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