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Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Green Dot Corporation $26.42, price $13.02, upside +102.9%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US39304D1028

GD Green Dot Corporation logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Green Dot Corporation

GDOT · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $26.42 · Strongly undervalued (+103%)
!Quality 43/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$54.80 $6.34 Fair Value $26.42 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.34 – $54.80 · fair‑value band $21.38 – $33.92 · the $13.02 price screens below the $26.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Green Dot Corporation, a financial technology and registered bank holding company, provides various financial services to consumers and businesses in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Services, Business to Business Services, and Money Movement Services.

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Green Dot Corporation, a financial technology and registered bank holding company, provides various financial services to consumers and businesses in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Services, Business to Business Services, and Money Movement Services. It provides deposit account programs, including consumer and small business checking account products, network-branded reloadable prepaid debit cards and gift cards, and secured credit programs. The company offers money processing services, such as cash transfer services that enable consumers to deposit or pick up cash and pay bills with cash at the point-of-sale at any participating retailer; and disbursement services, which enable wages and authorized funds disbursement to its deposit account programs and accounts issued by any third-party bank or program manager. In addition, it offers tax processing services consisting of tax refund transfers, which provide the processing technology to facilitate receipt of a taxpayers' refund proceeds; small business lending to independent tax preparation providers that seek small advances; and fast cash advance, a loan that enables tax refund recipients. Green Dot Corporation was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Provo, Utah.

Stock analysis

Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) currently trades at $13.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.42, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $41.53 per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the $13.02 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.52, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $21.38 (bear) to $33.92 (bull), the price of $13.02 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Green Dot Corporation reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$98.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $717M · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) $−1.33 · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity −7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 10.7% · Revenue (TTM) $2.2B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 103%, GDOT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $21.38 Fair Value $26.42 Bull $33.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $37.42 $45.97 $58.53 80
Rev-Margin DCF $34.51 $41.53 $50.81 74
NCAV (Graham) $7.85 $10.52 $15.71 54
All 3 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.85 $10.52 $15.71 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $37.42 $45.97 $58.53 80
Rev-Margin DCF $34.51 $41.53 $50.81 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 27
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.4% (2020) → 2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.6% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+8.6%
Projected 2027 (sales)+7.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.7%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 332 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside +100% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.82× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.34× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 11.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.23× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)87 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 58
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 65

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Visa Inc V $362.04 $227.35 −37%
Mastercard Incorporated MA $555.89 $356.78 −36%
American Express Company AXP $305.07 $206.40 −32%
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $200.55 $125.36 −37%
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹1,009 ₹1,142 +13%
PayPal Holdings PYPL $52.89 $99.46 +88%
Affirm Holdings AFRM $71.77 $16.24 −77%
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹1,006 ₹1,424 +42%
Synchrony Financial, SYF $72.67 $137.28 +89%
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $17.16 $5.57 −68%

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Green Dot Corporation · Fair Value
$26.42 +51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Green Dot Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GDOT

Frequently asked questions

Is Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.42 versus a price of $13.02, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GDOT?
Our model-based fair value for Green Dot Corporation is $26.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.02.
What is the quality score of GDOT?
Green Dot Corporation has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.38, optimistic scenario $33.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Green Dot Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.42, about +103% upside versus a price of $13.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21.38, optimistic scenario $33.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
Green Dot Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Green Dot Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GDOT use?
Our models discount Green Dot Corporation at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Green Dot Corporation that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Green Dot Corporation grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Green Dot Corporation (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.20 %: that much free cash flow Green Dot Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Green Dot Corporation it is $26.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $13.02. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Green Dot Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GDOT trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.02, fair value $26.42, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GDOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.42). For Green Dot Corporation the two are $13.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Green Dot Corporation worth?
The market values Green Dot Corporation at about $717M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $13.02; our models calculate a fair value of $26.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GDOT?
Our models span a range for Green Dot Corporation: cautious scenario $21.38, base $26.42, optimistic $33.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $13.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GDOT?
The PEG ratio of Green Dot Corporation is 1.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Green Dot Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −7.5%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GDOT from its 52-week high?
Green Dot Corporation trades at $13.02, about 12% below its 52-week high of $14.80 and 24% above the low of $10.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Green Dot Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Green Dot Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $13.02, calculated fair value $26.42 (+103%), Quality Score 43/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GDOT calculated?
We run Green Dot Corporation through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Green Dot Corporation currently trades 103 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $13.02. Our model-based fair value is $26.42, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Green Dot Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($21.38). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Green Dot Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
The market capitalisation of Green Dot Corporation is $717M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Green Dot Corporation is 0.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
Earnings per share at Green Dot Corporation are $−1.33. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
The net margin of Green Dot Corporation is −4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Green Dot Corporation is −7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Green Dot Corporation is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
The operating margin of Green Dot Corporation is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
Revenue at Green Dot Corporation is growing +17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)?
Earnings per share at Green Dot Corporation are growing +97.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) hold?
Green Dot Corporation holds more cash than debt, $1.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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