Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gibson Energy Inc. stock C$11.07, price C$31.68, that is 65.1% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$15.26 – C$34.14 · fair‑value band C$8.30 – C$20.16 · the C$31.68 price screens above the C$11.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Gibson Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gathering, storing, optimizing, and processing of liquids and refined products in Canada and the United States. It operates through Infrastructure and Marketing segments.
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The company operates a network of infrastructure assets that include terminals, rail loading and unloading facilities, gathering pipelines, diluent recovery unit, and crude oil processing facility.
It also purchases, sells, stores, and optimizes hydrocarbon products, including crude oil, natural gas liquids, road asphalt, roofing flux, frac oils, light and heavy straight run distillate.
The company was formerly known as Gibson Energy Holdings ULC and changed its name to Gibson Energy Inc. in April 2011. Gibson Energy Inc. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) currently trades at C$31.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$11.07, 65% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of C$30.67 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$31.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$1.28, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$8.30 (bear) to C$20.16 (bull), the price of C$31.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gibson Energy Inc. reported revenue of C$10.7B in FY2025 versus C$7.2B in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$198M in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$5.5B (≈ $3.9B) Mid · P/E ratio 25.8 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) C$1.23 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 21.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −65%, GEI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$8.30Fair Value C$11.07BullC$20.16
Price C$31.68 · Downside -65.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.3% vs 5.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.7% a year for the price and −7.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from long-term contracts that generate predictable infrastructure earnings in storage and midstream services, yet it is held back by an elevated debt to equity ratio and thin evidence of a durable moat.
Main risk: Volatile energy prices represent the single biggest risk by threatening the sustainability of contracted cash flows from the Hardisty hub and related gathering operations.
Gibson Energy has extended its Hardisty hub through the Chauvin pipeline acquisition, adding gathering and treating capacity linked to its main terminal. The business model centers on long-term contracts for storage and midstream services that produce predictable infrastructure earnings. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the new projects and organic expansions deliver enough incremental contracted cash flows to ease the valuation gap, or will added leverage and execution keep it stretched?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−65.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.1% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.41× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.31× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)84· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 77
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gibson Energy Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEI
Frequently asked questions
Is Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$11.07 versus a price of C$31.68, about 65% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEI?
Our model-based fair value for Gibson Energy Inc. is C$11.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$31.68.
What is the quality score of GEI?
Gibson Energy Inc. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$11.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$8.30, optimistic scenario C$20.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gibson Energy Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$11.07, about 65% lower versus a price of C$31.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$8.30, optimistic scenario C$20.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
Gibson Energy Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$13.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Gibson Energy Inc. pay a dividend?
Gibson Energy Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 5.43% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Gibson Energy Inc. pays a dividend of C$1.72 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2011. The payout ratio is 140% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.70 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gibson Energy Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +19.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GEI use?
Our models discount Gibson Energy Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gibson Energy Inc. that is +19.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gibson Energy Inc. grew +16.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +19.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +12.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gibson Energy Inc. (+19.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.77 %: that much free cash flow Gibson Energy Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gibson Energy Inc. it is C$11.07 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of C$31.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Gibson Energy Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GEI trades above its calculated fair value: price C$31.68, fair value C$11.07, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$31.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$11.07). For Gibson Energy Inc. the two are C$20.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gibson Energy Inc. worth?
The market values Gibson Energy Inc. at about C$5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is C$31.68; our models calculate a fair value of C$11.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEI?
Our models span a range for Gibson Energy Inc.: cautious scenario C$8.30, base C$11.07, optimistic C$20.16 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price C$31.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEI?
Gibson Energy Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$11.07 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 21.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 6.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
What is the PEG ratio of GEI?
The PEG ratio of Gibson Energy Inc. is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gibson Energy Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 21.1%, debt of 3.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEI from its 52-week high?
Gibson Energy Inc. trades at C$31.68, about 7% below its 52-week high of C$34.14 and 44% above the low of C$21.98 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$11.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gibson Energy Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gibson Energy Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price C$31.68, calculated fair value C$11.07 (−65%), Quality Score 40/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEI calculated?
We run Gibson Energy Inc. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$11.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Gibson Energy Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was C$31.68. Our model-based fair value is C$11.07, about 65% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gibson Energy Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$20.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (C$8.30 to C$20.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Gibson Energy Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
The market capitalisation of Gibson Energy Inc. is C$5.5B (≈ $3.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gibson Energy Inc. is 0.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
Earnings per share at Gibson Energy Inc. are C$1.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
The dividend yield of Gibson Energy Inc. is 5.4% (payout 140%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
The net margin of Gibson Energy Inc. is 1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gibson Energy Inc. is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gibson Energy Inc. is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
The operating margin of Gibson Energy Inc. is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
Revenue at Gibson Energy Inc. is growing +28.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)?
Earnings per share at Gibson Energy Inc. are growing +60.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) carry?
The net debt of Gibson Energy Inc. is C$2.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026