Griffin Mining (GFM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Griffin Mining £1.54, price £3.10, upside -50.3%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.7000 – £3.33 · fair‑value band £1.08 – £2.01 · the £3.10 price screens above the £1.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Griffin Mining Limited, a mining and investment company, engages in the mining, exploration, and development of mineral properties. The company primarily explores zinc, gold, silver, lead, and precious metal deposits. Its principal asset is the Caijiaying mine located in Hebei Province, the People's Republic of China.
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Griffin Mining Limited, a mining and investment company, engages in the mining, exploration, and development of mineral properties. The company primarily explores zinc, gold, silver, lead, and precious metal deposits. Its principal asset is the Caijiaying mine located in Hebei Province, the People's Republic of China. The company was formerly known as European Mining Finance Ltd. and changed its name to Griffin Mining Limited in January 1998. Griffin Mining Limited was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Griffin Mining (GFM) currently trades at £3.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.54, 50.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £1.67 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the £3.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £0.7000, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.08 (bear) to £2.01 (bull), the price of £3.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Griffin Mining reported revenue of $140M in FY2025 versus $129M in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $22.5M in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 547M GBX · P/E ratio 20.7 · P/S ratio 3.32 · EPS (TTM) £0.1500 · Net margin 16.0% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% · Operating margin 36.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −50%, GFM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £1.08Fair Value £1.54Bull £2.01
Price £3.10 · Upside -50.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1142 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+17.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.4% vs 22.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 22%
2025 sits 103% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 381 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−50.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)36.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.78× · Pricier than median
P/FCF36.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 76
PAST (return on equity)48· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Griffin Mining Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GFM
Frequently asked questions
Is Griffin Mining (GFM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £1.54 versus a price of £3.10, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GFM?
Our model-based fair value for Griffin Mining is £1.54 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.10.
What is the quality score of GFM?
Griffin Mining has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Griffin Mining (GFM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £1.54 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.08, optimistic scenario £2.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Griffin Mining stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £1.54, about −50% upside versus a price of £3.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.08, optimistic scenario £2.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
Griffin Mining reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $151M (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Griffin Mining (GFM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Griffin Mining would have to grow free cash flow by +21.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GFM use?
Our models discount Griffin Mining at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Griffin Mining that is +21.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Griffin Mining (GFM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Griffin Mining grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies +21.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Griffin Mining (GFM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Griffin Mining (+21.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.76 %: that much free cash flow Griffin Mining produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Griffin Mining it is £1.54 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of £3.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Griffin Mining stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, GFM trades above its calculated fair value: price £3.10, fair value £1.54, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£1.54). For Griffin Mining the two are £1.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Griffin Mining worth?
The market values Griffin Mining at about 547M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is £3.10; our models calculate a fair value of £1.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFM?
Our models span a range for Griffin Mining: cautious scenario £1.08, base £1.54, optimistic £2.01 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price £3.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GFM?
Griffin Mining trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £1.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Griffin Mining (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFM from its 52-week high?
Griffin Mining trades at £3.10, about 7% below its 52-week high of £3.33 and 71% above the low of £1.82 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £1.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Griffin Mining?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Griffin Mining stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price £3.10, calculated fair value £1.54 (−50%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFM calculated?
We run Griffin Mining through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £1.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Griffin Mining itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £3.10. Our model-based fair value is £1.54, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Griffin Mining right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£2.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (£1.08 to £2.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Griffin Mining (GFM) come from?
Earnings per share at Griffin Mining grew +19.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin −1.6 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Griffin Mining
How large is the market capitalisation of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
The market capitalisation of Griffin Mining is 547M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Griffin Mining is 3.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
Earnings per share at Griffin Mining are £0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
The net margin of Griffin Mining is 16.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Griffin Mining is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Griffin Mining is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Griffin Mining (GFM)?
The operating margin of Griffin Mining is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Griffin Mining (GFM)?
Revenue at Griffin Mining is growing +21.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Griffin Mining (GFM)?
Earnings per share at Griffin Mining are growing +150% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Griffin Mining (GFM) hold?
Griffin Mining holds more cash than debt, $45.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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