Griffin Mining (GFM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · GB · Market cap 539M GBX
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £2.17 to £1.59 (−26.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£1.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (£1.10 to £1.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.7000 – £3.33 · fair‑value band £1.10 – £1.99 · the £2.82 price screens above the £1.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Griffin Mining (GFM) currently trades at £2.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.59, implying the stock looks roughly 43.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Griffin Mining generated revenue of £137M at a net margin of 16.1%. Revenue grew 49.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £45.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £1.10 (bear case) to £1.99 (bull case); at £2.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -44%, GFM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£2.17) versus Dividend Discount (£0.5600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Griffin Mining Limited, a mining and investment company, engages in the mining, exploration, and development of mineral properties. The company primarily explores zinc, gold, silver, lead, and precious metal deposits. Its principal asset is the Caijiaying mine located in Hebei Province, the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Griffin Mining Limited, a mining and investment company, engages in the mining, exploration, and development of mineral properties. The company primarily explores zinc, gold, silver, lead, and precious metal deposits. Its principal asset is the Caijiaying mine located in Hebei Province, the People's Republic of China. The company was formerly known as European Mining Finance Ltd. and changed its name to Griffin Mining Limited in January 1998. Griffin Mining Limited was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Griffin Mining reported revenue of £140M in FY2025 versus £129M in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was £22.5M in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
GFM screens 44% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 482 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 216.56 MXN | 173.04 MXN | -20% |
| Vale S.A VALEN | 233.40 MXN | 139.49 MXN | -40% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.00 | ₹508.34 | -11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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