Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gunung Raja Paksi stock IDR 275, price IDR 330, that is 16.6% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 160.76 IDR – 534.75 IDR · fair‑value band 266.40 IDR – 283.60 IDR · the 330.00 IDR price screens above the 275.08 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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PT Gunung Raja Paksi Tbk produces and sells steel and steel products.
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The company offers hot rolled coils, steel plates, and coil plates; ERW pipes, expanded mesh, cold rolled coils, lipped channels, spiral pipes, and welded beams; cut to shape, beam boxes, cell beams, honeycombs, UNP, and L-angle products; and equal angle, rectangular hollow section, square hollow section, and unequal angle cold formed products.
It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as PT Gunung Naga Mas and changed its name to PT Gunung Raja Paksi Tbk in 1991. PT Gunung Raja Paksi Tbk was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Bekasi, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP) currently trades at 330.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 275.08 IDR, 17% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 165.89 IDR per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 330.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 80.20 IDR, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 266.40 IDR (bear) to 283.60 IDR (bull), the price of 330.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Gunung Raja Paksi reported revenue of $185M in FY2025 versus $722M in FY2021, a compound −28.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$36.4M in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −17%, GGRP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear266.40 IDRFair Value 275.08 IDRBull283.60 IDR
Price 330.00 IDR · Downside -16.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF139.45 IDR148.34 IDR162.37 IDR82
Growth DCF140.26 IDR148.57 IDR160.73 IDR80
5Y Revenue Exit127.09 IDR132.98 IDR141.44 IDR74
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF139.45 IDR148.34 IDR162.37 IDR82
5Y Revenue Exit127.09 IDR132.98 IDR141.44 IDR74
10Y Revenue Exit132.86 IDR137.20 IDR141.38 IDR68
Multiples
EV/Revenue74.24 IDR80.20 IDR86.16 IDR54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)109.49 IDR165.89 IDR207.36 IDR54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF140.26 IDR148.57 IDR160.73 IDR80
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.6% (2020) → −23.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−5.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−6.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)55.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gunung Raja Paksi Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GGRP
Frequently asked questions
Is Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 275.08 IDR versus a price of 330.00 IDR, about 17% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GGRP?
Our model-based fair value for Gunung Raja Paksi is 275.08 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 330.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of GGRP?
Gunung Raja Paksi has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 275.08 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 266.40 IDR, optimistic scenario 283.60 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gunung Raja Paksi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 275.08 IDR, about 17% lower versus a price of 330.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 266.40 IDR, optimistic scenario 283.60 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
Gunung Raja Paksi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $213M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Gunung Raja Paksi pay a dividend?
Gunung Raja Paksi currently shows a dividend yield of 0.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Gunung Raja Paksi pays a dividend of 0.002 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.0%. The last ex-dividend date was May 26, 2026. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gunung Raja Paksi would have to grow free cash flow by +49.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -21.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GGRP use?
Our models discount Gunung Raja Paksi at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gunung Raja Paksi that is +49.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gunung Raja Paksi grew -21.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +49.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gunung Raja Paksi (+49.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.67 %: that much free cash flow Gunung Raja Paksi produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gunung Raja Paksi it is 275.08 IDR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 330.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Gunung Raja Paksi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GGRP trades above its calculated fair value: price 330.00 IDR, fair value 275.08 IDR, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GGRP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (330.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (275.08 IDR). For Gunung Raja Paksi the two are 54.92 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gunung Raja Paksi worth?
The market values Gunung Raja Paksi at about 4.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 330.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 275.08 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GGRP?
Our models span a range for Gunung Raja Paksi: cautious scenario 266.40 IDR, base 275.08 IDR, optimistic 283.60 IDR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 330.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gunung Raja Paksi (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −2.1%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GGRP from its 52-week high?
Gunung Raja Paksi trades at 330.00 IDR, about 14% below its 52-week high of 382.00 IDR and 77% above the low of 186.48 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 275.08 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gunung Raja Paksi?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gunung Raja Paksi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 330.00 IDR, calculated fair value 275.08 IDR (−17%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GGRP calculated?
We run Gunung Raja Paksi through 6 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 275.08 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Gunung Raja Paksi itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 330.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 275.08 IDR, about 17% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gunung Raja Paksi right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (283.60 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (266.40 IDR to 283.60 IDR), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Gunung Raja Paksi
How large is the market capitalisation of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
The market capitalisation of Gunung Raja Paksi is 4.1T IDR (≈ $228M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
Earnings per share at Gunung Raja Paksi are −19.23 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
The dividend yield of Gunung Raja Paksi is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
The net margin of Gunung Raja Paksi is −19.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gunung Raja Paksi is −2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gunung Raja Paksi is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
The operating margin of Gunung Raja Paksi is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
Revenue at Gunung Raja Paksi is growing +55.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP)?
Earnings per share at Gunung Raja Paksi are growing +154% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gunung Raja Paksi (GGRP) hold?
Gunung Raja Paksi holds more cash than debt, $40.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 6, 2026