Guild Holdings Co (GHLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guild Holdings Co $55.87, price $66.74, upside -16.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range $47.43 – $86.60 · fair‑value band $32.01 – $71.93 · the $66.74 price screens above the $55.87 fair value. 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Guild Holdings Company, through its subsidiary, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Origination and Servicing.
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Guild Holdings Company, through its subsidiary, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Origination and Servicing. It is involved in loan origination, and acquisition and sale activities; servicing activities, including collection and remittance of loan payments, managing borrower's impound accounts for taxes and insurance, loan payoffs, loss mitigation, and foreclosure activities. Guild Holdings Company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock analysis
Guild Holdings Co (GHLD) currently trades at $66.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $55.87, implying the stock looks roughly 19.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $100.58 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the $66.74 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $16.41, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $32.01 (bear) to $71.93 (bull), the price of $66.74 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Guild Holdings Co reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2024 versus $1.7B in FY2020, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $97.1M in FY2024, compounding −28.4%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · P/E ratio 9.9 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) $2.02 · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% · Operating margin 23.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at −16%, GHLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $32.01Fair Value $55.87Bull $71.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.02 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+60.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 10%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth75% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.99× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guild Holdings Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GHLD
Frequently asked questions
Is Guild Holdings Co (GHLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $55.87 versus a price of $66.74, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GHLD?
Our model-based fair value for Guild Holdings Co is $55.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.74.
What is the quality score of GHLD?
Guild Holdings Co has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $55.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $32.01, optimistic scenario $71.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guild Holdings Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $55.87, about −16% upside versus a price of $66.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $32.01, optimistic scenario $71.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
Guild Holdings Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guild Holdings Co it is $55.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $66.74. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guild Holdings Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GHLD trades above its calculated fair value: price $66.74, fair value $55.87, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GHLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($55.87). For Guild Holdings Co the two are $10.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guild Holdings Co worth?
The market values Guild Holdings Co at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $66.74; our models calculate a fair value of $55.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GHLD?
Our models span a range for Guild Holdings Co: cautious scenario $32.01, base $55.87, optimistic $71.93 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $66.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GHLD?
Guild Holdings Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $55.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guild Holdings Co (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GHLD from its 52-week high?
Guild Holdings Co trades at $66.74, about 23% below its 52-week high of $86.60 and 13% above the low of $58.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $55.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guild Holdings Co?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Rocket Companies, Inc, Federal National Mortgage Association, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guild Holdings Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $66.74, calculated fair value $55.87 (−16%), Quality Score 45/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GHLD calculated?
We run Guild Holdings Co through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $55.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guild Holdings Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $66.74. Our model-based fair value is $55.87, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guild Holdings Co right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($32.01 to $71.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Guild Holdings Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
The market capitalisation of Guild Holdings Co is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guild Holdings Co is 0.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
Earnings per share at Guild Holdings Co are $2.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
The net margin of Guild Holdings Co is 8.3% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guild Holdings Co is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guild Holdings Co is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
The operating margin of Guild Holdings Co is 23.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
Revenue at Guild Holdings Co is growing +74.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)?
Earnings per share at Guild Holdings Co are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guild Holdings Co (GHLD) generate?
The free cash flow of Guild Holdings Co is −$669M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guild Holdings Co (GHLD) carry?
The net debt of Guild Holdings Co is $2.9B (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026