Graham Corporation (GHM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.3B
Graham Corporation
GHM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +4.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 91% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.60 – $123.79 · fair‑value band $9.59 – $12.00 · the $111.68 price screens above the $10.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Graham Corporation (GHM) currently trades at $111.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.19, implying the stock looks roughly 90.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Graham Corporation generated revenue of $245M at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue grew 13.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at $11.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.59 (bear case) to $12.00 (bull case); at $111.68, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 148% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -91%, GHM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($20.70) versus DCF Models ($4.75). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Graham Corporation designs and manufactures fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for chemical and petrochemical processing, defense, space, petroleum refining, cryogenic, and energy industries.
Full company description
Graham Corporation designs and manufactures fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for chemical and petrochemical processing, defense, space, petroleum refining, cryogenic, and energy industries. The company offers power plant systems, such as ejectors and surface condensers; torpedo ejection, propulsion, and power systems, including turbines, alternators, regulators, pumps, and blowers; and thermal management systems comprising pumps, blowers, and drive electronics for the defense sector. It also provides heat transfer and vacuum systems, including ejectors, process and surface condensers, liquid ring pumps, heat exchangers, and nozzles; power generation systems, such as turbines, generators, compressors, and pumps; and thermal management systems comprising pumps, blowers, and electronics for the energy sector. In addition, the company offers rocket propulsion systems consisting of turbopumps, fuel, cryogenic, and nuclear propellant pumps; cooling systems, which include pumps, compressors, fans, and blowers; and life support systems that comprise fans, pumps, and blowers for the space industry. Further, Graham Corporation sells and services spare parts for its equipment. It operates in the United States, Asia, Canada, the Middle East, South America, and internationally. Graham Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Batavia, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Graham Corporation reported revenue of $245M in FY2026 versus $123M in FY2022, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was $12.5M in FY2026.
GHM screens 91% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Graham Corporation (GHM) Fits the Data Center Cooling Trade Through Engineered Heat-Transfer Infrastructure
- Graham (GHM) Surges 3.5%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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