Graham Corporation (GHM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Graham Corporation $9.09, price $87.80, upside -89.7%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $9.09 · Strongly overvalued (−90%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +20.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat33/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.60 – $123.79 · fair‑value band $7.97 – $10.02 · the $87.80 price screens above the $9.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Graham Corporation designs and manufactures fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for chemical and petrochemical processing, defense, space, petroleum refining, cryogenic, and energy industries.
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Graham Corporation designs and manufactures fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for chemical and petrochemical processing, defense, space, petroleum refining, cryogenic, and energy industries. The company offers power plant systems, such as ejectors and surface condensers; torpedo ejection, propulsion, and power systems, including turbines, alternators, regulators, pumps, and blowers; and thermal management systems comprising pumps, blowers, and drive electronics for the defense sector. It also provides heat transfer and vacuum systems, including ejectors, process and surface condensers, liquid ring pumps, heat exchangers, and nozzles; power generation systems, such as turbines, generators, compressors, and pumps; and thermal management systems comprising pumps, blowers, and electronics for the energy sector. In addition, the company offers rocket propulsion systems consisting of turbopumps, fuel, cryogenic, and nuclear propellant pumps; cooling systems, which include pumps, compressors, fans, and blowers; and life support systems that comprise fans, pumps, and blowers for the space industry. Further, Graham Corporation sells and services spare parts for its equipment. It operates in the United States, Asia, Canada, the Middle East, South America, and internationally. Graham Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Batavia, New York.
Stock analysis
Graham Corporation (GHM) currently trades at $87.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.09, implying the stock looks roughly 866.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $20.70 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $87.80 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $5.39, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $7.97 (bear) to $10.02 (bull), the price of $87.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Graham Corporation reported revenue of $245M in FY2026 versus $123M in FY2022, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was $12.5M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 78.4 · P/S ratio 3.99 · EPS (TTM) $1.12 · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −90%, GHM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.97Fair Value $9.09Bull $10.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5431 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+38.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39% vs 6%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 6%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 832 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−90% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)78.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.28× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA55.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.15× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)65· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Graham Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GHM
Frequently asked questions
Is Graham Corporation (GHM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.09 versus a price of $87.80, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GHM?
Our model-based fair value for Graham Corporation is $9.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $87.80.
What is the quality score of GHM?
Graham Corporation has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Graham Corporation (GHM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.97, optimistic scenario $10.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Graham Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.09, about −90% upside versus a price of $87.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.97, optimistic scenario $10.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
Graham Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $245M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Graham Corporation it is $9.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $87.80. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Graham Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GHM trades above its calculated fair value: price $87.80, fair value $9.09, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GHM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($87.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.09). For Graham Corporation the two are $78.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Graham Corporation worth?
The market values Graham Corporation at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $87.80; our models calculate a fair value of $9.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GHM?
Our models span a range for Graham Corporation: cautious scenario $7.97, base $9.09, optimistic $10.02 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $87.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GHM?
Graham Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 78.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 9.2, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 55.0.
What is the PEG ratio of GHM?
The PEG ratio of Graham Corporation is 3.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Graham Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GHM from its 52-week high?
Graham Corporation trades at $87.80, about 29% below its 52-week high of $123.79 and 74% above the low of $50.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Graham Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Graham Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $87.80, calculated fair value $9.09 (−90%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GHM calculated?
We run Graham Corporation through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Graham Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $87.80. Our model-based fair value is $9.09, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Graham Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Graham Corporation (GHM) come from?
Earnings per share at Graham Corporation grew +0.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −7.6 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Graham Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
The market capitalisation of Graham Corporation is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Graham Corporation is 3.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
Earnings per share at Graham Corporation are $1.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 78.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
The net margin of Graham Corporation is 5.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Graham Corporation is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Graham Corporation is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Graham Corporation (GHM)?
The operating margin of Graham Corporation is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Graham Corporation (GHM)?
Revenue at Graham Corporation is growing +13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Graham Corporation (GHM)?
Earnings per share at Graham Corporation are growing −57.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Graham Corporation (GHM) generate?
The free cash flow of Graham Corporation is −$121K (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Graham Corporation (GHM) carry?
The net debt of Graham Corporation is $11.8M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026