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Grifols, S.A (GIFLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Grifols, S.A $14.72, price $11.13, upside +32.3%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · US · Home Spain · ISIN ES0171996087

GS Grifols, S.A logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Grifols, S.A

GIFLF · US

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value $14.72 · Undervalued (+32.3%)
!Quality 58/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.6% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$35.35 $7.46 Fair Value $14.72 Aug 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.46 – $35.35 · fair‑value band $8.81 – $20.09 · the $11.13 price screens below the $14.72 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Grifols, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and marketing of plasma-derived medicines in the United States, Canada, Spain, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Biopharma, Diagnostic, Bio Supplies, and Others.

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Grifols, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and marketing of plasma-derived medicines in the United States, Canada, Spain, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Biopharma, Diagnostic, Bio Supplies, and Others. The company offers various hemoderivatives from human plasma for immunology, infectious diseases, hepatology, intensive care, pulmonology, hematology, and neurology treatment areas; and markets diagnostic testing equipment, reagents, and other equipment, as well as provides transfusion medicine, clinical diagnostics, and testing services. It also offers biological products, including albumin, albumin-derived products, immunoglobulins, thrombin, other proteins, and intermediate plasma products to pharma and biotech companies for biopharma use; and whole blood, blood components, processed plasma, and clinical samples to life-science research and in-vitro diagnostic companies for diagnostic use. In addition, the company provides healthcare solutions for hospitals, such as intravenous solutions to maintain or restore fluids and electrolyte balance in patients; high-tech solutions to automate hospital processes; clinical nutrition to deliver nutrition and medication; and medical devices comprising instrumentation and disposable materials for various hospital services, which include interventional neuroradiology, hemodynamics, urology, anesthesiology and cardiovascular surgery, as well as manufacturing services to third parties and research activities. Further, it is involved in engineering services; packaging, labelling, storage, distribution, manufacturing, and development of pharmaceutical products; import, export, and commercialization activities; travel agency services; reinsurance of insurance policies; support services; law business; and consultation, administration, and financing services. The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Barcelona, Spain.

Stock analysis

Grifols, S.A (GIFLF) currently trades at $11.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.72, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.49 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the $11.13 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.17, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $8.81 (bear) to $20.09 (bull), the price of $11.13 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Grifols, S.A reported revenue of €7.5B in FY2025 versus €4.9B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was €402M in FY2025, compounding +20.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $7.7B · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) $0.7100 · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin 16.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 32%, GIFLF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.81 Fair Value $14.72 Bull $20.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5369 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $7.01 $7.41 $8.24 75
FCF DCF $13.38 $31.17 $60.00 74
Growth DCF $13.28 $29.75 $55.60 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $13.38 $31.17 $60.00 74
Owner Earnings $9.59 $24.71 $49.21 70
5Y Revenue Exit $8.58 $22.06 $39.89 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.15 $33.26 $56.75 71
5Y P/E Exit $3.25 $11.32 $20.09 65
10Y Revenue Exit $9.46 $22.49 $41.51 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $13.62 $30.40 $55.00 64
10Y P/E Exit $6.62 $14.90 $25.68 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $4.47 $19.08 $26.05 61
Lynch FV $4.87 $6.96 $9.05 58
PEG = 1.0 $4.87 $6.96 $9.05 55
EPV $4.68 $7.30 $9.55 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.84 $3.67 $5.55 64
DDM Multi-Stage $1.84 $3.17 $3.87 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $10.85 $14.47 $18.09 61
P/S Multiple $8.39 $11.18 $13.98 56
P/B Multiple $8.39 $11.18 $13.98 53
EV/EBIT $13.92 $22.52 $31.12 63
EV/EBITDA $17.11 $26.76 $36.42 64
EV/Revenue $6.54 $14.43 $22.32 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.31 $5.78 $8.63 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $13.28 $29.75 $55.60 73
Rev-Margin DCF $8.58 $21.91 $38.71 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $7.01 $7.41 $8.24 75
ROIC Compounder $4.68 $7.30 $10.83 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $8.42 $12.02 $15.63 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.4% vs −2.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 16%
2025 sits 165% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.6%

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Eli Lilly and Company LLY $1,157 $749.08 −35%
Johnson & Johnson, JNJ $264.74 $168.85 −36%
AbbVie Inc ABBV $261.59 $259.62 −1%
Roche Holding RO CHF 375.20 CHF 326.56 −13%
Merck & Co MRK $143.81 $129.26 −10%
Novartis AG NOVN CHF 118.06 CHF 121.90 +3%
Amgen Inc AMGN $421.51 $463.66 +10%
Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD $149.05 $198.77 +33%
Pfizer Inc PFE $28.12 $24.87 −12%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY $62.40 $75.96 +22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grifols, S.A (GIFLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.72 versus a price of $11.13, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GIFLF?
Our model-based fair value for Grifols, S.A is $14.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.13.
What is the quality score of GIFLF?
Grifols, S.A has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.81, optimistic scenario $20.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grifols, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.72, about +32% upside versus a price of $11.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.81, optimistic scenario $20.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
Grifols, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grifols, S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +9.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GIFLF use?
Our models discount Grifols, S.A at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grifols, S.A that is +9.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grifols, S.A (GIFLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grifols, S.A grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies +9.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grifols, S.A (+9.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.50 %: that much free cash flow Grifols, S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grifols, S.A it is $14.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.13. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grifols, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GIFLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.13, fair value $14.72, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GIFLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.72). For Grifols, S.A the two are $3.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grifols, S.A worth?
The market values Grifols, S.A at about $7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.13; our models calculate a fair value of $14.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GIFLF?
Our models span a range for Grifols, S.A: cautious scenario $8.81, base $14.72, optimistic $20.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is GIFLF from its 52-week high?
Grifols, S.A trades at $11.13, about 20% below its 52-week high of $13.90 and 10% above the low of $10.13 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grifols, S.A?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grifols, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.13, calculated fair value $14.72 (+32%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GIFLF calculated?
We run Grifols, S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Grifols, S.A currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.13. Our model-based fair value is $14.72, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grifols, S.A right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($8.81 to $20.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF) come from?
Earnings per share at Grifols, S.A grew −9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin −5.2 %, tax rate −2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Grifols, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
The market capitalisation of Grifols, S.A is $7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Grifols, S.A is 14.7 (as of Jun 20, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grifols, S.A is 0.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
Earnings per share at Grifols, S.A are $0.7100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
The net margin of Grifols, S.A is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grifols, S.A is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grifols, S.A is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
The operating margin of Grifols, S.A is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
Revenue at Grifols, S.A is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grifols, S.A (GIFLF)?
Earnings per share at Grifols, S.A are growing +43.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grifols, S.A (GIFLF) carry?
The net debt of Grifols, S.A is €8.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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