Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $951M
Canada Goose Holdings
GOOS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $9.43 to $6.34 (−32.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −7.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.88 – $53.08 · fair‑value band $4.75 – $7.94 · the $8.77 price screens above the $6.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) currently trades at $8.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.34, implying the stock looks roughly 27.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Canada Goose Holdings generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue grew 17.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. Net debt stands at $378M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.75 (bear case) to $7.94 (bull case); at $8.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -28%, GOOS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($19.91) versus Dividend Discount ($0.9200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, youth, children, and babies. It operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other.
Full company description
Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, youth, children, and babies. It operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other. The company offers leisure wear, including knitwear, sweats, and t-shirts; outerwear products, including rain and everyday collections, jackets for everyday occasions, fleece, and vests; footwear and accessories products, such as sneakers, boots, hats, scarves, gloves, hood trims, socks, bags and eyewear; and lightweight and heavyweight down jackets for the fall, winter, and spring seasons. It sells its products through e-commerce channels and directly operated retail stores. The company offers its products under Canada Goose, Snow Goose, and Baffin brands in Canada, the United States, North America, Greater China, rest of the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Canada Goose Holdings Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Canada Goose Holdings reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2026 versus $1.1B in FY2022, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $22.6M in FY2026, compounding −30.1%/yr from FY2022.
GOOS screens 28% overvalued. Compare with H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Canada Goose (GOOS) Reports Q1 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates
- Canada Goose (GOOS) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights
- Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
Peer Group
Apparel Manufacturing · 212 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Manufacturing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB HMB | kr 163.45 | kr 165.47 | +1% |
| Ralph Lauren Corporation RL | $374.08 | $224.21 | -40% |
| Moncler S.p.A MONC | €52.08 | €50.69 | -3% |
| LPP SA LPP | 19,380 PLN | 17,754 PLN | -8% |
| Bosideng International Holdings 3998 | HK$4.88 | HK$5.92 | +21% |
| Youngor Fashion Co 600177 | ¥7.57 | ¥5.59 | -26% |
| Page Industries Limited PAGEIND | ₹39,900 | ₹12,395 | -69% |
| Hla Group 600398 | ¥6.05 | ¥9.92 | +64% |
| Eclat Textile Co 1476 | 333.50 TWD | 357.81 TWD | +7% |
| Youngone Corporation 111770 | 87,600 KRW | 196,629 KRW | +124% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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