Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc (GRDN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.7B
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc
GRDN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $22.73 to $16.33 (−28.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (22 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range $16.00 – $43.83 · fair‑value band $12.25 – $21.85 · the $43.83 price screens above the $16.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc (GRDN) currently trades at $43.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.33, implying the stock looks roughly 62.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $28.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.25 (bear case) to $21.85 (bull case); at $43.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 127% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -63%, GRDN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($26.31) versus Asset-Based ($2.18). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States.
Full company description
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States. The company's individualized clinical, drug dispensing, and administration capabilities are used to serve the needs of residents in lower acuity LTCFs, such as assisted living facilities, behavioral health facilities, and group homes. Its Guardian Compass includes dashboards created using data from its data warehouse to help its local pharmacies plan, track, and optimize their business operations; GuardianShield Programs for LTCFs; Order Entry QA Analyzer, which utilizes real-time rules- engine technology to examine prescriptions and detect omissions and/or errors before they become a customer service problem; and Medication Spend Analyzer to break down the monthly drug spending for each of the LTCFs. Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $792M in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $49.2M in FY2025, compounding +31.8%/yr from FY2021.
GRDN screens 63% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks.com featured highlights include Casey's General Stores, Everus Construction, Guardian Pharmacy Services, Expeditors International of W
- Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue?
- Guardian Pharmacy Services Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Guardian Pharmacy Services forecasts $123M-$127M adjusted EBITDA amid ira pricing reset
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 262 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $378.85 | $554.93 | +46% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €41.73 | €32.15 | -23% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 235.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | -52% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.58 SGD | 1.44 SGD | -44% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $194.91 | $338.05 | +73% |
| Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 | R$36.01 | R$47.31 | +31% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $231.61 | $255.97 | +11% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,955 | ₹2,955 | -67% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS | $24.68 | $45.60 | +85% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.68 | ¥7.67 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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