Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. $16.81, price $43.26, upside -61.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range $16.00 – $48.00 · fair‑value band $12.25 – $31.08 · the $43.26 price screens above the $16.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States.
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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States. The company's individualized clinical, drug dispensing, and administration capabilities are used to serve the needs of residents in lower acuity LTCFs, such as assisted living facilities, behavioral health facilities, and group homes. Its Guardian Compass includes dashboards created using data from its data warehouse to help its local pharmacies plan, track, and optimize their business operations; GuardianShield Programs for LTCFs; Order Entry QA Analyzer, which utilizes real-time rules- engine technology to examine prescriptions and detect omissions and/or errors before they become a customer service problem; and Medication Spend Analyzer to break down the monthly drug spending for each of the LTCFs. Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) currently trades at $43.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.81, implying the stock looks roughly 157.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $26.35 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $43.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.18, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.25 (bear) to $31.08 (bull), the price of $43.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $792M in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $49.2M in FY2025, compounding +31.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.7B · P/E ratio 50.5 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) $0.8400 · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 26.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0% · Operating margin 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −61%, GRDN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.25Fair Value $16.81Bull $31.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6145 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+19.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
2025 sits 60% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.5% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (32 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Return on assets14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)50.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B13.31× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.88× · Pricier than median
P/FCF33.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA24.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)11· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRDN
Frequently asked questions
Is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.81 versus a price of $43.26, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRDN?
Our model-based fair value for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is $16.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.26.
What is the quality score of GRDN?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.25, optimistic scenario $31.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.81, about −61% upside versus a price of $43.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.25, optimistic scenario $31.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +19.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRDN use?
Our models discount Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. that is +19.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies +19.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (+19.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.95 %: that much free cash flow Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. it is $16.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $43.26. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GRDN trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.26, fair value $16.81, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.81). For Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. the two are $26.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. worth?
The market values Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $43.26; our models calculate a fair value of $16.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRDN?
Our models span a range for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.: cautious scenario $12.25, base $16.81, optimistic $31.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $43.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRDN?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 13.3, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 24.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 26.9%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRDN from its 52-week high?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. trades at $43.26, about 10% below its 52-week high of $48.00 and 85% above the low of $23.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $43.26, calculated fair value $16.81 (−61%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRDN calculated?
We run Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $43.26. Our model-based fair value is $16.81, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($31.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($12.25 to $31.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The market capitalisation of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 1.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Earnings per share at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. are $0.8400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The net margin of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 26.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The operating margin of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Revenue at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is growing +2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Earnings per share at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. are growing +39.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) hold?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $28.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026