Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. stock $16.80, price $42.39, that is 60.4% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
25‑month range $16.00 – $48.00 · fair‑value band $12.24 – $21.84 · the $42.39 price screens above the $16.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States.
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The company's individualized clinical, drug dispensing, and administration capabilities are used to serve the needs of residents in lower acuity LTCFs, such as assisted living facilities, behavioral health facilities, and group homes.
Its Guardian Compass includes dashboards created using data from its data warehouse to help its local pharmacies plan, track, and optimize their business operations; GuardianShield Programs for LTCFs; Order Entry QA Analyzer, which utilizes real-time rules- engine technology to examine prescriptions and detect omissions and/or errors before they become a customer service problem; and Medication Spend Analyzer to break down the monthly drug spending for each of the LTCFs. Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) currently trades at $42.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.80, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $31.64 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $42.39 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $11.69, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.24 (bear) to $21.84 (bull), the price of $42.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $792M in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $49.2M in FY2025, compounding +31.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.7B Mid · P/E ratio 36.2 · P/S ratio 1.86 · EPS (TTM) $1.17 · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 32.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −60%, GRDN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.24Fair Value $16.80Bull$21.84
Price $42.39 · Downside -60.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.00 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleFred BurkeOfficer, Director671,432 shares at $29.68$19.9MMar 20, 2026
SalePharmacy Investors, LLCMember of 10% owner group827,636 shares at $29.68$24.6MMar 20, 2026
SaleDavid K MorrisOfficer, Director187,855 shares at $29.68$5.6MMar 20, 2026
BuySteven D CoslerDirector3,370 shares at $29.61$99,786Dec 3, 2025
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+19.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
2025 sits 60% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.7% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (35 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Guardian's local network of long-term care pharmacies enables closer clinical interventions and facility relationships, yet the added operational steps leave thin margins without a clear durable moat.
Main risk: The shift from centralized mail order to local long-term care locations adds operational steps that could increase costs and limit returns through sustained margin pressure.
Guardian Pharmacy Services grows by acquiring smaller pharmacies and shifting their residents from centralized mail order to its network of local long-term care locations. This model supports closer clinical interventions and facility relationships yet introduces more operational steps than pure remote dispensing. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the local focus deliver lasting market share advantages or create cost pressures that limit returns?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−60.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)32.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRDN
Frequently asked questions
Is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.80 versus a price of $42.39, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRDN?
Our model-based fair value for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is $16.80 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $42.39.
What is the quality score of GRDN?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.80 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.24, optimistic scenario $21.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.80, about 60% lower versus a price of $42.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.24, optimistic scenario $21.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRDN use?
Our models discount Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. that is +15.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (+15.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.98 %: that much free cash flow Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. it is $16.80 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $42.39. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, GRDN trades above its calculated fair value: price $42.39, fair value $16.80, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($42.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.80). For Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. the two are $25.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. worth?
The market values Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $42.39; our models calculate a fair value of $16.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRDN?
Our models span a range for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.: cautious scenario $12.24, base $16.80, optimistic $21.84 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $42.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRDN?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 13.2, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 22.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 32.0%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRDN from its 52-week high?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. trades at $42.39, about 12% below its 52-week high of $48.00 and 57% above the low of $27.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $42.39, calculated fair value $16.80 (−60%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRDN calculated?
We run Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.80 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $42.39. Our model-based fair value is $16.80, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The market capitalisation of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 1.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Earnings per share at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. are $1.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The net margin of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 5.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 32.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
The operating margin of Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Revenue at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is growing −1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)?
Earnings per share at Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. are growing +88.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) hold?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $28.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026