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Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Brazil Potash Corp. $0.40, price $2.15, upside -81.4%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA10586A1084

BP Brazil Potash Corp. logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Brazil Potash Corp.

GRO · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.4000 · Strongly overvalued (−81.4%)
!Quality 29/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$13.75 $1.31 Fair Value $0.4000 Nov 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

22‑month range $1.31 – $13.75 · fair‑value band $0.2700 – $0.5000 · the $2.15 price screens above the $0.4000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Brazil Potash Corp. engages in the exploration and development of potash properties in Brazil. The company holds interest in the Autazes project, a potash deposit located in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. Brazil Potash Corp. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO) currently trades at $2.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4000, 81.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.2700 (bear) to $0.5000 (bull), the price of $2.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Brazil Potash Corp. reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$72.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $177M · EPS (TTM) $−0.5200 · Return on equity −15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.9% · Free cash flow −$17.6M · Net cash $37.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −81%, GRO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2700 Fair Value $0.4000 Bull $0.5000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.75 $2.34 $3.49 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.75 $2.34 $3.49 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GRO screens overvalued: fair value 81% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 433 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Below median
Fair Value upside −81.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −9.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.80× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 61.10 SAR 67.21 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.08 ¥19.15 +12%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹588.95 ₹647.85 +10%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥57.18 ¥29.56 −48%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Boliden AB BOL kr 521.00 kr 464.45 −11%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥35.19 ¥38.71 +10%
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN C$12.06 C$4.46 −63%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥46.90 ¥23.62 −50%
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹266.35 ₹655.92 +146%

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Brazil Potash Corp. · Fair Value
$0.4000 −81%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Brazil Potash Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRO

Frequently asked questions

Is Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4000 versus a price of $2.15, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRO?
Our model-based fair value for Brazil Potash Corp. is $0.4000 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.15.
What is the quality score of GRO?
Brazil Potash Corp. has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4000 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2700, optimistic scenario $0.5000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Brazil Potash Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4000, about −81% upside versus a price of $2.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2700, optimistic scenario $0.5000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Brazil Potash Corp. it is $0.4000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.15. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Brazil Potash Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GRO trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.15, fair value $0.4000, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4000). For Brazil Potash Corp. the two are $1.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Brazil Potash Corp. worth?
The market values Brazil Potash Corp. at about $177M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.15; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRO?
Our models span a range for Brazil Potash Corp.: cautious scenario $0.2700, base $0.4000, optimistic $0.5000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Brazil Potash Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −15.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRO from its 52-week high?
Brazil Potash Corp. trades at $2.15, about 45% below its 52-week high of $3.89 and 14% above the low of $1.89 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Brazil Potash Corp.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Brazil Potash Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.15, calculated fair value $0.4000 (−81%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRO calculated?
We run Brazil Potash Corp. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Brazil Potash Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.15. Our model-based fair value is $0.4000, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Brazil Potash Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.2700 to $0.5000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Brazil Potash Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO)?
The market capitalisation of Brazil Potash Corp. is $177M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO)?
Earnings per share at Brazil Potash Corp. are $−0.5200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Brazil Potash Corp. is −15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Brazil Potash Corp. is −18.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO) generate?
The free cash flow of Brazil Potash Corp. is −$17.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO) hold?
Brazil Potash Corp. holds more cash than debt, $37.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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