Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Gold Royalty Corp. $0.26, price $2.99, upside -91.2%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.2635 · Strongly overvalued (−91.2%)
!Quality 34/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 3y +58.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(4/11)
!Narrow moat42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.17 – $5.85 · fair‑value band $0.1105 – $0.3910 · the $2.99 price screens above the $0.2635 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Gold Royalty Corp., a precious metals-focused royalty company, provides financing solutions to the metals and mining industry in the United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico.
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Gold Royalty Corp., a precious metals-focused royalty company, provides financing solutions to the metals and mining industry in the United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico. It focuses on acquiring royalties, streams, or similar interests at varying stages of the mine life cycle to build a portfolio offering near, medium, and longer-term returns for its investors. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) currently trades at $2.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2635, 91.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.02 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $2.99 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1105 (bear) to $0.3910 (bull), the price of $2.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gold Royalty Corp. reported revenue of $15.6M in FY2025 versus $192K in FY2021, a compound +200.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $783M · P/S ratio 34.7 · Net margin −26.5% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7% · Operating margin 27.7% · Revenue (TTM) $22.6M · Revenue growth (YoY) +76.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −91%, GROY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0300 to $2.02). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.1105Fair Value $0.2635Bull $0.3910
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+54.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.2%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6,553.1% (2021) → 10.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+54.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +51.2% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Below median
Fair Value upside−91.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth76.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.12× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)34.71× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA77.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 2
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 99
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 21
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2635 versus a price of $2.99, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GROY?
Our model-based fair value for Gold Royalty Corp. is $0.2635 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.99.
What is the quality score of GROY?
Gold Royalty Corp. has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2635 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1105, optimistic scenario $0.3910. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gold Royalty Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2635, about −91% upside versus a price of $2.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1105, optimistic scenario $0.3910. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
Gold Royalty Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $22.6M (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gold Royalty Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +200.3 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GROY use?
Our models discount Gold Royalty Corp. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gold Royalty Corp. that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Gold Royalty Corp. grew +200.3 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gold Royalty Corp. (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.14 %: that much free cash flow Gold Royalty Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gold Royalty Corp. it is $0.2635 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of $2.99. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gold Royalty Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, GROY trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.99, fair value $0.2635, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GROY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2635). For Gold Royalty Corp. the two are $2.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gold Royalty Corp. worth?
The market values Gold Royalty Corp. at about $783M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is $2.99; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2635 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GROY?
Our models span a range for Gold Royalty Corp.: cautious scenario $0.1105, base $0.2635, optimistic $0.3910 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price $2.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gold Royalty Corp. (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 0.2%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GROY from its 52-week high?
Gold Royalty Corp. trades at $2.99, about 43% below its 52-week high of $5.21 and 19% above the low of $2.52 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2635 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gold Royalty Corp.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gold Royalty Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price $2.99, calculated fair value $0.2635 (−91%), Quality Score 34/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GROY calculated?
We run Gold Royalty Corp. through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2635, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Gold Royalty Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $2.99. Our model-based fair value is $0.2635, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gold Royalty Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.3910). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.1105 to $0.3910). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Gold Royalty Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
The market capitalisation of Gold Royalty Corp. is $783M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gold Royalty Corp. is 34.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
The net margin of Gold Royalty Corp. is −26.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gold Royalty Corp. is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gold Royalty Corp. is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
The operating margin of Gold Royalty Corp. is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)?
Revenue at Gold Royalty Corp. is growing +76.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +58.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) hold?
Gold Royalty Corp. holds more cash than debt, $12.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 1, 2026