Groupon, Inc (GRPN) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $615M
Groupon, Inc
GRPN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price −2.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 81% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.20 to $6.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.97 – $51.77 · fair‑value band $3.20 – $6.27 · the $25.03 price screens above the $4.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Groupon, Inc (GRPN) currently trades at $25.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.73, implying the stock looks roughly 81.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Groupon, Inc generated revenue of $498M at a net margin of -20.8%. It earns a return on equity of -15.2%. Net debt stands at $53.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.20 (bear case) to $6.27 (bull case); at $25.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 173% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -81%, GRPN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($11.15) versus Earnings-Based ($1.21). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Groupon, Inc. operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants by offering goods and services at a discount in North America and international.
Full company description
Groupon, Inc. operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants by offering goods and services at a discount in North America and international. It provides deals in various categories, including beauty and wellness, food and drink, home and automotive services, and online services, as well as various types of experiences and services; and discounted and market rates for hotels, airfare, and package deals, as well as deals on various product lines, such as electronics, sporting goods, jewelry, toys, household items, and apparel. The company offers its deal offerings to customers through websites; search engines; applications and mobile websites, which enable consumers to browse, purchase, manage, and redeem deals on their mobile devices; emails and push notifications; affiliate channels; social and display advertising; and offline marketing. Groupon, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Groupon, Inc reported revenue of $498M in FY2025 versus $967M in FY2021, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$83.5M in FY2025.
GRPN screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Groupon (GRPN) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: What to Know Ahead of Q2 Release
- Why Groupon (GRPN) Dipped More Than Broader Market Today
- Notable Monday Option Activity: GRPN, BURL, BA
- Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 151 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $354.46 | $145.14 | -59% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $669.21 | $534.91 | -20% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$460.20 | HK$467.50 | +2% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $485.38 | $209.56 | -57% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $113.30 | $451.51 | +299% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $195.34 | $39.59 | -80% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$44.70 | HK$101.03 | +126% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 191,300 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +21% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$34.74 | HK$65.78 | +89% |
| REA Group REA | A$149.14 | A$88.53 | -41% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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