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Groupon Inc (GRPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Groupon Inc $4.73, price $20.04, upside -76.4%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Groupon Inc
GRPN · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $4.73 · Strongly overvalued (−76%)
!Quality 40/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −18.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -20.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/10)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.97 – $46.36 · fair‑value band $3.20 – $6.27 · the $20.04 price screens above the $4.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Company profile
Groupon, Inc. operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants by offering goods and services at a discount in North America and international.
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Groupon, Inc. operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants by offering goods and services at a discount in North America and international. It provides deals in various categories, including beauty and wellness, food and drink, home and automotive services, and online services, as well as various types of experiences and services; and discounted and market rates for hotels, airfare, and package deals, as well as deals on various product lines, such as electronics, sporting goods, jewelry, toys, household items, and apparel. The company offers its deal offerings to customers through websites; search engines; applications and mobile websites, which enable consumers to browse, purchase, manage, and redeem deals on their mobile devices; emails and push notifications; affiliate channels; social and display advertising; and offline marketing. Groupon, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Groupon Inc (GRPN) currently trades at $20.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.73, implying the stock looks roughly 323.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $11.87 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $20.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.21, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.20 (bear) to $6.27 (bull), the price of $20.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Groupon Inc reported revenue of $498M in FY2025 versus $967M in FY2021, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$83.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $808M · P/S ratio 1.23 · EPS (TTM) $−2.57 · Net margin −16.8% · Return on equity −15.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.3% · Operating margin −2.8% · Revenue (TTM) $498M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −76%, GRPN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.20
Fair Value $4.73
Bull $6.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$12.47
$16.23
$21.74
82
Growth DCF
$12.77
$16.30
$21.17
80
5Y EBITDA Exit
$8.83
$11.87
$15.53
76
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$12.47
$16.23
$21.74
82
5Y Revenue Exit
$6.76
$8.31
$10.31
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$8.83
$11.87
$15.53
76
10Y Revenue Exit
$9.07
$10.75
$12.52
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$10.30
$12.91
$15.78
70
Earnings-Based
EPV
$1.02
$1.21
$1.36
74
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$4.26
$5.80
$7.33
66
EV/EBITDA
$7.13
$9.63
$12.12
67
EV/Revenue
$2.76
$4.09
$5.42
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$12.77
$16.30
$21.17
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$6.76
$8.60
$10.88
74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$1.02
$1.21
$1.36
72
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
40/100
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Profitability
38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
26
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
29/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −16.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.8% (2019) → 1.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.1%
GRPN screens 324% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Compare Groupon Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 149 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOG | $347.41 | $333.34 | −4% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $736.60 | $810.25 | +10% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$451.60 | HK$710.95 | +57% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $501.30 | $551.43 | +10% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $155.67 | $132.52 | −15% |
| Baidu, Inc 9888 | HK$88.55 | HK$49.16 | −44% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$31.22 | HK$101.62 | +225% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 194,700 KRW | 315,395 KRW | +62% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$32.28 | HK$71.55 | +122% |
| REA Group REA | A$152.30 | A$167.53 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Groupon Inc (GRPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.73 versus a price of $20.04, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRPN?
Our model-based fair value for Groupon Inc is $4.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.04.
What is the quality score of GRPN?
Groupon Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.20, optimistic scenario $6.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Groupon Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.73, about −76% upside versus a price of $20.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.20, optimistic scenario $6.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
Groupon Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $498M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Groupon Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -18.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRPN use?
Our models discount Groupon Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Groupon Inc that is +7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Groupon Inc (GRPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Groupon Inc grew -18.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Groupon Inc (GRPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Groupon Inc (+7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.18 %: that much free cash flow Groupon Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Groupon Inc it is $4.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $20.04. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Groupon Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GRPN trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.04, fair value $4.73, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.73). For Groupon Inc the two are $15.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Groupon Inc worth?
The market values Groupon Inc at about $808M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $20.04; our models calculate a fair value of $4.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRPN?
Our models span a range for Groupon Inc: cautious scenario $3.20, base $4.73, optimistic $6.27 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $20.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GRPN?
The PEG ratio of Groupon Inc is 14.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Groupon Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRPN from its 52-week high?
Groupon Inc trades at $20.04, about 30% below its 52-week high of $28.58 and 108% above the low of $9.64 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Groupon Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Groupon Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $20.04, calculated fair value $4.73 (−76%), Quality Score 40/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRPN calculated?
We run Groupon Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Groupon Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $20.04. Our model-based fair value is $4.73, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Groupon Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.20 to $6.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Groupon Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
The market capitalisation of Groupon Inc is $808M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Groupon Inc is 1.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
Earnings per share at Groupon Inc are $−2.57. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
The net margin of Groupon Inc is −16.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Groupon Inc is −15.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Groupon Inc is −4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
The operating margin of Groupon Inc is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Groupon Inc (GRPN)?
Earnings per share at Groupon Inc are growing +109% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Groupon Inc (GRPN) carry?
The net debt of Groupon Inc is $53.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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