Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Gas Plus S.p.A. €6.35, price €6.70, upside -5.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.53 – €7.19 · fair‑value band €4.76 – €7.94 · the €6.70 price screens above the €6.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Gas Plus S.p.A. engages in the extraction, distribution, and sale of natural gas in Italy. It is also involved in the distribution, transport, and storage of natural gas; and sells methane gas, and oil and condensates. The company was founded in 1960 and is based in Milan, Italy. Gas Plus S.p.A. is a subsidiary of US.FIN. S.r.l.
Stock analysis
Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP) currently trades at €6.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.35, implying the stock looks roughly 5.5% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €10.85 per share, and 16 of the 23 models we run sit above the €6.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.80, and 7 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €4.76 (bear) to €7.94 (bull), the price of €6.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Gas Plus S.p.A. reported revenue of €167M in FY2025 versus €84.6M in FY2021, a compound +18.5%/yr. Reported net income was €19.8M in FY2025, compounding +58.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €292M · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 1.76 · EPS (TTM) €0.4500 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −5%, GSP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €4.76Fair Value €6.35Bull €7.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1468 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +81.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+77.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.44% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−12% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 58% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gas Plus S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GSP
Frequently asked questions
Is Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.35 versus a price of €6.70, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GSP?
Our model-based fair value for Gas Plus S.p.A. is €6.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.70.
What is the quality score of GSP?
Gas Plus S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.76, optimistic scenario €7.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gas Plus S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.35, about −5% upside versus a price of €6.70 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €4.76, optimistic scenario €7.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
Gas Plus S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €169M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Gas Plus S.p.A. pay a dividend?
Gas Plus S.p.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gas Plus S.p.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GSP use?
Our models discount Gas Plus S.p.A. at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gas Plus S.p.A. that is -4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gas Plus S.p.A. grew +17.3 % a year. The price currently implies -4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gas Plus S.p.A. (-4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.01 %: that much free cash flow Gas Plus S.p.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gas Plus S.p.A. it is €6.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €6.70. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gas Plus S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GSP trades above its calculated fair value: price €6.70, fair value €6.35, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GSP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.35). For Gas Plus S.p.A. the two are €0.3500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gas Plus S.p.A. worth?
The market values Gas Plus S.p.A. at about €292M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €6.70; our models calculate a fair value of €6.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GSP?
Our models span a range for Gas Plus S.p.A.: cautious scenario €4.76, base €6.35, optimistic €7.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €6.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GSP?
Gas Plus S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €6.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gas Plus S.p.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GSP from its 52-week high?
Gas Plus S.p.A. trades at €6.70, about 7% below its 52-week high of €7.19 and 31% above the low of €5.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gas Plus S.p.A.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gas Plus S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €6.70, calculated fair value €6.35 (−5%), Quality Score 59/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GSP calculated?
We run Gas Plus S.p.A. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €6.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gas Plus S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €6.70. Our model-based fair value is €6.35, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gas Plus S.p.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP) come from?
Earnings per share at Gas Plus S.p.A. grew +2.4 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.5 %, EBIT margin +5.2 %, tax rate −4.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gas Plus S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
The market capitalisation of Gas Plus S.p.A. is €292M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gas Plus S.p.A. is 1.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
Earnings per share at Gas Plus S.p.A. are €0.4500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
The dividend yield of Gas Plus S.p.A. is 3.7% (payout 55.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
The net margin of Gas Plus S.p.A. is 11.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gas Plus S.p.A. is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gas Plus S.p.A. is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
The operating margin of Gas Plus S.p.A. is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
Revenue at Gas Plus S.p.A. is growing +20.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP)?
Earnings per share at Gas Plus S.p.A. are growing +32.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP) carry?
The net debt of Gas Plus S.p.A. is €20.2M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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