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Gas Plus S.p.A (GSP) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · IT · Market cap €254M

GP Gas Plus S.p.A GSP · MI
Price€5.90
Fair Value€6.35
Upside+7.6%
Quality59/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.10% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/14)
Moderate moat 48/100
Evidence: High Range €4.76 – €7.94 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +1.7% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from €4.76 (bear) to €7.94 (bull), base €6.35. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€7.50 €1.59 Fair Value €6.35 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.59 – €7.50 · fair‑value band €4.76 – €7.94 · the €5.90 price screens below the €6.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Gas Plus S.p.A (GSP) currently trades at €5.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.35, implying the stock looks roughly 7.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Gas Plus S.p.A generated revenue of €166M at a net margin of 11.9%. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.3%. Net debt stands at €20.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €4.76 (bear case) to €7.94 (bull case); at €5.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 8%, GSP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €9.47 €11.74 €14.25 80
Residual Income €4.24 €4.36 €4.33 76
Rev-Margin DCF €6.41 €8.18 €10.15 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €9.37 €11.89 €14.80 38
Owner Earnings €8.22 €10.39 €12.90 31
5Y Revenue Exit €6.41 €8.00 €9.85 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €8.77 €12.19 €15.94 41
5Y P/E Exit €7.03 €9.11 €11.12 38
10Y Revenue Exit €7.63 €9.18 €10.92 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €8.96 €11.59 €14.71 37
10Y P/E Exit €8.04 €9.82 €11.71 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €3.08 €7.23 €9.30 54
PEG = 1.0 €1.24 €1.77 €2.30 46
EPV €6.33 €6.97 €7.49 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €4.76 €6.35 €7.94 63
P/S Multiple €3.45 €4.60 €5.75 58
P/B Multiple €5.78 €7.71 €9.64 55
EV/EBIT €7.22 €9.31 €11.39 53
EV/EBITDA €9.36 €12.15 €14.95 54
EV/Revenue €4.18 €5.56 €6.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.83 €3.80 €5.67 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €9.47 €11.74 €14.25 80
Rev-Margin DCF €6.41 €8.18 €10.15 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €4.24 €4.36 €4.33 76
ROIC Compounder €6.39 €7.23 €8.06 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €3.73 €5.32 €6.92 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€9.82) versus Asset-Based (€3.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €166M
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.2%
Net margin 11.9%
Return on equity 8.3%
Free cash flow €46.8M FY2025
P/E ratio 13.0
More key figures
Operating margin 21.7%
EPS (TTM) €0.4500
Dividend yield 4.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +91.7%
Net debt €20.2M FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Gas Plus S.p.A. engages in the extraction, distribution, and sale of natural gas in Italy. It is also involved in the distribution, transport, and storage of natural gas; and sells methane gas, and oil and condensates. The company was founded in 1960 and is based in Milan, Italy. Gas Plus S.p.A. is a subsidiary of US.FIN. S.r.l.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Gas Plus S.p.A reported revenue of €167M in FY2025 versus €84.6M in FY2021, a compound +18.5%/yr. Reported net income was €19.8M in FY2025, compounding +58.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€167M
Latest YoY
+23.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−10.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.3%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.0%
Revenue +18.5%/yr
FY21 €84.6M
FY22 €235M
FY23 €155M
FY24 €135M
FY25 €167M
Net income +58.3%/yr
FY21 €3.1M
FY22 €3.4M
FY23 €49.2M
FY24 €12.5M
FY25 €19.8M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2012-2023) +2.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share −2.5 pp

of which total revenue −2.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +5.2 pp
Tax rate −4.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gas Plus S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GSP

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +8% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Above median
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.19× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.77× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 6.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 43 · sector 14
FUTURE 81 · sector 0
PAST 33 · sector 0
HEALTH 100 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 82 · sector 66

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥28.97 ¥32.55 +12%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $109.04 $91.79 -16%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $42.86 $31.54 -26%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $139.89 $130.19 -7%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $54.86 $30.68 -44%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $183.39 $106.12 -42%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $43.83 $27.06 -38%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$30.46 A$20.71 -32%
EQT Corporation EQT $48.85 $42.85 -12%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $415.70 $79.20 -81%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Gas Plus S.p.A (GSP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.35 versus a price of €5.90, about +8% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GSP?
Our model-based fair value for Gas Plus S.p.A is €6.35 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €5.90.
What is the quality score of GSP?
Gas Plus S.p.A has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Gas Plus S.p.A (GSP)?
Gas Plus S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €166M (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GSP?
The net profit margin of Gas Plus S.p.A is about 11.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gas Plus S.p.A pay a dividend?
Gas Plus S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.10% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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