Gates Industrial Corporation (GTES) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.8B
Gates Industrial Corporation
GTES · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $14.41 to $14.50 (+0.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +9.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($10.46 to $22.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.70 – $29.84 · fair‑value band $10.46 – $22.00 · the $28.25 price screens above the $14.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Gates Industrial Corporation (GTES) currently trades at $28.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.50, implying the stock looks roughly 48.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Gates Industrial Corporation generated revenue of $3.4B at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.46 (bear case) to $22.00 (bull case); at $28.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -49%, GTES screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($18.95) versus Dividend Discount ($4.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Gates Industrial Corporation plc manufactures and sells engineered power transmission and fluid power solutions in the United States, rest of North America, South America, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, East Asia, and Greater China. It operates through two segments, Power Transmission and Fluid Power.
Full company description
Gates Industrial Corporation plc manufactures and sells engineered power transmission and fluid power solutions in the United States, rest of North America, South America, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, East Asia, and Greater China. It operates through two segments, Power Transmission and Fluid Power. The company offers solutions for stationary and mobile drives, engine systems, and personal mobility application platforms; elastomer drive belts; asynchronous and synchronous belts, including V-belts, continuously-variable transmission belts, and Micro-V belts; metal drive components, such as tensioners, idlers, pulleys, sprockets, mechanical water pumps, and other accessories used in belt drive systems; and kits for the automotive replacement channel. It also provides fluid power solutions for stationary and mobile hydraulics, vehicle systems, and other industrial application platforms; hydraulics comprising hoses, tubing, couplings, and fittings, as well as assemblies; thermal and emissions management and related products; and industrial hoses, including data center pumps. The company's products are used in applications across various markets, including diversified industrial applications comprising automated manufacturing, logistics systems, and data centers; everyday consumer applications consisting of printers, power washers, automatic doors, and vacuum cleaners; industrial off-highway, such as construction and agriculture; industrial on-highway commercial vehicles including heavy-duty trucks and buses; energy and resources markets, such as oil, gas, and mining; and personal mobility, including scooters, motorcycles, bicycles, all-terrain vehicles, and snowmobiles. It sells its products under the Gates brand. The company offers its products to aftermarket channel customers and original equipment manufacturers. Gates Industrial Corporation plc was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gates Industrial Corporation reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $251M in FY2025, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2021.
GTES screens 49% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Gates Releases 2025 Corporate Sustainability Report
- Gates Industrial Corp Ltd (GTES) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales and Raised ...
- Gates signals 23.5%+ adjusted EBITDA margin in H2 2026 as it raises full-year EPS to $1.62-$1.70
- Gates Industrial (GTES) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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