Hydro One Ltd (H) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hydro One Ltd stock C$28.03, price C$54.45, upside -48.5%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$25.30 – C$60.19 · fair‑value band C$19.59 – C$43.55 · the C$54.45 price screens above the C$28.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Hydro One Limited operates as an electricity transmission and distribution company in Ontario. It operates through three segments: Transmission, Distribution, and Other.
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The company owns and operates approximately 30,000 circuit kilometers of high-voltage transmission lines and approximately 126,000 circuit kilometers primary low-voltage distribution lines.
It provides telecommunications support services for its transmission and distribution businesses; and information and communications technology services and solutions. It serves residential, small business, commercial, and industrial customers, as well as municipal utilities.
Hydro One Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Hydro One Ltd (H) currently trades at C$54.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$28.03, 48.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$33.63 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the C$54.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$12.97, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$19.59 (bear) to C$43.55 (bull), the price of C$54.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hydro One Ltd reported revenue of C$9.0B in FY2025 versus C$7.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$32.7B (≈ $23.3B) Large · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 3.44 · EPS (TTM) C$2.36 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 14.9% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −49%, H screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$19.59Fair Value C$28.03BullC$43.55
Price C$54.45 · Upside -48.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.8605 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.8% vs 4.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 25%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (77 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Regulated utility draws strength from infrastructure scale but is limited by weak innovation and negative free cash flow with elevated debt.
Main risk: Risks of execution and regulatory approval for the grid upgrade plan could prevent adequate regulated returns on the expanded rate base.
Hydro One just filed a five-year plan with the Ontario Energy Board for roughly 37 billion dollars in grid upgrades to replace aging lines, add capacity for new demand and improve reliability. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the regulated returns on this expanded rate base deliver more value than the costs and risks of execution and approval?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−48.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.2% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)26.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.43× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.59× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.44× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.36× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)57· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)45· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)29· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)48· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hydro One Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/H.TO
Frequently asked questions
Is Hydro One Ltd (H) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$28.03 versus a price of C$54.45, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H?
Our model-based fair value for Hydro One Ltd is C$28.03 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$54.45.
What is the quality score of H?
Hydro One Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hydro One Ltd (H)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$28.03 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$19.59, optimistic scenario C$43.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hydro One Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$28.03, about −49% upside versus a price of C$54.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$19.59, optimistic scenario C$43.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
Hydro One Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$9.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Hydro One Ltd pay a dividend?
Hydro One Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.41% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hydro One Ltd it is C$28.03 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of C$54.45. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hydro One Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, H trades above its calculated fair value: price C$54.45, fair value C$28.03, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of H?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$54.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$28.03). For Hydro One Ltd the two are C$26.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hydro One Ltd worth?
The market values Hydro One Ltd at about C$32.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is C$54.45; our models calculate a fair value of C$28.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about H?
Our models span a range for Hydro One Ltd: cautious scenario C$19.59, base C$28.03, optimistic C$43.55 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price C$54.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of H?
Hydro One Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$28.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 2.6, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 15.1.
What is the PEG ratio of H?
The PEG ratio of Hydro One Ltd is 3.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hydro One Ltd (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 1.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is H from its 52-week high?
Hydro One Ltd trades at C$54.45, about 10% below its 52-week high of C$60.19 and 8% above the low of C$50.33 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$28.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hydro One Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hydro One Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price C$54.45, calculated fair value C$28.03 (−49%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of H calculated?
We run Hydro One Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$28.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Hydro One Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was C$54.45. Our model-based fair value is C$28.03, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hydro One Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$43.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (C$19.59 to C$43.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hydro One Ltd (H) come from?
Earnings per share at Hydro One Ltd grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.3 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hydro One Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
The market capitalisation of Hydro One Ltd is C$32.7B (≈ $23.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hydro One Ltd is 3.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
Earnings per share at Hydro One Ltd are C$2.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
The dividend yield of Hydro One Ltd is 2.4% (payout 55.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
The net margin of Hydro One Ltd is 14.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hydro One Ltd is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hydro One Ltd is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hydro One Ltd (H)?
The operating margin of Hydro One Ltd is 26.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hydro One Ltd (H)?
Revenue at Hydro One Ltd is growing +11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hydro One Ltd (H)?
Earnings per share at Hydro One Ltd are growing +14.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hydro One Ltd (H) generate?
The free cash flow of Hydro One Ltd is −C$275M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hydro One Ltd (H) carry?
The net debt of Hydro One Ltd is C$18.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026