Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hayward Holdings Inc stock $13.93, price $16.89, that is 17.5% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.13 – $27.55 · fair‑value band $8.83 – $19.37 · the $16.89 price screens above the $13.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Follow Hayward Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Hayward Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Hayward Holdings, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets a portfolio of pool equipment and associated automation systems in North America, Europe, and internationally.
Show moreShow less
It offers pool equipment, including pumps, filters, robotics, suction and pressure cleaners, water features and landscape lighting, water sanitizers, salt chlorine generators, gas heaters and heat pumps, safety equipment, and in-floor automated cleaning systems, as well as LED illumination solutions.
The company sells its products through specialty distributors, retailers, pool builders, and buying groups. Hayward Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW) currently trades at $16.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.93, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $13.90 per share, and 2 of the 23 models we run sit above the $16.89 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.78, and 21 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.83 (bear) to $19.37 (bull), the price of $16.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hayward Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound −5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $152M in FY2025, compounding −7.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.7B Mid · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 3.20 · EPS (TTM) $0.7700 · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5% (5-year average) · Revenue (TTM) $1.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −18%, HAYW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.83Fair Value $13.93Bull$19.37
Price $16.89 · Downside -17.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6624 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $6.8M and none bought.
SaleSusan M. CanningSVP, CLO, Corporate Secretary5× since Aug 17, 2026: 17,500 shares, avg. $14.37$251,400Nov 2, 2026
SaleKevin HolleranPresident and CEO, Director12× since Dec 5, 2025: 744,906 shares, avg. $15.44$11.5MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEifion JonesSenior Vice President and CFO15,000 shares at $14.57$218,550Mar 9, 202610b5-1 plan
Plan buySusan M. CanningSVP, CLO, Corporate Secretary2,242 shares at $12.76$28,608Apr 30, 2026
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 21%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Hayward benefits from resilient aftermarket demand tied to its large installed base of pool equipment, yet it shows only moderate competitive positioning without clear durable advantages.
Main risk: A slowdown in discretionary pool spending would reduce demand for new equipment and could pressure overall margins despite the resilient aftermarket stream.
Hayward generates most of its revenue from the aftermarket needs of its large installed base of pool equipment, a stream that has proven resilient even when new construction slows. At the same time the company continues to invest in automation and energy-efficient products to tap into broader outdoor living trends. Our models currently see the stock as undervalued. Will the steady replacement cycle support margins more than any slowdown in discretionary pool spending hurts them?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 604 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.34× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.20× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.5× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.93 versus a price of $16.89, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HAYW?
Our model-based fair value for Hayward Holdings Inc is $13.93 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.89.
What is the quality score of HAYW?
Hayward Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.93 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.83, optimistic scenario $19.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hayward Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.93, about 18% lower versus a price of $16.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.83, optimistic scenario $19.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
Hayward Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hayward Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HAYW use?
Our models discount Hayward Holdings Inc at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.18, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hayward Holdings Inc that is +9.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hayward Holdings Inc grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hayward Holdings Inc (+9.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.05 %: that much free cash flow Hayward Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hayward Holdings Inc it is $13.93 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $16.89. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hayward Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, HAYW trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.89, fair value $13.93, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAYW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.93). For Hayward Holdings Inc the two are $2.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hayward Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Hayward Holdings Inc at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $16.89; our models calculate a fair value of $13.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAYW?
Our models span a range for Hayward Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $8.83, base $13.93, optimistic $19.37 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $16.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAYW?
Hayward Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.93 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2021, FY2022, FY2023 ex one-offs: 24.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.3, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 14.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HAYW?
The PEG ratio of Hayward Holdings Inc is 1.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hayward Holdings Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAYW from its 52-week high?
Hayward Holdings Inc trades at $16.89, about 2% below its 52-week high of $17.31 and 49% above the low of $11.35 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hayward Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Vertiv Holdings, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hayward Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $16.89, calculated fair value $13.93 (−18%), Quality Score 64/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAYW calculated?
We run Hayward Holdings Inc through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.93 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Hayward Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $16.89. Our model-based fair value is $13.93, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hayward Holdings Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($8.83 to $19.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hayward Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
The market capitalisation of Hayward Holdings Inc is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hayward Holdings Inc is 3.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
Earnings per share at Hayward Holdings Inc are $0.7700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
The net margin of Hayward Holdings Inc is 14.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hayward Holdings Inc is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hayward Holdings Inc is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
Revenue at Hayward Holdings Inc is growing +6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW)?
Earnings per share at Hayward Holdings Inc are growing +36.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW) hold?
Hayward Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $316M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Hayward Holdings Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Hayward Holdings Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 4, 2026