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Bank of China Limited (HBND) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bank of China Limited S$1.73, price S$0.97, upside +79.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · SG

BO Bank of China Limited logo Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Bank of China Limited

HBND · SG

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value 1.73 SGD · Strongly undervalued (+79.3%)
!Quality 54/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +3.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 43.3% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
✓Wide moat 67/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

1.04 SGD 0.5579 SGD Fair Value 1.73 SGD Oct 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

23‑month range 0.5579 SGD – 1.04 SGD · fair‑value band 1.59 SGD – 2.62 SGD · the 0.9650 SGD price screens below the 1.73 SGD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial services in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury Operations, Investment Banking, Insurance, and Other.

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Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial services in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury Operations, Investment Banking, Insurance, and Other. The Corporate Banking segment provides current accounts, deposits, overdrafts, loans, payments and settlements, trade-related products, and other credit facilities, as well as foreign currency, derivative, and wealth management products for corporate customers, government authorities, and financial institutions. The Personal Banking segment offers savings deposits, personal loans, credit cards and debit cards, payments and settlements, wealth management, and funds and insurance agency services to retail customers. The Treasury Operations segment offers foreign exchange transactions, customer-based interest rate, and foreign exchange derivative transactions, as well as money market transactions, proprietary trading, and asset and liability management. The Investment Banking segment provides debt and equity underwriting and financial advisory, sale and trading of securities, stock brokerage, investment research, asset management services, and private equity investment services. The Insurance segment provides underwriting services for general and life insurance business, and insurance agency services. In addition, it operates debt-to-equity swaps and other supporting, and aircraft and financial leasing business. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Bank of China Limited (HBND) currently trades at 0.9650 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.73 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 44.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 1.87 SGD per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the 0.9650 SGD price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 1.21 SGD, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 1.59 SGD (bear) to 2.62 SGD (bull), the price of 0.9650 SGD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Bank of China Limited reported revenue of 657B CNY in FY2025 versus 604B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 243B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 311B SGD (≈ $243B) · P/E ratio 5.7 · P/S ratio 2.10 · EPS (TTM) 0.1400 SGD · Net margin 37.0% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets 0.7% · Operating margin 53.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 79%, HBND screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 1.59 SGD Fair Value 1.73 SGD Bull 2.62 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 1.54 SGD 1.66 SGD 1.89 SGD 76
Gordon GGM 0.8100 SGD 1.35 SGD 2.00 SGD 67
DDM Multi-Stage 0.8100 SGD 1.21 SGD 1.67 SGD 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.8100 SGD 1.35 SGD 2.00 SGD 67
DDM Multi-Stage 0.8100 SGD 1.21 SGD 1.67 SGD 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 1.40 SGD 1.87 SGD 2.33 SGD 63
P/B Multiple 1.83 SGD 2.44 SGD 3.05 SGD 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.9000 SGD 1.21 SGD 1.81 SGD 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1.54 SGD 1.66 SGD 1.89 SGD 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 38
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 26
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.8% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.6%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside +46.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 43.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 53.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 23.4% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.53× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.87× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 2.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.14× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)95 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)30 · sector 56
PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 41
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 69

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $330.83 $188.11 −43%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥8.28 ¥10.93 +32%
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥10.98 ¥13.69 +25%
Bank of America Corporation BAC $55.47 $42.37 −24%
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥6.97 ¥12.94 +86%
Royal Bank of Canada RY $200.95 $130.85 −35%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $23.37 $14.86 −36%
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $80.05 $66.44 −17%
Citigroup Inc C $130.80 $107.10 −18%
Banco Santander, S.A SAN €11.81 €8.19 −31%

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Bank of China Limited · Fair Value
1.73 SGD +44%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank of China Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HBND

Frequently asked questions

Is Bank of China Limited (HBND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.73 SGD versus a price of 0.9650 SGD, about +79% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HBND?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of China Limited is 1.73 SGD (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.9650 SGD.
What is the quality score of HBND?
Bank of China Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.73 SGD (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.59 SGD, optimistic scenario 2.62 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank of China Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.73 SGD, about +79% upside versus a price of 0.9650 SGD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1.59 SGD, optimistic scenario 2.62 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
Bank of China Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 567B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank of China Limited would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HBND use?
Our models discount Bank of China Limited at 7.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank of China Limited that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank of China Limited (HBND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank of China Limited grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank of China Limited (HBND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank of China Limited (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 46.83 %: that much free cash flow Bank of China Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank of China Limited it is 1.73 SGD per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of 0.9650 SGD. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank of China Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, HBND trades below its calculated fair value: price 0.9650 SGD, fair value 1.73 SGD, a gap of about +79% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HBND?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.9650 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.73 SGD). For Bank of China Limited the two are 0.7650 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank of China Limited worth?
The market values Bank of China Limited at about 311B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is 0.9650 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 1.73 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HBND?
Our models span a range for Bank of China Limited: cautious scenario 1.59 SGD, base 1.73 SGD, optimistic 2.62 SGD per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price 0.9650 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HBND?
Bank of China Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.7 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.73 SGD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 0.5, P/S 2.9.
What is the PEG ratio of HBND?
The PEG ratio of Bank of China Limited is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank of China Limited (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 8.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HBND from its 52-week high?
Bank of China Limited trades at 0.9650 SGD, about 7% below its 52-week high of 1.04 SGD and 45% above the low of 0.6658 SGD (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.73 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank of China Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank of China Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price 0.9650 SGD, calculated fair value 1.73 SGD (+79%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HBND calculated?
We run Bank of China Limited through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.73 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank of China Limited currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 0.9650 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 1.73 SGD, about +79% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank of China Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (1.59 SGD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Bank of China Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
The market capitalisation of Bank of China Limited is 311B SGD (≈ $243B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank of China Limited is 2.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
Earnings per share at Bank of China Limited are 0.1400 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
The net margin of Bank of China Limited is 37.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank of China Limited is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Bank of China Limited is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
The operating margin of Bank of China Limited is 53.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank of China Limited (HBND)?
Revenue at Bank of China Limited is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
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