Holcim Ltd (HCMLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Holcim Ltd $38.91, price $75.95, upside -48.8%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.85 – $115.17 · fair‑value band $34.27 – $44.26 · the $75.95 price screens above the $38.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa.
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Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and precast, concrete products, asphalts, mortars, roofing systems, insulation systems, tile adhesives, facade solutions, and contracting and services. The company also provides digital services through HOLCIM+ platform and digital concrete services. Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, railways and train stations, airports and ports, and bridges; housing projects, including individual and collective housing; commercial projects comprising offices, retail, and public buildings; and industrial projects consisting of renewable energy, oil and gas, and mining. The company sells its products under the ECOPact, ECOPlanet, Aggneo, Hydromedia, ZinCo Holcim, Elevate, Airium, PRB Group, Cantillana, Flachdach Technologie, Izolbet, Disensa, Tector, DYNAMax, Agilia, Ductal, Artevia, Humes, Tensolite, Compaktuna, and other service brands. The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim AG in May 2021. Holcim AG was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Holcim Ltd (HCMLF) currently trades at $75.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.91, 48.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $49.49 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $75.95 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.05, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $34.27 (bear) to $44.26 (bull), the price of $75.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Holcim Ltd reported revenue of CHF 15.7B in FY2025 versus CHF 26.8B in FY2021, a compound −12.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 389M in FY2025, compounding −35.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $50.9B · P/E ratio 86.3 · P/S ratio 2.14 · EPS (TTM) $0.8800 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −49%, HCMLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $34.27Fair Value $38.91Bull $44.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28.2% vs −14.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CHF, Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.7% a year for the price and +6.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+2.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)83.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holcim Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCMLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Holcim Ltd (HCMLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.91 versus a price of $75.95, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HCMLF?
Our model-based fair value for Holcim Ltd is $38.91 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $75.95.
What is the quality score of HCMLF?
Holcim Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.91 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.27, optimistic scenario $44.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holcim Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.91, about −49% upside versus a price of $75.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $34.27, optimistic scenario $44.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
Holcim Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 15.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Holcim Ltd pay a dividend?
Holcim Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Holcim Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HCMLF use?
Our models discount Holcim Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Holcim Ltd that is +8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Holcim Ltd (HCMLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Holcim Ltd grew -7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Holcim Ltd (+8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.97 %: that much free cash flow Holcim Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holcim Ltd it is $38.91 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $75.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holcim Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, HCMLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $75.95, fair value $38.91, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCMLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($75.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.91). For Holcim Ltd the two are $37.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holcim Ltd worth?
The market values Holcim Ltd at about $50.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $75.95; our models calculate a fair value of $38.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCMLF?
Our models span a range for Holcim Ltd: cautious scenario $34.27, base $38.91, optimistic $44.26 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $75.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCMLF?
Holcim Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 86.3 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4.
What is the PEG ratio of HCMLF?
The PEG ratio of Holcim Ltd is 0.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holcim Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 2.1%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCMLF from its 52-week high?
Holcim Ltd trades at $75.95, about 27% below its 52-week high of $103.84 and at the low of $75.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holcim Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holcim Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $75.95, calculated fair value $38.91 (−49%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCMLF calculated?
We run Holcim Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Holcim Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $75.95. Our model-based fair value is $38.91, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holcim Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($44.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF) come from?
Earnings per share at Holcim Ltd grew +1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.7 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Holcim Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
The market capitalisation of Holcim Ltd is $50.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holcim Ltd is 2.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
Earnings per share at Holcim Ltd are $0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 86.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
The dividend yield of Holcim Ltd is 2.2% (payout 193%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
The net margin of Holcim Ltd is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holcim Ltd is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holcim Ltd is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
The operating margin of Holcim Ltd is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
Revenue at Holcim Ltd is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holcim Ltd (HCMLF)?
Earnings per share at Holcim Ltd are growing +10.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Holcim Ltd (HCMLF) carry?
The net debt of Holcim Ltd is CHF 4.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026