Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hercules Capital, Inc. $49.08, price $24.95, upside +96.7%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.15 – $25.13 · fair‑value band $39.88 – $89.87 · the $24.95 price screens below the $49.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hercules Capital, Inc., formerly known as Hercules Technology Growth Capital, Inc., is a business development company specializing in providing venture debt, debt, senior secured loans, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from startups, to expansion stage including select publicly listed …
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Hercules Capital, Inc., formerly known as Hercules Technology Growth Capital, Inc., is a business development company specializing in providing venture debt, debt, senior secured loans, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from startups, to expansion stage including select publicly listed companies and select special opportunity lower middle market companies that require additional capital to fund acquisitions, recapitalizations and refinancing and established-stage companies. The firm provides growth capital financing solutions for capital extension; management buy-out and corporate spin-out financing solutions; company, asset specific, or intellectual property acquisition financing; convertible, subordinated and/or mezzanine loans; domestic and international corporate expansion; vendor financing; revenue acceleration by sales and marketing development, and manufacturing expansion. It provides asset-based financing with a focus on cash flow; accounts receivable facilities; equipment loans or leases; equipment acquisition; facilities build-out and/or expansion; working capital revolving lines of credit; inventory. The firm also provides bridge financing to IPO or mergers and acquisitions or technology acquisition; dividend recapitalizations and other sources of investor liquidity; cash flow financing to protect against share price volatility; competitor acquisition; pre-IPO financing for extra cash on the balance sheet; public company financing to continue asset growth and production capacity; short-term bridge financing; and strategic and intellectual property acquisition financings. It also focuses on customized financing solutions, seed, startups, early stage, emerging growth, mid venture, and late venture financing. The firm invests primarily in structured debt with warrants and, to a lesser extent, in senior debt and equity investments. The firm generally seeks to invest in companies that have been operating for at least six to 12 months prior to
Stock analysis
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY) currently trades at $24.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.08, implying the stock looks roughly 49.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $59.21 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the $24.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $28.34, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $39.88 (bear) to $89.87 (bull), the price of $24.95 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hercules Capital, Inc. reported revenue of $492M in FY2025 versus $281M in FY2021, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was $340M in FY2025, compounding +18.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 13.3 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 69.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8% · Free cash flow −$426M · Net debt $2.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 97%, HCXY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $39.88Fair Value $49.08Bull $89.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.4% vs 6.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.80% → 88%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Investment Banking & Investment Services · 19 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hercules Capital, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCXY
Frequently asked questions
Is Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $49.08 versus a price of $24.95, about +97% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HCXY?
Our model-based fair value for Hercules Capital, Inc. is $49.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.95.
What is the quality score of HCXY?
Hercules Capital, Inc. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $49.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.88, optimistic scenario $89.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hercules Capital, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $49.08, about +97% upside versus a price of $24.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $39.88, optimistic scenario $89.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Hercules Capital, Inc. pay a dividend?
Hercules Capital, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hercules Capital, Inc. it is $49.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $24.95. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hercules Capital, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HCXY trades below its calculated fair value: price $24.95, fair value $49.08, a gap of about +97% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCXY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($49.08). For Hercules Capital, Inc. the two are $24.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hercules Capital, Inc. worth?
The market values Hercules Capital, Inc. at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $24.95; our models calculate a fair value of $49.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCXY?
Our models span a range for Hercules Capital, Inc.: cautious scenario $39.88, base $49.08, optimistic $89.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $24.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCXY?
Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $49.08 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.2 (reported for FY2025: 14.3). Other multiples: P/B 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hercules Capital, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 0.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCXY from its 52-week high?
Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at $24.95, about 1% below its 52-week high of $25.13 and 6% above the low of $23.64 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $49.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hercules Capital, Inc.?
From the same area (Financials) we also value Mirae Asset Venture Investment Co, Aju IB Investment Co, EBEST Investment & Securities Co, PSE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hercules Capital, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $24.95, calculated fair value $49.08 (+97%), Quality Score 38/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCXY calculated?
We run Hercules Capital, Inc. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $49.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hercules Capital, Inc. currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $24.95. Our model-based fair value is $49.08, about +97% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hercules Capital, Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($39.88). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($39.88 to $89.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Hercules Capital, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
The market capitalisation of Hercules Capital, Inc. is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 13.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
The dividend yield of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 5.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
The net margin of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 69.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY) generate?
The free cash flow of Hercules Capital, Inc. is −$426M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY) carry?
The net debt of Hercules Capital, Inc. is $2.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026