Hercules Capital, Inc (HCXY) Fair Value & Analysis

Financials · US · Market cap $1.3B

Below-average quality, screening 101% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($37.74). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.42 – $25.20 · fair‑value band $37.74 – $62.90 · the $25.00 price screens below the $50.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Hercules Capital, Inc (HCXY) currently trades at $25.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.32, implying the stock looks roughly 101.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Financials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Net debt stands at $2.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 19.4. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $37.74 (bear case) to $62.90 (bull case); at $25.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 101%, HCXY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($59.33) versus Asset-Based ($28.39). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hercules Capital, Inc., formerly known as Hercules Technology Growth Capital, Inc., is a business development company specializing in providing venture debt, debt, senior secured loans, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from startups, to expansion stage including select publicly listed …

Full company description

Hercules Capital, Inc., formerly known as Hercules Technology Growth Capital, Inc., is a business development company specializing in providing venture debt, debt, senior secured loans, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from startups, to expansion stage including select publicly listed companies and select special opportunity lower middle market companies that require additional capital to fund acquisitions, recapitalizations and refinancing and established-stage companies. The firm provides growth capital financing solutions for capital extension; management buy-out and corporate spin-out financing solutions; company, asset specific, or intellectual property acquisition financing; convertible, subordinated and/or mezzanine loans; domestic and international corporate expansion; vendor financing; revenue acceleration by sales and marketing development, and manufacturing expansion. It provides asset-based financing with a focus on cash flow; accounts receivable facilities; equipment loans or leases; equipment acquisition; facilities build-out and/or expansion; working capital revolving lines of credit; inventory. The firm also provides bridge financing to IPO or mergers and acquisitions or technology acquisition; dividend recapitalizations and other sources of investor liquidity; cash flow financing to protect against share price volatility; competitor acquisition; pre-IPO financing for extra cash on the balance sheet; public company financing to continue asset growth and production capacity; short-term bridge financing; and strategic and intellectual property acquisition financings. It also focuses on customized financing solutions, seed, startups, early stage, emerging growth, mid venture, and late venture financing. The firm invests primarily in structured debt with warrants and, to a lesser extent, in senior debt and equity investments. The firm generally seeks to invest in companies that have been operating for at least six to 12 months prior to

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hercules Capital, Inc reported revenue of $492M in FY2025 versus $281M in FY2021, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was $340M in FY2025, compounding +18.2%/yr from FY2021.

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Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Hercules Capital Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Yahoo Finance · Jul 30, 2026
• Hercules Capital Declares a Total Cash Distribution of $0.47 per Share for the Second Quarter 2026 Yahoo Finance · Jul 28, 2026
• Hercules Capital Closes Institutional Notes Offering of $325.0 Million 6.300% Unsecured Notes due 2031 Yahoo Finance · Jul 24, 2026
• Hercules Capital Prices Institutional Notes Offering of $325.0 Million 6.300% Notes due 2031 Yahoo Finance · Jul 21, 2026

Peer Group

Investment Banking & Investment Services · 17 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.