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HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of HDB Financial Services Limited ₹399, price ₹671, upside -40.5%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · IN

HF Some data Sep 24, 2026

HDB Financial Services Limited

HDBFS · NSE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ₹399.19 · Strongly overvalued (−40%)
!Quality 38/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +14.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·0.60% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/12)
✓Wide moat 67/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 12 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

₹859.22 ₹558.36 Fair Value ₹399.19 Jul 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

15‑month range ₹558.36 – ₹859.22 · fair‑value band ₹216.59 – ₹399.19 · the ₹670.80 price screens above the ₹399.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

HDB Financial Services Limited operates as a non-banking financial company that provides lending and business process outsourcing services in India.

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HDB Financial Services Limited operates as a non-banking financial company that provides lending and business process outsourcing services in India. The company offers personal loans, salaried personal loans, business loans, micro lending loans, auto loans, two-wheeler loans, gold loans, loans against property, enterprise business loans, consumer durable loans, commercial vehicle loans, construction equipment loans, car loans, digital and lifestyle product loans, digital lending, tractor loans, and general and life insurance products. Its BPO services include back-office services, such as forms processing, documents verification, finance and accounting services, and correspondence management; and front office services, consisting of contact center management, outbound marketing, and collection services. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Mumbai, India. HDB Financial Services Limited operates as a subsidiary of HDFC Bank Limited.

Stock analysis

HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) currently trades at ₹670.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹399.19, implying the stock looks roughly 68.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹419.42 per share, and 1 of the 7 models we run sit above the ₹670.80 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹167.12, and 6 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ₹216.59 (bear) to ₹399.19 (bull), the price of ₹670.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

HDB Financial Services Limited reported revenue of ₹181B in FY2026 versus ₹122B in FY2023, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹25.4B in FY2026, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2023.

Key figures

Market cap ₹626B (≈ $6.5B) · P/E ratio 21.1 · P/S ratio 2.96 · EPS (TTM) ₹31.73 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −40%, HDBFS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ₹216.59 Fair Value ₹399.19 Bull ₹399.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹13.45 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings n/a ₹419.42 ₹1,633 70
Residual Income ₹229.31 ₹270.29 ₹534.59 69
P/E Multiple ₹299.39 ₹399.19 ₹498.98 63
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings n/a ₹419.42 ₹1,633 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹208.81 ₹1,066 ₹1,473 61
Lynch FV ₹290.18 ₹414.54 ₹538.90 58
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹299.39 ₹399.19 ₹498.98 63
P/B Multiple ₹261.91 ₹349.21 ₹436.51 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹124.72 ₹167.12 ₹249.44 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹229.31 ₹270.29 ₹534.59 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2023 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 52%

HDBFS screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 332 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −41% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 29% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 42% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 21% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 4.46× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.03× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.08× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)56 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 58
DIVIDEND (yield)12 · sector 65

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Visa Inc V $362.04 $227.35 −37%
Mastercard Incorporated MA $555.89 $356.78 −36%
American Express Company AXP $305.07 $206.40 −32%
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $200.55 $125.36 −37%
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹1,009 ₹1,142 +13%
PayPal Holdings PYPL $52.89 $99.46 +88%
Affirm Holdings AFRM $71.77 $16.24 −77%
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹1,006 ₹1,424 +42%
Synchrony Financial, SYF $72.67 $137.28 +89%
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $17.16 $5.57 −68%

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HDB Financial Services Limited · Fair Value
₹399.19 −68%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HDB Financial Services Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDBFS

Frequently asked questions

Is HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹399.19 versus a price of ₹670.80, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HDBFS?
Our model-based fair value for HDB Financial Services Limited is ₹399.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹670.80.
What is the quality score of HDBFS?
HDB Financial Services Limited has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹399.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹216.59, optimistic scenario ₹399.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HDB Financial Services Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹399.19, about −40% upside versus a price of ₹670.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹216.59, optimistic scenario ₹399.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
HDB Financial Services Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹88.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does HDB Financial Services Limited pay a dividend?
HDB Financial Services Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HDB Financial Services Limited it is ₹399.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹670.80. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HDB Financial Services Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HDBFS trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹670.80, fair value ₹399.19, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDBFS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹670.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹399.19). For HDB Financial Services Limited the two are ₹271.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HDB Financial Services Limited worth?
The market values HDB Financial Services Limited at about ₹626B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹670.80; our models calculate a fair value of ₹399.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDBFS?
Our models span a range for HDB Financial Services Limited: cautious scenario ₹216.59, base ₹399.19, optimistic ₹399.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹670.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDBFS?
HDB Financial Services Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹399.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
Balance-sheet figures for HDB Financial Services Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.0%, debt of 4.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDBFS from its 52-week high?
HDB Financial Services Limited trades at ₹670.80, about 13% below its 52-week high of ₹770.65 and 20% above the low of ₹558.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹399.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HDB Financial Services Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HDB Financial Services Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹670.80, calculated fair value ₹399.19 (−40%), Quality Score 38/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDBFS calculated?
We run HDB Financial Services Limited through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹399.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. HDB Financial Services Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ₹670.80. Our model-based fair value is ₹399.19, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HDB Financial Services Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹399.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (₹216.59 to ₹399.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of HDB Financial Services Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
The market capitalisation of HDB Financial Services Limited is ₹626B (≈ $6.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HDB Financial Services Limited is 2.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
Earnings per share at HDB Financial Services Limited are ₹31.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
The dividend yield of HDB Financial Services Limited is 0.6% (payout 12.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
The net margin of HDB Financial Services Limited is 14.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HDB Financial Services Limited is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HDB Financial Services Limited is 7.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
The operating margin of HDB Financial Services Limited is 41.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
Revenue at HDB Financial Services Limited is growing +20.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS)?
Earnings per share at HDB Financial Services Limited are growing +35.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) generate?
The free cash flow of HDB Financial Services Limited is −₹87.5B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) carry?
The net debt of HDB Financial Services Limited is ₹910B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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