Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Hydrogene De France SA (HDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hydrogene De France SA €4.86, price €2.24, upside +117.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Utilities · FR · ISIN FR0014003VY4

HD Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Hydrogene De France SA

HDF · PA

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value €4.86 · Strongly undervalued (+117%)

!Quality 43/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −12.4 %/yr)

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

!Mixed vs. peers (5/9)

!Narrow moat 14/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear €4.22 to bull €5.51 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 43/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €2.20 – €33.00 · fair‑value band €4.22 – €5.51 · the €2.24 price screens below the €4.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Hydrogène de France focuses on developing hydrogen infrastructure and multi-megawatt fuel cell technology. The company also generates clean electricity; and produces low-carbon hydrogen. It serves heavy maritime and rail mobility sectors, as well as electricity production for public electric grids.

Stock analysis

Hydrogene De France SA (HDF) currently trades at €2.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.86, implying the stock looks roughly 53.9% undervalued today.

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: €4.22 (bear) to €5.51 (bull), the price of €2.24 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Hydrogene De France SA reported revenue of €998K in FY2025 versus €885K in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€5.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €37.9M · P/S ratio 38.0 · EPS (TTM) €−0.3900 · Return on equity −6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.0% · Operating margin 1,187% · Revenue (TTM) €998K · Revenue growth (YoY) −94.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 117%, HDF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €4.22 Fair Value €4.86 Bull €5.51

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

EV/EBITDA €4.23 €4.88 €5.52 67

NCAV (Graham) €2.88 €3.86 €5.76 54

All 2 models by family

Multiples

EV/EBITDA €4.23 €4.88 €5.52 67

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) €2.88 €3.86 €5.76 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 0

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 39

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 0

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 100

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 67

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 73

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 4

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 1

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 78

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−91.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−33.9%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−12.4%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+0.7%

’18

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

28.8% (2020) → −230.6% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

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Compare Hydrogene De France SA with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 208 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 44 · Above median

Fair Value upside +115% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −94% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.52× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 43.23× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 2.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 15

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 14

HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 68

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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China Yangtze Power Co 600900	¥28.08	¥30.89	+10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED	kr 135.75	kr 31.40	−77%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025	¥9.62	¥4.45	−54%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN	₹1,301	₹169.61	−87%
VERBUND AG VER	€62.55	€56.60	−10%
BEP BEP	$29.08	$70.40	+142%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM	€23.56	€14.06	−40%
SDIC Power Holdings 600886	¥14.30	¥17.08	+19%
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905	¥3.64	¥2.40	−34%
EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR	€13.22	€3.67	−72%

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Hydrogene De France SA · Fair Value
€4.86 +54%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Hydrogene De France SA · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">€4.86</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+54%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hydrogene De France SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDF

Frequently asked questions

Is Hydrogene De France SA (HDF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.86 versus a price of €2.24, about +117% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of HDF?

Our model-based fair value for Hydrogene De France SA is €4.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.24.

What is the quality score of HDF?

Hydrogene De France SA has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.22, optimistic scenario €5.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Hydrogene De France SA stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at €4.86, about +117% upside versus a price of €2.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €4.22, optimistic scenario €5.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

Hydrogene De France SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €998K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hydrogene De France SA it is €4.86 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €2.24. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Hydrogene De France SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, HDF trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.24, fair value €4.86, a gap of about +117% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of HDF?

No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.86). For Hydrogene De France SA the two are €2.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Hydrogene De France SA worth?

The market values Hydrogene De France SA at about €37.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €2.24; our models calculate a fair value of €4.86 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDF?

Our models span a range for Hydrogene De France SA: cautious scenario €4.22, base €4.86, optimistic €5.51 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €2.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How solid is the balance sheet of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Hydrogene De France SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −6.6%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is HDF from its 52-week high?

Hydrogene De France SA trades at €2.24, about 51% below its 52-week high of €4.59 and 2% above the low of €2.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.86 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Hydrogene De France SA?

From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Hydrogene De France SA stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €2.24, calculated fair value €4.86 (+117%), Quality Score 43/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of HDF calculated?

We run Hydrogene De France SA through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hydrogene De France SA currently trades 117 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €2.24. Our model-based fair value is €4.86, about +117% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Hydrogene De France SA right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€4.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Hydrogene De France SA

How large is the market capitalisation of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

The market capitalisation of Hydrogene De France SA is €37.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Hydrogene De France SA is 38.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

Earnings per share at Hydrogene De France SA are €−0.3900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the return on equity of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Hydrogene De France SA is −6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hydrogene De France SA is −7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

The operating margin of Hydrogene De France SA is 1,187% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Hydrogene De France SA (HDF)?

Revenue at Hydrogene De France SA is growing −94.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −33.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How much free cash flow does Hydrogene De France SA (HDF) generate?

The free cash flow of Hydrogene De France SA is −€5.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does Hydrogene De France SA (HDF) hold?

Hydrogene De France SA holds more cash than debt, €33.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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