HDF Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · FR · Market cap €37.9M
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +5.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 73% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€4.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.20 – €33.00 · fair‑value band €4.22 – €5.51 · the €2.82 price screens below the €4.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
HDF (HDF) currently trades at €2.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.86, implying the stock looks roughly 72.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €998K. It earns a return on equity of -6.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €33.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €4.22 (bear case) to €5.51 (bull case); at €2.82, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at 73%, HDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€4.88) versus Asset-Based (€3.86). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hydrogène de France Société anonyme focuses on developing hydrogen infrastructure and multi-megawatt fuel cell technology. The company also generates clean electricity; and produces low-carbon hydrogen. It serves heavy maritime and rail mobility sectors, as well as electricity production for public electric grids.
Full company description
Hydrogène de France Société anonyme focuses on developing hydrogen infrastructure and multi-megawatt fuel cell technology. The company also generates clean electricity; and produces low-carbon hydrogen. It serves heavy maritime and rail mobility sectors, as well as electricity production for public electric grids. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Blanquefort, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HDF reported revenue of €998K in FY2025 versus €885K in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€5.7M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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