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The Home Depot, Inc (HDI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Home Depot, Inc €201, price €251, upside -20.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
The Home Depot, Inc
HDI · XETRAOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €200.76 · Overvalued (−20.0%)
!Quality 55/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.8% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 65/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €231.21 – €393.19 · fair‑value band €127.27 – €294.96 · the €250.90 price screens above the €200.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products.
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The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, baths, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, windows, and window coverings. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company serves consumers, such as do-it-yourself homeowners and do-it-for-me customers; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, homebuilders, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors and specialty tradespeople, such as electricians, landscapers, insulation installers, plumbers, painters, pool contractors, roofers, and wallboard and ceiling installers. It sells its products through websites and its mobile applications, including homedepot.com; homedepot.ca and homedepot.com.mx; blinds.com, justblinds.com, and americanblinds.com for custom window coverings; constructionresourcesusa.com or design-oriented surfaces, appliances, and architectural specialty products; thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products; hdsupply.com for maintenance, repair, and operations products and related services; and srsdistribution.com, heritagelandscapesupplygroup.com, heritagepoolsupplygroup.com, and gms.com for roofing and building materials, landscape, and pool products; and The Home Depot stores. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
The Home Depot, Inc (HDI) currently trades at €250.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €200.76, 20.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €254.42 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the €250.90 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €49.79, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €127.27 (bear) to €294.96 (bull), the price of €250.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
The Home Depot, Inc reported revenue of $165B in FY2026 versus $151B in FY2022, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $14.2B in FY2026, compounding −3.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €304B · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) €12.36 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 128% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −20%, HDI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €127.27
Fair Value €200.76
Bull €294.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.64 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€120.06
€224.72
€397.62
77
Growth DCF
€122.49
€213.92
€354.76
76
Owner Earnings
€141.54
€260.25
€456.36
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€120.06
€224.72
€397.62
77
Owner Earnings
€141.54
€260.25
€456.36
74
5Y Revenue Exit
€92.33
€172.56
€275.79
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€133.76
€251.92
€392.11
73
5Y P/E Exit
€138.32
€260.66
€391.82
69
10Y Revenue Exit
€96.41
€174.04
€280.67
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
€127.73
€231.14
€373.54
66
10Y P/E Exit
€130.73
€237.44
€373.31
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€85.84
€297.96
€400.35
64
Lynch FV
€69.10
€98.71
€128.33
61
PEG = 1.0
€69.10
€98.71
€128.33
57
EPV
€106.59
€132.47
€155.47
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€78.50
€171.38
€288.36
65
DDM Multi-Stage
€78.50
€139.36
€178.61
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€208.29
€277.71
€347.14
63
P/S Multiple
€132.17
€176.22
€220.28
58
P/B Multiple
€34.28
€45.70
€57.13
55
EV/EBIT
€211.44
€295.26
€379.09
66
EV/EBITDA
€160.68
€227.59
€294.50
67
EV/Revenue
€83.31
€136.18
€189.05
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€5.71
€7.66
€11.43
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€122.49
€213.92
€354.76
76
Rev-Margin DCF
€92.33
€172.56
€267.74
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€38.26
€49.79
€99.11
72
ROIC Compounder
€118.78
€163.06
€214.78
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€178.09
€254.42
€330.74
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Profitability
82
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
68/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.6% vs 10.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 13%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.4% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.7%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2031 (sales)+3.1%
HDI screens overvalued: fair value 20% below the price. Compare with Lowe's Companies, Inc →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Home Improvement Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lowe's Companies, Inc LOW | $187.26 | $186.20 | −1% |
| Wesfarmers Limited WES | A$74.35 | A$52.00 | −30% |
| Floor & Decor Holdings FND | $47.06 | $27.72 | −41% |
| Mr D.I.Y. Group 5296 | 1.29 MYR | 1.47 MYR | +14% |
| Home Product Center Public Company HMPRO | 6.30 THB | 6.32 THB | +0% |
| Siam Global House Public Company GLOBAL | 6.25 THB | 6.88 THB | +10% |
| Bourrelier Group ALBOU | €67.40 | €76.34 | +13% |
| Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc HVT | $27.95 | $20.42 | −27% |
| Dohome Public Company DOHOME | 3.58 THB | 1.70 THB | −53% |
| Test-Rite International Co 2908 | 22.10 TWD | 4.97 TWD | −78% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is The Home Depot, Inc (HDI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €200.76 versus a price of €250.90, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HDI?
Our model-based fair value for The Home Depot, Inc is €200.76 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €250.90.
What is the quality score of HDI?
The Home Depot, Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €200.76 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €127.27, optimistic scenario €294.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Home Depot, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €200.76, about −20% upside versus a price of €250.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €127.27, optimistic scenario €294.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The Home Depot, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $167B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does The Home Depot, Inc pay a dividend?
The Home Depot, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Home Depot, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +11.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HDI use?
Our models discount The Home Depot, Inc at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Home Depot, Inc that is +11.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Home Depot, Inc (HDI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Home Depot, Inc grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies +11.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Home Depot, Inc (+11.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.50 %: that much free cash flow The Home Depot, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Home Depot, Inc it is €200.76 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €250.90. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Home Depot, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, HDI trades above its calculated fair value: price €250.90, fair value €200.76, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€250.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€200.76). For The Home Depot, Inc the two are €50.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Home Depot, Inc worth?
The market values The Home Depot, Inc at about €304B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €250.90; our models calculate a fair value of €200.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDI?
Our models span a range for The Home Depot, Inc: cautious scenario €127.27, base €200.76, optimistic €294.96 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €250.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is HDI from its 52-week high?
The Home Depot, Inc trades at €250.90, about 24% below its 52-week high of €331.92 and 1% above the low of €247.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €200.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Home Depot, Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Lowe's Companies, Inc, Wesfarmers Limited, Floor & Decor Holdings, Mr D.I.Y. Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Home Depot, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €250.90, calculated fair value €200.76 (−20%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDI calculated?
We run The Home Depot, Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €200.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Home Depot, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €250.90. Our model-based fair value is €200.76, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Home Depot, Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€127.27 to €294.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI) come from?
Earnings per share at The Home Depot, Inc grew +11.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Home Depot, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The market capitalisation of The Home Depot, Inc is €304B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of The Home Depot, Inc is 20.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Home Depot, Inc is 1.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
Earnings per share at The Home Depot, Inc are €12.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The dividend yield of The Home Depot, Inc is 2.8% (payout 56.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The net margin of The Home Depot, Inc is 8.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Home Depot, Inc is 128% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Home Depot, Inc is 26.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
The operating margin of The Home Depot, Inc is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
Revenue at The Home Depot, Inc is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Home Depot, Inc (HDI)?
Earnings per share at The Home Depot, Inc are growing −4.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Home Depot, Inc (HDI) carry?
The net debt of The Home Depot, Inc is $72.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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