Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lowe's Companies Inc stock $186, price $227, that is 18.1% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 18% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 66/100
Generates free cash flow
2.1% dividend yield · Well covered
Positive coverage
Thin margins · 7.4% net margin (TTM)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Mixed vs. peers(6/12)
Moderate moat54/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $5.8M (6M)
Some data
Fair value $186.20 · Overvalued (−18.1%)
Weak Growth(revenue 5y −0.8 %/yr in USD)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Weak DIY spending and sluggish housing market pressuring results🚩Home Depot's Pro ecosystem could take customers🚩Acquisition debt could limit flexibility
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $156.49 – $282.47 · fair‑value band $110.75 – $252.22 · the $227.24 price screens above the $186.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Lowe's Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and Canada. It provides a line of products for construction, maintenance, repair, remodeling, and decorating.
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The company also offers home improvement products, such as appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, lumber, lawn and garden, kitchens and bath, hardware, building materials, millwork, paint, rough plumbing, tools, electrical, flooring, and décor.
In addition, it provides installation services through independent contractors in various product categories; and extended protection plans and repair services.
Further, the company provides design, distribution, and installation services for interior surface finishes to home builders and property managers. It sells its national brand-name merchandise and private brand products to professional customers, individual homeowners, and renters.
The company serves its products through Lowes.com website, mobile applications, retail home improvement stores and outlet stores, and its branches. Lowe's Companies, Inc. was founded in 1921 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) currently trades at $227.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $186.20, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $230.59 per share, and 4 of the 23 models we run sit above the $227.24 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $72.04, and 19 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $110.75 (bear) to $252.22 (bull), the price of $227.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Lowe's Companies Inc reported revenue of $86.3B in FY2026 versus $96.3B in FY2022, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $6.7B in FY2026, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $127B Large · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) $11.83 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.5% · Operating margin 13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −18%, LOW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$110.75Fair Value $186.20Bull$252.22
Price $227.24 · Downside -18.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.34 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.8M and none bought.
SaleMargrethe R VagellEVP, Supply Chain2,500 shares at $223.83$559,575Jun 18, 2026
SaleJuliette Williams PryorEVP, CLO & Corp. Sec.9,330 shares at $224.81$2.1MJun 17, 2026
SaleJanice DupreEVP, Human Resources14,150 shares at $221.90$3.1MJun 16, 2026
SaleQuonta D VanceEVP, Pro & Home Services10,369 shares at $257.54$2.7MMar 4, 2026
SaleMarvin R EllisonChairman, President & CEO, Director18,000 shares at $261.18$4.7MJan 9, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyLawrence SimkinsDirector1,000 shares at $231.06$231,060Nov 24, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.8% vs 15.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale may offer some advantage in the competitive home improvement retail sector, yet limited evidence of a durable moat together with negative shareholder equity remain the main weaknesses.
Main risk: Home Depot's larger Pro customer base and acquisitions of specialty distributors could draw professional contractors away from Lowe's or force it to lower prices and margins on Pro sales.
Bull case: Lowe's could leverage its AI tools and Pro-focused acquisitions to close the gap with Home Depot and capture more contractor business while using its marketplace to expand assortment without added inventory costs.
Bear case: If Home Depot's Pro scale and specialty networks continue to dominate, Lowe's could lose significant Pro revenue share, face sustained margin pressure from price competition and see its shift to professional customers stall amid ongoing DIY weakness.
Lowe's is leaning harder into its Pro contractor business and home services to counter persistent weakness in DIY spending. The latest outlook cut to the low end of prior guidance highlights how a sluggish housing market and cautious consumers continue to weigh on larger projects. Will the Pro shift deliver enough growth to stabilize results, or will macro headwinds pull the whole business lower?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Home Improvement Retail · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−18.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets12.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)13.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Home Improvement Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.2× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.41× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.31× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)9· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)42· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)43· sector 51
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $186.20 versus a price of $227.24, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LOW?
Our model-based fair value for Lowe's Companies Inc is $186.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $227.24.
What is the quality score of LOW?
Lowe's Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $186.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $110.75, optimistic scenario $252.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lowe's Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $186.20, about 18% lower versus a price of $227.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $110.75, optimistic scenario $252.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
Lowe's Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $90.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Lowe's Companies Inc pay a dividend?
Lowe's Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.13% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lowe's Companies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LOW use?
Our models discount Lowe's Companies Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lowe's Companies Inc that is +9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lowe's Companies Inc grew -0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lowe's Companies Inc (+9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.01 %: that much free cash flow Lowe's Companies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lowe's Companies Inc it is $186.20 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $227.24. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lowe's Companies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, LOW trades above its calculated fair value: price $227.24, fair value $186.20, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LOW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($227.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($186.20). For Lowe's Companies Inc the two are $41.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lowe's Companies Inc worth?
The market values Lowe's Companies Inc at about $127B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $227.24; our models calculate a fair value of $186.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LOW?
Our models span a range for Lowe's Companies Inc: cautious scenario $110.75, base $186.20, optimistic $252.22 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $227.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LOW?
Lowe's Companies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $186.20 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2019, FY2023 ex one-offs: 21.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of LOW?
The PEG ratio of Lowe's Companies Inc is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lowe's Companies Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LOW from its 52-week high?
Lowe's Companies Inc trades at $227.24, about 20% below its 52-week high of $282.47 and 27% above the low of $178.37 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $186.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lowe's Companies Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value The Home Depot, Inc, Wesfarmers Limited, Floor & Decor Holdings, Mr D.I.Y. Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lowe's Companies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $227.24, calculated fair value $186.20 (−18%), Quality Score 66/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LOW calculated?
We run Lowe's Companies Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $186.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Lowe's Companies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $227.24. Our model-based fair value is $186.20, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lowe's Companies Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($110.75 to $252.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) come from?
Earnings per share at Lowe's Companies Inc grew +17.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin +4.1 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lowe's Companies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
The market capitalisation of Lowe's Companies Inc is $127B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lowe's Companies Inc is 1.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
Earnings per share at Lowe's Companies Inc are $11.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
The dividend yield of Lowe's Companies Inc is 2.1% (payout 41.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
The net margin of Lowe's Companies Inc is 7.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lowe's Companies Inc is 24.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
The operating margin of Lowe's Companies Inc is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)?
Revenue at Lowe's Companies Inc is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) carry?
The net debt of Lowe's Companies Inc is $43.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026