Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heidelberg Materials AG $36.44, price $33.57, upside +8.6%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.99 – $57.01 · fair‑value band $23.37 – $50.57 · the $33.57 price screens below the $36.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Heidelberg Materials AG, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes cement, aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, and asphalt worldwide.
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Heidelberg Materials AG, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes cement, aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, and asphalt worldwide. The company provides cement products; natural stone aggregates, including sand and gravel; crushed aggregates comprising stone chippings and crushed stones; and ready-mixed concrete for use in the construction of tunnels or bridges, office buildings, or schools, as well as to produce precast concrete parts, such as stairs, ceiling elements, or structural components. It also offers asphalt; and trades in cement, clinker, secondary cementitious materials, solid, alternative fuels, other building materials, and additives. The company was formerly known as HeidelbergCement AG and changed its name to Heidelberg Materials AG in May 2023. Heidelberg Materials AG was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Heidelberg, Germany.
Stock analysis
Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY) currently trades at $33.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.44, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $40.46 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $33.57 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.06, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.37 (bear) to $50.57 (bull), the price of $33.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Heidelberg Materials AG reported revenue of €21.5B in FY2025 versus €18.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding +1.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $37.8B · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) $2.59 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 9%, HDLMY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $23.37Fair Value $36.44Bull $50.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.5% vs 11.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.8% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Heidelberg Materials AG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+18.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heidelberg Materials AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDLMY
Frequently asked questions
Is Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $36.44 versus a price of $33.57, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HDLMY?
Our model-based fair value for Heidelberg Materials AG is $36.44 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.57.
What is the quality score of HDLMY?
Heidelberg Materials AG has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $36.44 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.37, optimistic scenario $50.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heidelberg Materials AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $36.44, about +9% upside versus a price of $33.57 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $23.37, optimistic scenario $50.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
Heidelberg Materials AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €21.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Heidelberg Materials AG pay a dividend?
Heidelberg Materials AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.95% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heidelberg Materials AG would have to grow free cash flow by +5.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HDLMY use?
Our models discount Heidelberg Materials AG at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heidelberg Materials AG that is +5.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Heidelberg Materials AG grew +4.0 % a year. The price currently implies +5.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heidelberg Materials AG (+5.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.74 %: that much free cash flow Heidelberg Materials AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heidelberg Materials AG it is $36.44 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $33.57. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heidelberg Materials AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HDLMY trades below its calculated fair value: price $33.57, fair value $36.44, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDLMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($36.44). For Heidelberg Materials AG the two are $2.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heidelberg Materials AG worth?
The market values Heidelberg Materials AG at about $37.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $33.57; our models calculate a fair value of $36.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDLMY?
Our models span a range for Heidelberg Materials AG: cautious scenario $23.37, base $36.44, optimistic $50.57 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $33.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDLMY?
Heidelberg Materials AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $36.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
What is the PEG ratio of HDLMY?
The PEG ratio of Heidelberg Materials AG is 1.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heidelberg Materials AG (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDLMY from its 52-week high?
Heidelberg Materials AG trades at $33.57, about 41% below its 52-week high of $57.01 and 5% above the low of $32.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $36.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heidelberg Materials AG?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heidelberg Materials AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $33.57, calculated fair value $36.44 (+9%), Quality Score 67/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDLMY calculated?
We run Heidelberg Materials AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $36.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heidelberg Materials AG currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $33.57. Our model-based fair value is $36.44, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heidelberg Materials AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($23.37 to $50.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY) come from?
Earnings per share at Heidelberg Materials AG grew +13.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin +0.7 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Heidelberg Materials AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
The market capitalisation of Heidelberg Materials AG is $37.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heidelberg Materials AG is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberg Materials AG are $2.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
The dividend yield of Heidelberg Materials AG is 2.0% (payout 25.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
The net margin of Heidelberg Materials AG is 8.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heidelberg Materials AG is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heidelberg Materials AG is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
The operating margin of Heidelberg Materials AG is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
Revenue at Heidelberg Materials AG is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberg Materials AG are growing +5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Heidelberg Materials AG (HDLMY) carry?
The net debt of Heidelberg Materials AG is €5.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026