Heineken NV (HEINY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heineken NV $34.77, price $39.25, upside -11.4%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.63 – $55.12 · fair‑value band $20.42 – $50.07 · the $39.25 price screens above the $34.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks.
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Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks. It sells its products under the Heineken, Heineken 0.0, Heineken Silver, Amstel, Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Edelweiss, Lagunitas, Orchard Thieves, Windhoek, Dos Equis, Red Stripe, Kingfisher, Bintang, Gosser, Affligem, Mort Subite, Strongbow, Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, Savanna, Turbo King, Tecate, Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher, Bia Viet, Tiger Crystal, Birra Moretti, Harar, Cruzcampo, Bernini, Legend Stout, Beavertown, Stëlz, Texels, Ladrón, Bandida, Stibitzer, El Aguila, and Murphy's brands. In addition, the company engages in rental of pubs and bars; wholesale activities; and pub management and technical services. The company offers its products to retailers, wholesalers and distributors, bars, restaurants, clubs, cafes, and hotels. Heineken N.V. was incorporated in 1864 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.
Stock analysis
Heineken NV (HEINY) currently trades at $39.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.77, 11.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $33.80 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $39.25 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.98, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.42 (bear) to $50.07 (bull), the price of $39.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Heineken NV reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €21.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $45.0B · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) $1.96 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −11%, HEINY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.42Fair Value $34.77Bull $50.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0454 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 12%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.7% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (70 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−0.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.9% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)13.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heineken NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HEINY
Frequently asked questions
Is Heineken NV (HEINY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.77 versus a price of $39.25, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HEINY?
Our model-based fair value for Heineken NV is $34.77 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.25.
What is the quality score of HEINY?
Heineken NV has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heineken NV (HEINY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.77 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.42, optimistic scenario $50.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heineken NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.77, about −11% upside versus a price of $39.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.42, optimistic scenario $50.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
Heineken NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €28.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Heineken NV pay a dividend?
Heineken NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.84% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Heineken NV (HEINY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heineken NV would have to grow free cash flow by -0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HEINY use?
Our models discount Heineken NV at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heineken NV that is -0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Heineken NV (HEINY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Heineken NV grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies -0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Heineken NV (HEINY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heineken NV (-0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.48 %: that much free cash flow Heineken NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heineken NV it is $34.77 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $39.25. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heineken NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HEINY trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.25, fair value $34.77, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HEINY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.77). For Heineken NV the two are $4.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heineken NV worth?
The market values Heineken NV at about $45.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $39.25; our models calculate a fair value of $34.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HEINY?
Our models span a range for Heineken NV: cautious scenario $20.42, base $34.77, optimistic $50.07 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $39.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HEINY?
Heineken NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
What is the PEG ratio of HEINY?
The PEG ratio of Heineken NV is 1.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heineken NV (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HEINY from its 52-week high?
Heineken NV trades at $39.25, about 16% below its 52-week high of $46.55 and 7% above the low of $36.84 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heineken NV?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heineken NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $39.25, calculated fair value $34.77 (−11%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HEINY calculated?
We run Heineken NV through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heineken NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $39.25. Our model-based fair value is $34.77, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heineken NV right now?
A fairly wide model range ($20.42 to $50.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Heineken NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
The market capitalisation of Heineken NV is $45.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heineken NV is 1.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
Earnings per share at Heineken NV are $1.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
The dividend yield of Heineken NV is 4.8% (payout 96.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
The net margin of Heineken NV is 6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heineken NV is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heineken NV is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heineken NV (HEINY)?
The operating margin of Heineken NV is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heineken NV (HEINY)?
Revenue at Heineken NV is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heineken NV (HEINY)?
Earnings per share at Heineken NV are growing +7.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Heineken NV (HEINY) carry?
The net debt of Heineken NV is €13.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026