Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd A$0.34, price A$1.04, upside -67.3%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6280 – A$1.88 · fair‑value band A$0.2508 – A$0.4590 · the A$1.04 price screens above the A$0.3400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Heartland Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in New Zealand and Australia. It operates through Motor, Reverse Mortgages, Personal Lending, Business, Rural, Australian Banking Group, and Other segments.
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Heartland Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in New Zealand and Australia. It operates through Motor, Reverse Mortgages, Personal Lending, Business, Rural, Australian Banking Group, and Other segments. The company offers motor vehicle finance; reverse mortgage lending; and transactional, home loans, and personal loans to individuals. It also provides term debt, plant and equipment finance, commercial mortgage lending and working capital solutions for small-to-medium sized business; and specialist financial services, including livestock finance, rural mortgage lending, seasonal and working capital financing, and leasing solutions to farmers. Heartland Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1875 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) currently trades at A$1.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3400, implying the stock looks roughly 205.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$0.8000 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$1.04 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.3900, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2508 (bear) to A$0.4590 (bull), the price of A$1.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 251M NZD in FY2025 versus 236M NZD in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was 38.8M NZD in FY2025, compounding −18.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.1B (≈ $747M) · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 2.30 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0700 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 15.5% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −67%, HGH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.2508Fair Value A$0.3400Bull A$0.4590
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0150 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21% vs −9%, slowing
Profit margin 2012 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.143% → 58%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price.
Compare Heartland Group Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−67% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)27% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth55% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.9× · Pricier than median
P/B0.61× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.42× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF10.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heartland Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGH
Frequently asked questions
Is Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3400 versus a price of A$1.04, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HGH?
Our model-based fair value for Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is A$0.3400 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.04.
What is the quality score of HGH?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3400 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2508, optimistic scenario A$0.4590. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heartland Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3400, about −67% upside versus a price of A$1.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2508, optimistic scenario A$0.4590. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 309M NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Heartland Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heartland Group Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HGH use?
Our models discount Heartland Group Holdings Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heartland Group Holdings Ltd that is +2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd grew +4.0 % a year. The price currently implies +2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (+2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.11 %: that much free cash flow Heartland Group Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heartland Group Holdings Ltd it is A$0.3400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$1.04. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heartland Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HGH trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.04, fair value A$0.3400, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3400). For Heartland Group Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.7000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heartland Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Heartland Group Holdings Ltd at about A$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$1.04; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGH?
Our models span a range for Heartland Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.2508, base A$0.3400, optimistic A$0.4590 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$1.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HGH?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGH from its 52-week high?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd trades at A$1.04, about 4% below its 52-week high of A$1.08 and 27% above the low of A$0.8200 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.3400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heartland Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heartland Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$1.04, calculated fair value A$0.3400 (−67%), Quality Score 42/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGH calculated?
We run Heartland Group Holdings Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.3400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Heartland Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was A$1.04. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3400, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heartland Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.4590). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.2508 to A$0.4590) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) come from?
Earnings per share at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd grew −1.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.1 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The market capitalisation of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is A$1.1B (≈ $747M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 2.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Earnings per share at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd are A$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The dividend yield of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 5.3% (payout 78.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The net margin of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 15.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The operating margin of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 45.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Revenue at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is growing +55.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Earnings per share at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd are growing +11.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) carry?
The net debt of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 484M NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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