Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd stock A$0.92, price A$1.02, that is 9.4% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6280 – A$1.88 · fair‑value band A$0.8250 – A$1.00 · the A$1.02 price screens above the A$0.9200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Heartland Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in New Zealand and Australia. It operates through Motor, Reverse Mortgages, Personal Lending, Business, Rural, Australian Banking Group, and Other segments.
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The company offers motor vehicle finance; reverse mortgage lending; and transactional, home loans, and personal loans to individuals.
It also provides term debt, plant and equipment finance, commercial mortgage lending and working capital solutions for small-to-medium sized business; and specialist financial services, including livestock finance, rural mortgage lending, seasonal and working capital financing, and leasing solutions to farmers.
Heartland Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1875 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) currently trades at A$1.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.9200, 9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$1.11 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$1.02 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.5500, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.8250 (bear) to A$1.00 (bull), the price of A$1.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 684M NZD in FY2026 versus 254M NZD in FY2022, a compound +28.1%/yr. Reported net income was 93.2M NZD in FY2026, compounding −0.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$959M (≈ $661M) Small · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 3.63 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0900 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 28.6% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −9%, HGH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.8250Fair Value A$0.9200BullA$1.00
Price A$1.02 · Downside -9.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0072 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+172.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.2% vs 0.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.60% → 19%
Compare Heartland Group Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−9.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)28.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)41.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.3× · Pricier than median
P/B0.89× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.63× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA7.1× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)21· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)58· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 52
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heartland Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGH
Frequently asked questions
Is Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.9200 versus a price of A$1.02, about 9% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HGH?
Our model-based fair value for Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is A$0.9200 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.02.
What is the quality score of HGH?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.9200 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.8250, optimistic scenario A$1.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heartland Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.9200, about 9% lower versus a price of A$1.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.8250, optimistic scenario A$1.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 326M NZD (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Heartland Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 6.90% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.07 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 27, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2019. The payout ratio is 47.6% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heartland Group Holdings Ltd it is A$0.9200 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of A$1.02. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Heartland Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, HGH trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.02, fair value A$0.9200, a gap of about −9% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.9200). For Heartland Group Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.0950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heartland Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Heartland Group Holdings Ltd at about A$959M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is A$1.02; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.9200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGH?
Our models span a range for Heartland Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.8250, base A$0.9200, optimistic A$1.00 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price A$1.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HGH?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.9200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGH from its 52-week high?
Heartland Group Holdings Ltd trades at A$1.02, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$1.11 and 24% above the low of A$0.8200 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.9200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heartland Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heartland Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price A$1.02, calculated fair value A$0.9200 (−9%), Quality Score 39/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGH calculated?
We run Heartland Group Holdings Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.9200 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Heartland Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$1.02. Our model-based fair value is A$0.9200, about 9% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heartland Group Holdings Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) come from?
Earnings per share at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd grew −3.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The market capitalisation of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is A$959M (≈ $661M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 3.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Earnings per share at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd are A$0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The dividend yield of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 6.9% (payout 77.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The net margin of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 28.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
The operating margin of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 41.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Revenue at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH)?
Earnings per share at Heartland Group Holdings Ltd are growing +25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) generate?
The free cash flow of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is −139M NZD (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Heartland Group Holdings Ltd (HGH) carry?
The net debt of Heartland Group Holdings Ltd is 419M NZD (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026