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PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk IDR 60, price IDR 143, upside -57.8%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Utilities · ID

PH Thin data Sep 24, 2026

PT Hero Global Investment Tbk

HGII · JK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 60.40 IDR · Strongly overvalued (−58%)
!Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −11.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
·0.30% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (5/9)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 9 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 6 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

224.26 IDR 111.62 IDR Fair Value 60.40 IDR Jan 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

20‑month range 111.62 IDR – 224.26 IDR · fair‑value band 59.53 IDR – 60.40 IDR · the 143.00 IDR price screens above the 60.40 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

PT Hero Global Investment Tbk an independent power producer company, provides renewable energy solutions in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Minihydro Power Plants and Others. The company operates hydro and biogas power plants. It also provides construction, holding, and management consulting services.

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PT Hero Global Investment Tbk an independent power producer company, provides renewable energy solutions in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Minihydro Power Plants and Others. The company operates hydro and biogas power plants. It also provides construction, holding, and management consulting services. PT Hero Global Investment Tbk was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.

Stock analysis

PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII) currently trades at 143.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 60.40 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 136.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 77.02 IDR per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the 143.00 IDR price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 21.83 IDR, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 59.53 IDR (bear) to 60.40 IDR (bull), the price of 143.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

PT Hero Global Investment Tbk reported revenue of 63.0B IDR in FY2025 versus 91.7B IDR in FY2022, a compound −11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 17.1B IDR in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap 930B IDR (≈ $51.9M) · P/S ratio 12.8 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 27.1% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% · Operating margin 40.2% · Revenue (TTM) 64.2B IDR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −58%, HGII screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 59.53 IDR Fair Value 60.40 IDR Bull 60.40 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 64.84 IDR 73.88 IDR 88.43 IDR 78
Growth DCF 65.71 IDR 74.20 IDR 86.84 IDR 76
Residual Income 73.08 IDR 66.79 IDR 46.22 IDR 73
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 64.84 IDR 73.88 IDR 88.43 IDR 78
5Y Revenue Exit 54.74 IDR 61.78 IDR 71.94 IDR 71
5Y P/E Exit 62.52 IDR 75.23 IDR 90.48 IDR 69
10Y Revenue Exit 59.08 IDR 64.16 IDR 69.23 IDR 65
10Y P/E Exit 63.45 IDR 71.26 IDR 78.51 IDR 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 17.86 IDR 21.83 IDR 24.56 IDR 65
EPV 49.58 IDR 51.92 IDR 53.83 IDR 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 4.88 IDR 5.21 IDR 5.70 IDR 67
DDM Multi-Stage 4.88 IDR 5.64 IDR 6.60 IDR 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple 35.46 IDR 47.29 IDR 59.11 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 18.16 IDR 24.21 IDR 30.27 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 33.49 IDR 44.66 IDR 55.82 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 69.02 IDR 82.02 IDR 95.02 IDR 66
EV/Revenue 46.96 IDR 54.23 IDR 61.49 IDR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 57.48 IDR 77.02 IDR 114.96 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 65.71 IDR 74.20 IDR 86.84 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 54.74 IDR 62.76 IDR 72.54 IDR 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income 73.08 IDR 66.79 IDR 46.22 IDR 73
ROIC Compounder 49.58 IDR 51.92 IDR 53.83 IDR 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 25.20 IDR 36.00 IDR 46.80 IDR 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 8
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 98
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 36%

HGII screens 137% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 208 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −58% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.10× · Lowest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)9 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)6 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥28.08 ¥30.89 +10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 142.20 kr 31.40 −78%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.62 ¥4.45 −54%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,301 ₹169.61 −87%
VERBUND AG VER €62.10 €56.60 −9%
BEP BEP $29.78 $70.40 +136%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €23.56 €14.06 −40%
SDIC Power Holdings 600886 ¥14.30 ¥17.08 +19%
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 ¥3.64 ¥2.40 −34%
EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR €13.22 €3.67 −72%

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PT Hero Global Investment Tbk · Fair Value
60.40 IDR −137%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Hero Global Investment Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGII

Frequently asked questions

Is PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 60.40 IDR versus a price of 143.00 IDR, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HGII?
Our model-based fair value for PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is 60.40 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 143.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of HGII?
PT Hero Global Investment Tbk has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 60.40 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario 59.53 IDR, optimistic scenario 60.40 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Hero Global Investment Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 60.40 IDR, about −58% upside versus a price of 143.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 59.53 IDR, optimistic scenario 60.40 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
PT Hero Global Investment Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 64.2B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does PT Hero Global Investment Tbk pay a dividend?
PT Hero Global Investment Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Hero Global Investment Tbk it is 60.40 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 143.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Hero Global Investment Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HGII trades above its calculated fair value: price 143.00 IDR, fair value 60.40 IDR, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGII?
No. The price is what the market pays today (143.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (60.40 IDR). For PT Hero Global Investment Tbk the two are 82.60 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Hero Global Investment Tbk worth?
The market values PT Hero Global Investment Tbk at about 930B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 143.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 60.40 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGII?
Our models span a range for PT Hero Global Investment Tbk: cautious scenario 59.53 IDR, base 60.40 IDR, optimistic 60.40 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 143.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.3%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGII from its 52-week high?
PT Hero Global Investment Tbk trades at 143.00 IDR, about 20% below its 52-week high of 178.40 IDR and 28% above the low of 111.62 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 60.40 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Hero Global Investment Tbk?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Hero Global Investment Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 143.00 IDR, calculated fair value 60.40 IDR (−58%), Quality Score 60/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGII calculated?
We run PT Hero Global Investment Tbk through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 60.40 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Hero Global Investment Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 143.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 60.40 IDR, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Hero Global Investment Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (60.40 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (59.53 IDR to 60.40 IDR), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk

How large is the market capitalisation of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
The market capitalisation of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is 930B IDR (≈ $51.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is 12.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
The dividend yield of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
The net margin of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is 27.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is 6.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
The operating margin of PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is 40.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
Revenue at PT Hero Global Investment Tbk is growing +27.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Hero Global Investment Tbk (HGII)?
Earnings per share at PT Hero Global Investment Tbk are growing +32.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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