HGII Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · ID · Market cap 793B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 54.23 IDR to 47.29 IDR (−12.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (59.11 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (19 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
19‑month range 111.62 IDR – 224.26 IDR · fair‑value band 35.46 IDR – 59.11 IDR · the 133.00 IDR price screens above the 47.29 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
HGII (HGII) currently trades at 133.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 47.29 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 64.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HGII generated revenue of 60.1B IDR at a net margin of 26.7%. Revenue declined 13.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 35.46 IDR (bear case) to 59.11 IDR (bull case); at 133.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -64%, HGII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (82.55 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (7.41 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when HGII reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Hero Global Investment Tbk an independent power producer company, provides renewable energy solutions in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Minihydro Power Plants and Others. The company operates hydro and biogas power plants. It also provides construction, holding, and management consulting services.
Full company description
PT Hero Global Investment Tbk an independent power producer company, provides renewable energy solutions in Indonesia. It operates through two segments: Minihydro Power Plants and Others. The company operates hydro and biogas power plants. It also provides construction, holding, and management consulting services. PT Hero Global Investment Tbk was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HGII reported revenue of 63.0B IDR in FY2025 versus 91.7B IDR in FY2022, a compound −11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 17.1B IDR in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2022.
HGII screens 64% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
Compare HGII with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Utilities stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is HGII overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of HGII?
What is the quality score of HGII?
What is the revenue of HGII?
What is the net profit margin of HGII?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track HGII and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.